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shermanator

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Posts posted by shermanator

  1. Hello guys, thought i'd give you an update - please see my opening post for background.

    My friend's Grandmother's house had lots of viewings and was under offer within 2 weeks for 410k so her family made an offer for a 2 bed flat in Bromley (asking 250k) which was accepted. Anyway, at more or less the last moment in the process of solicitors the buyers of gran's house wanted another 55k knocked off citing market conditions (they couldn't get a mortgage truthfully) which was rejected so it's back on the market and the vendors of the flat my friend wanted have dropped them - cue tears, arguments, recriminations and solicitors/surveyors fees for nothing.

    Thought i'd share this vignette with you as it relates to the 'buoyant' London market. I wonder how much this scenario is going on now.

  2. Exactly.

    The population of this family has just fallen by one (grandmother died). So instead of three people (grandmother, mother, daughter) living in two houses (grandmother's house, mother's house) there will now be two people (mother, daughter) living in two houses (mother's house, daughter's new flat). This family is not representative of the population as a whole, which is growing!

    The whole transaction is actually HPI negative, as the family is now consuming less housing than before (was 2 houses, now 1 house + 1 flat) so there is more housing supply available for everybody else.

    I note your well argued points. However in this case my friend's aunt who will inherit the other c.200k may use that to help her 2 kids (friend's cousins) who live at home to get a flat themselves so that'll increase demand for little flats ie net demand is up two? (Number of family members has decreased but potential households is up.) Perhaps my anecdotal is silly as many on here think it's rare whereas I thought it was fairly common in London at least.

  3. Can she afford the council tax, up-keep, ground rent, bills, commute to work etc ?

    It's not only the cost of houses that are a problem in this country now thanks to the BoE's inflation generation policy.

    She will probably have to cut down on holidays and other treats for flat upkeep unless she gets a promotion. Her late grandmother's house hasn't been touched for 40 years so the 420k asking price is really plus about 60k. Still on the market after 6 weeks with Winkworths I believe. Lucky her that she has a route out of living at home and that her nan didn't go into a nursing home. I guess her story is like tens of thousands across London/South East; would love to know how many new build flats are being bought like this.

  4. I have a 30 year old female friend who I reckon earns about 20-25k and lives with her parents in Orpington. No savings so has no chance of leaving home - buying or renting. Anyway, her grandmother passed away and 3 bed house in Beckenham is on the market now for 420k. Plan is for this girl's mum to buy her a new build flat in Widmore Rd Bromley for c.250k with the proceeds (got to be split with aunt naturally).

    My point is, this scenario must be replicated countless times over, particularly in London and the South East and has been doing so since year dot one presumes. I wonder how many of these new buildflats are being bought from the proceeds of grandparents passing away and is this trickle down effect doing anything to keep the market from truly tanking?

    PS. I'm a bear and believe the UK is in a deflationary collapse a la Japan but when my friend told me her plan it got me thinking about this sub-section of the market that isn't reliant on mortgages/borrowing.

  5. To repeat the Sage of Omaha "never short the US". Too many natural resources still untapped to lose out in the long run to the Chinese. Plus they have a lot of bombs which helps.

    Well he would say that wouldn't he? I'm one of the few Buffet sceptics - not of his wealth but of his motives and all this home spun schtick is dangerous.

    1. In 2005 he said there was no housing bubble, never talk down America etc.

    2. Self styled free market cheerleader personally counselled Bush and Obama to bail out bust banks thus saving Goldmans.....which he invested in.

    3. Called derivative "financial weapons of mass destruction" but invested in them anyway.

    4. Says Bank of America is a quality business and brand but buys not ordinary stock but preferred stock.

    5. Never short America.......as he buys a railroad company for billions.

  6. Lending has no risk. How many deposit banks have gone bust?

    None. All got rescued.

    B&B, Northern Rock, RBS, HBoS did the bond holders take a hair cut?

