Pablo

There certainly aren't many people in London with those numbers behind them.

It might be because he is also privy to some data we can't see, it is quite a change of heart to move from "softening" to actually defining that drops will occur.

Thanks, just 1 more post after this one. The badge is nearly earnt.

I just posted a new post about this, but typically it needs to be reviewed by an adminstrator.... :/ The couple admitted they were taking a 'big risk' and were relying on house prices going up. Also forgetting interest rate changes... This will all go horribly wrong when interest rates do go up, how mind bendingly stupid or perhaps deperate do people need to be. They surely know they will be defaulting on payments when interest rates go up.

Interesting... I just spotted that BBC News ran a video on how huge swathes of FTB'ers are taking 40 year mortgages. The filmed family said they are 'taking a big risk' and basically relying on house prices going up. Also forgetting that interest rates will go up in the future and house price growth is collapsing. Odd for BBC to run this piece imo...is sentiment changing?

Interesting report from knight Frank via LinkedIn https://lnkd.in/eutyDT2

From the people I know, I wouldn't bet that the headline is wrong. I have a few friends who are BTL'ers and a couple of them bought more properties before the deadline, another one finally bought his own flat after running his family's portfolio (no doubt a few properties have been put in his name in the past). Of the 3 main buy to let friends I have (with portfolios of over 4-5 houses), their views are: 1) The largest with many properties around London - 'Prices are crazy and cannot continue' - No intention to sell as they bought many years ago and could absorb any falls, although oddly he didn't really know much if anything about the tax changes coming ! 2) A few p

I must admit I am a little surprised, I thought the pre April BTL buying spree would have resulted in some 'strong figures' and then it would fall over the coming months.

Just read in the Business Live section of the BBC News App. Apparently FTSE 100 is being dragged down by house builders, with both Berkeley and Barratt dropping.

Seeing an increasing number of BTL properties hitting the market and desperation. Example of BTL: I genuinely cannot recall a 90 SQM property there for under £500k in the last 2 years, note the comment "PRICED TO SELL" - http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-58709399.html?onetime_savedPropertyId=58709399#summary58709399 Desperation: The £515k property http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=POSTCODE^1270585&maxBedrooms=2&minBedrooms=2&maxPrice=550000&minPrice=500000&numberOfPropertiesPerPage=24&radius=1.0&sortType=1&index=0&viewType=LIST This one almost pops up daily in my rightmove updates, multiple agents ( I think 4 at one point), 550k to 535k to 515k. Still over last years values though, as a 55sqm of similar refurb condition went for £49x.xx with a full 125 year lease.

HOUSING SHOCK: Top London house prices take huge hit as capital's market CRUMBLES http://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/658040/HOUSING-SHOCK-Top-London-house-prices-take-huge-hit-as-capital-s-market-CRUMBLES

Ignore the headline, it focuses on how the cheaper boroughs are fueling the growth we are seeing and reflecting the increased levels of stock, buyers are being pickier due to less certainty in the property market and expect discounts http://www.cityam.com/237213/rightmove-cheapest-boroughs-fuel-11-per-cent-rise-in-london-house-prices-as-one-agent-warns-it-now-takes-46-years-to-save-for-a-deposit

London's property market is heading for a fall http://money.aol.co.uk/2016/03/13/london-s-property-market-is-heading-for-a-fall/

"London’s tumbling house prices" (I can’t read due to lack of subscription but an interesting title) http://moneyweek.com/londons-tumbling-house-prices/ "Property House Market Warning - London house prices set to crumble" http://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/651529/Property-market-WARNING-House-prices-in-London-to-crumble-amid-tax-changes

Prices to fall after April - I can't recall having see this in the wider press before. http://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/649494/House-prices-set-to-fall-after-April-warn-experts

3) Real struggles for new build premium What we really need to start seeing are more properties hitting the market from BTL and a bit of competition to sell. When those discounts become wide spread and more importantly known by the layman. I think you will see sentiment change. People at the moment are oblivious to what is happening around them and buying out of fear, however there is going fear and understanding of some of the factors that could reverse the trend. Particularly with BTL'ers.

Presumably you mean the bubble started in 2012, rather than another bubble on top of 2012. If so I concur, but this bubble does appear to be slowing/deflating what with. 1) Brexit fears 2) Chinese/Russians pulling out 3) BTL Taxation Resulting in: 1) More property hitting the market 2) Prices actually dropping to levels I haven't seen around NW6/W9 for around 13-14 months %2

We just need to see all these luxury homes drops impact the sub £700k properties. I have seen some changes in Zone 2, where prices are occasionally dropping back to figures not seen for over 12 months e.g. Warwick Ave/Kentish, however nothing widescale yet. I am guessing that those looking to BTL will have missed their chance now to buy (unless cash purchases), so we should hopefully see some interesting news over the next few months combined with those BTL'ers looking to pull out (although this may be slower than expected due to people being on fixed mortgage terms?), potential for Brexit, Global economic fears e.t.c

Also it seems HMRC are waking up and going after BTL'ers, a friend of my girlfriend called a few days ago saying that her parents received a letter about undisclosed rental income and are now chasing up the missing tax. I wonder if the HMRC investigations are increasingly recently? As it does seem that the Government are clamping down on BTL given recent changes to taxation/stamp duty e.t.c.

I see these every now and then, but why do people by and then sell for similar money a few months later? E.g. they bought this in Oct 2015 at £505k (+£15k stamp duty, +£1.5k legal) then lets say 2% estate agent fees? thats £10k. Total = £531k, now they are trying to sell at £530k. Presumably to cover their costs? Genuine circumstances? Buy to let gone wrong?

Out of interest and just trying to refresh my memory. Does anyone have a graph/table showing current and historic sales volumes in London?

And that's per month, e.g £1550 to £1750/month

You are quite lucky, some are getting £200-300 increases each year.

Even with that drop and resulting loss, it’s still cheaper than renting. Based on a ‘back of fag packet calc’ e.g. If you compare a 2 bed flat in zone 1-3 fo £600k , versus £1600-1700 rent a month for a one bed in Zone 2 (i.e £96k over 5 years !! and this is likely to go up and up each year)

To add to my £600k note above, the interest saving would be about £21k over 5 years on £240k So ultimately in the event of a drop, you could be mitigating £61k (£40k + £21k) of a £100k loss Does my logic work, or have I missed something ?