    When the Banks lent the Asians billions which went tits up in 97/98 all the western banks got bailout via the IMF, again no losses.

    Banking is a risk free business, which is why lending money to people on welfare checks made sense to get the bonus, when it went wrong the bankers knew they'd get bailed out and get another bonus.

    You have to think like a banker how can I get a bonus.

    Yes but I think now we're seeing the endgame for Lloyd's and HBOS as quoted entities - they're bust and either this year or next they'll be fully nationalised after a bank run or the shares drop even further. Same fate could befall Barclays too.

    Nationalised banks is the endgame as the debts are just too large to sustain.

  7. Strangely, this BBC link on the top ten reasons for the riots doesn't have high house prices amongst the reasons.

    And you thought they would? The elite, of which the BBC are part of, have enjoyed the biggest asset price party erm.....ever in modern times and they're frantically running around wittering on about criminality 'we won't be beaten' blah blah. Tough - their greed of creating two nations within one has come back to bite them in their jacksy. Still it was so unexpected :o

  8. The first person prosecuted for looting in the riots was a 31-year-old primary school teacher, who lives with his parents.

    He's 31, doesn't even earn enough to rent his own pad, let alone save up enough deposit to put down for a house in London. Does anybody else see this as tragic?

    Wind back 30 years. A 31-year-old teacher would have a bright future ahead of them. Possibly married, a couple of their own kids, a nice semi detatched 3-bedroom house in a shiney new housing estate.

    I expect this thread is going to be pretty short, because

    1. The above is obvious, isn't it?; and

    2. I started it.

    Good point but surely the wider point is that the elite (banksters, politicians, media etc) have become so detached from the rest that it's hardly a surprise when a growing underclass, seeing the banks getting bailed out and their measly benefits cut, rebel surely?

    P.S. Some fancy schmancy eatery in Notting Hill got steamed and all some silly Sloane was concerned about was that they'd wrecked the cheese board and the tasting menu stopped at the 4th course.

  9. Just answered a question over the riots, around 14:04 today and said we've got low interest rates because the markets have confidence in the UK and austerity measures.

    Seems like this is a statement Cameron will regret making.

    Cameron's an idiot and economically illiterate. UK yields are low (and getting lower) because the markets have woken up to the fact that there'll be no growth in the UK for many years. Remind what yields are on Japanese debt and their interest rates too........

  10. Yes but cant be "bovvered" with political point scoring and other time wasting games.

    Its time for less words and more actions!

    Businesses for example, need to step up to the plate, take on more youngsters to help guide them in life becuase its a mistake to chase profit exclusively like its a mistake to chase GDP(turnover) and ignore profit, its about balance, ie creating workers who can spend some money, to increase the money velocity in the UK.

    Theres 5% of GDP sat in british bank accounts belonging to large and small businesses, they need to spend some money to take on part time and full time staff, becuase only a collective and concertive action will speed up the recovery of the UK.

    Its going to take time for businesses to commit to these investments but early adopters will be rewarded much like being first to market rewards the adventurers.

    5% of GDP and we are worrying and moaning about slow growth? British businesses collectively have themselves to blame in part for the slow down in the economy, just like the 125% LTV Northern Rock customers & other liar loan customers have their share of the blame for the UK having to bail out the British Banks!

    It couldnt be simpler, we are all in it together, but spend wisely and invest wisely and life will be good! :)

    Hahaha, oh wait you're serious? Nice line from the Adam Smith Istitute or whatever that group of neo Socialist bail out fetishists have morphed into these days (hint "we're all in this together" tosh is a dead giveaway). Have you asked yourself why companies are sitting on billions? It's because even those ivory towered fat cats realise the UK has recently entered a lost decade or more of anaemic growth, quite similar to Japan. This fact alone will bring down Eton Dave and the new Labour government as the sheeple crave 'growth' above everything.

    The banks should've been permitted to go bust in 2008 (interesting the Tories free market waffle went out the window then) but the elite propped them up creating zombie banks. Oh dear :( *

    * :rolleyes:

  11. It's discussed enough in this thread. I can understand the fear of some people but fear impedes the thinking process.

    You are worried about your property but have no thought for those who are being royally shafted by the authorities and the majority of the population who vote for them. You want tougher police action but forget that one cause of the riots is loss of legitimacy experienced by the police due to unwarranted brutality and violence (physical and psychological) at political protests among other things. You want the law to be enforced to its fullest extent on these twats but forget that the law doesn't seem to apply to its most predatory members (MP and bankers and similar) and those kids are smart enough to know it.

    Put things in perspective, it's not just about you you you. If anything this kind of selfish attitude is what is leading to a breakdown of society. When that happens, unsurprisingly, everyone ends up paying a heavy price for it.

    I'm inclined to agree with a lot of that. Watching the various Ministers trot out the same load of meaningless platitudes about criminality, communities etc is pretty nauseating considering their total inertia regarding Bankster largesse and an elite that doesn't play by the rules. It's the whole Mumsnet syndrome me me me - they don't give a hoot about societal breakdown until it hits them. How many people condemning the rioters live in Lego set in the sky overlooking Canary Wharf where trillions have been squandered to prop up a tiny layer at the top?

    There was an opportunity in 2008 to make an example of the Banksters, it wasn't taken and here's the result folks.

  12. How long before Libya/Afghanistan/Iran ask for a UN resolution to send in troops to protect the civilian population?

    Hahaha. Apparantly Iran is advising its citizens against travelling to the UK.

    Still, I'm sure Eton 'we're all this together' Dave will sort it out :unsure:

  13. Peston has said all eyes on the Fed who might be able to get share prices up apparently.

    More free money for the bankers should fix it!

    The Banksters sure didn't like Obama's 'USA will always be a triple aaa' nation guff. Everyone knows they're only interested in more QE, like a junkie with heroin. Unless and until that happens expect more falls - unless the PPT step in of course.

    P.S. A good friend who runs a small mutual fund in America lost $1m yesterday.

  14. According to Doomberg, the banks are awash with the stuff...Bank of some American silly name is now charging for people to deposit cash.

    course, Bernanke is coming to the rescue with incentives for the banks to lend this out....which was what they were supposed to do with QE1, 2, etc etc.

    They didnt, cos no-one wants their loans....so bankers bought commodities and shares, and here we are today...QE, created no wealth whatsoever.

    Fact is QE created no wage inflation whatsoever (bar Banksters) and that's a fact that all these inflationistas blithely ignore. Without wage inflation there won't be any 'recovereh'. Bob Prechter reckons it's the deflationary collapse no matter how much money is printed as the vast majority of debt is in Dollars and can never be paid back.

  15. What proportion of the economy are Hotels & Restaurants? not 75%

    Whether that 75% figure is alarming or not depends entirely on how it is comprised. Does the production of software (for example) count as "services" or is it "manufacturing"? What about R&D/intellectual property activities for global pharma companies?

    The temptation for people on here to mindlessly grab a statistic and start extrapolating from it is on a par with the BBC :(

    Perhaps if you lumped leisure together with 'financial services' you'd get a pretty high figure which is why the stellar manufacturing figures are just a statistical irrelevence. For the past 30 years the UK has put all its ends in the service basket which itself relied on ever expanding debt - well the party's stopped. Like street urchins with their noses pressed up against a wealthy merchant's window, the British can only gaze enviously at German high end manufacturing unable to keep pace with demand while their workers enjoy healthy pay rises.

  16. If I were in charge:

    (1) Make RBS and Lloyds agree that no employee shall be paid more than £150k per year.

    (2) Announce that as of Jan 1st 2012 no banking group other than Lloyds or RBS shall have a tax payer backed gurantee for deposits

    (3) Announce that as of Jan 1st 2012 there will be no limits on what banks can do with the money invested within them - if you do not want your money gambled with then move it to RBS or Lloyds

    (4) Hear the other banks scream about socialism and illegal state support

    (5) Laugh

    Wholly sensible suggestions, pity they weren't introduced in 2008. As I said at the time, nationalised banks endgame has been postponed not cancelled.

  17. +1......and they would be pretty close to the mark.

    Let's not forget it was Thatcher who ushered in this debt is wealth and money shuffling house of cards that has brought Britain to its knees. She spawned Blair and the lunatic Brown with their talk of the 'new' economy of services. By the way, I used to be a massive cheerleader of hers when in the Young Conservatives. The French and Germans are laughing their heads at the plight of the UK and the hubris which accompanied their lecturing on the 'miracle economy'.

    PS. Doesn't seem the Libyan adventure is exactly doing a Falklands and my friends tell me, no one in Britain gives a fig about the 'Royal' wedding unlike '81. Quick the Bread and Circuses isn't working anymore :lol:

  18. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Barclays-move-headquarters-reuters_molt-3191307034.html?x=0

    13:29, Wednesday 30 March 2011
    NEW YORK (Xetra: A0DKRK - news) (Reuters) - Barclays Plc is considering moving its global headquarters from London to New York due to the threat of higher capital requirements in the UK, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.
    The bank has had preliminary conversations with U.S. regulatory officials on a move and is conducting an analysis of whether switching its domicile makes sense, the newspaper reported, citing a person involved in the process.

    I wonder if "Bob" will generate a transfer bonus for the inconvenience of the move? I am a bit suspicious that this may be a threat as the US regulators are not as bankster-friendly as our lot.

    Empty threats in advance of the IBC so they can keep their de facto taxpayer guarantee. Any government worth a bean would call the Banksters bluff and tell them to naff off - while demanding immediate repayment of all bail out and SLS monies on their way out - rest assured the Coalition shower is no such government.

    Wealth creators? What a load of tosh - they cost us hundreds of billions for heavens' sake.

  19. British holidays always end up being more expensive, partly because the weather is crap - especially in the West. All those things to keep kids amused when it's pissing down ain't chopped liver - museums, galleries, theme parks, 'shopping', spending all day in the pub at £3.50 a pint etc. Beach holidays are ultra cheap because you're not spending during the day, sunbathing and swimming is free! Even with the cost of flights it'll work out cheaper......and better.

  20. Not quite. Money seems to be spent more efficiently than what I can see in the UK.

    For the unfamiliar, French councillors don't get paid anywhere near their UK counterparts. Teachers, lawyers, firemen, policemen etc also get lower pay. Doctors (GPs') as well. I guess the spread of wealth in France may be more even? In saying that, like most western countries, the gap between high/low earners has been increasing over the last 20yrs.

    Oh, and did I mention that the benefits paid to the unemployed/single mums/ and housing benefit are less?

    Not paradise in France - but the tax is not as crippling as the UK media likes to imply....

    A good summary of the relative meritis of France vs UK. I've recently made the move and it's the best decision I've made. It's not for everyone though - the cultures are very different and the French have retained a bien peasant class who are more intelligent than most of the English middle classes; the British just have chavs sadly. Took my car into the garage and had a conversation about French cinema and Bernard Henri Levy - just imagine going into your local garage and engaging in anything higher than football or getting drunk. As I say, not for everyone.

    France hasn't been hit too badly by the recession/depression as they didn't buy into this debt is wealth nonsense, so beloved by the Anglo Saxons and they have the highest birthrate in Europe which bodes well for future growth (if not necessarily social cohesion). Rents outside of the major conurbations are cheap as are prices - forget Paris as it's London crazy with a relatively few old families owning vast swathes without any borrowings. Finally, as the above poster points out, tax is actually lower than the UK now, for vastly superior services.

    Oh and I'm not footing the blank cheque for Banksters that you meekly agreed to.

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