Pablo
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Posts posted by Pablo
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19 minutes ago, Stewy said:
The papers are full of mortgage/interest rate cut news today.
Proper bull food. Look away now. 🫢
Alot of it is hyperbole or priced in a few weeks ago from what I can see.
The amount of news feeds coming up about rate cuts on mortgages, e.g. there was something about Halifax substantially dropping rates from something like 5.2% to 4.8%, the day before another bank...the day before e.t.c e.t.c but what it fails to say is that those rates are still far behind the the lower 4.2-4.5% rates that were available after the last BOE decision/inflation stat when the market priced in their prediction of drops. When I see the still currently high 4.23% on a 5 year and 4.68% on a 2 year move substantively (which haven't moved in 1-2 weeks as the best rates) then it's all just noise for the sake of news.
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In my area, house prices are down 15-20% on peak asking, absolutely nothing was selling for the last few months although about 3 weeks ago 4 properties just went in a week but that trend hasn't continued.
I think the variance comes from, some areas still being more bouyant than others - perhaps those with better affordability or on the flip side so expensive these people don't worry about a mortgage as cash buyers. However there are large swathes that are very much down, it just doesn't show well in these reports particularly when at much lower volumes to previous years.
EDIT: Just saw a link to home.co.uk that has more specific data by area and property type. That says my areas average asking price has tanked 28% from 1.64m to 1.17m, with detached homes taking the biggest hit as new listings of detached homes in my area are up 46% since this time last year.
Just my 2 pence.
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24 minutes ago, The_Stars_Are_Aligning said:
I wish! Used to lease, up until COVID, with some lovely vehicles that were outside of my willingness/risk to purchase, but prices have now gone up considerably. I now take your line of owning an old car and maintaining/cleaning it to an impeccable standard and, most importantly, enjoying it so that it'll last at least another 6 odd years.
A premium vehicle to me is a recent high-end Jaguar, Land Rover, Porsche, Tesla, BMW, Merc and Audi etc. Often discuss with friends the prices of Porsche 911s and not seeing the crash in values on Porsche used/authorized sale prices - yet?
Porsche 911's are largely dropping from what I saw/read, I sold one in 2022 (That sold for 30% over what I paid) and it fell about 15-20% from what I sold it for.... There are large threads about multiple variants (991/992e.t.c) dropping in the dealerships on the Porsche/car forums. Even the most desirable GT cars have gone from £30-40k over list to below or on list. It's just simply that car prices ballooned over Covid due to mass shortage, now that's largely better and people can't afford it or are more cautious without the low interest rates...prices fall. Cars are a more liquid asset than housing, so even though house prices have dropped in my area quite noticeably, it was nothing as quick or decisive as car prices.
My own car in point, when the 911 was sold it was sold to replace with family wheels. I could see the market was wildly over valued but managed to find a good enough deal in August 22.
As as example, nearly all used cars of the type/model/spec (Merc SUV) I bought, was around £34.5k at the time. I paid £31k (but then due to some issues ending up with about £2.5k of compensation). So I paid about £28.5k + 4 year warranty in the end. Recently the same year car as mine (but a year later of course) with the same mileage can be found with a bit of patience for £27.5k, so a £7k drop in less than a year from the normal price) or from my perspective about a 1k drop (which isn't bad given I benefited on the sale of my 911).
The same has happened with friends/family cars that equally had to be bought at the same time, X3M40i, Sportage, Lexus RX e.t.c (all over 20k). Not sure about the sub £20k/£10k/£5k market.
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Absolutely nothing selling around here for months and months. I really do think it's hard to generalise with property, every area is different. House prices just keep dropping here in south east London, but may be more boyant elsewhere.
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Very interesting, thanks.
I knew things were bad around here (south london) but the sea of red that emerging is now finally starting to come through (for deals agreed as far away as July)
Places selling for 'just' 6% above their 2011 sold values which in nominal terms is a 34% loss, ouch.
or 6-8% below its 2021 sold value.
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This is much lower a drop than what I have seen in South London, I think we are arguably already 15% down here and more in other cases. The beauty of averages and delayed data.
e.g this isn't just to make ripples for this forum but I have seen property in 5 camps
1) New build property i.e 5-6 large premium detached homes in a row, 4 of 5 sold during the low interest period and the remaining one is now on at 17% less than previously
2) A number of properties have had large and significant drops, this isn't just property that started it's pricing in the clouds (vs rest of market) and then dropped to reasonable levels. Quite a few of them are now down to their 2018/19 sold prices and some much earlier. These are desirable detached properties but £1.4m plus i.e you need to typically have the cash or be very highly leveraged at today's interest rates....
3) The number of property withdrawals even when they get on or close to their 2018/2019 (and other earlier pricing) prices is soaring, estate agents now have a new battle with sellers i.e putting a guide of x to x plus 100k, what that normally means is the agent thinks it's worth closer to x, the seller thinks x plus 100k, and when no-one offers at the higher end it gets pulled or the seller refuses a viewing even if you try to view at lower guide price....then it takes 1-2 months before reality sets in and if they need to move it on, it comes back on at the previously suggested price, but then the market has moved down again. Definitely a period of adjustment for sellers from what I am seeing.
4) Even the very most desirable property on the best streets now aren't selling, arguably these should be the ones that bypass the price drops because they are the best streets and desirable detached properties. Of 2 that I looked at, that fit this category...both sat languishing there
5) The less desirable properties sometimes oddly do go STC after a very long time on market - I can only put this down to....there must have been some serious reductions made under asking to close it, as it just doesnt make sense.
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35 minutes ago, sell2rent said:
I thought the bigger houses were sluggish until I looked at one the other day which went under offer to a cash buyer for full asking price on the first day viewings were available. It is area specific and most in this range here are sitting unsold for months or even years. This one was 30% more expensive than it sold for 2 years ago after some improvements, but I thought it was worth about 10% more than it sold for 2 years ago. It was better priced than some and I think is the exception.
Around here they are beyond sluggish Z3/4 London.
From what I can see in the market.
Anything sub £1m seems to be moving (albiet slowly) if desirable and well priced
Anything £1-1.4m is very slow but towards the lower end of that desirable properties will eventually move after a discount or two. I have seen property here reduced from £1.35m to £1.25m to £1.1m, it is a somewhat common trend.
Anything £1.4m to £2.5m is getting absolutely hammered. I have already seen multiple drops from £2.4m to £1.75m often putting that within £100k of its 2018 value and one instance of about £200k above 2005 on a £1.3m+ house.
To me it does seem that desirability is obviously key but anything that requires a high level of £ debt or results in a difficult LTV situation, those properties are really struggling as the cost to service that debt is equally now very high compared to 1-2 years ago. I would say we are easily back to pre-covid here and if not a bit more in this area, with a few more of the keener sellers taking a hit i.e death, divorce e.t.c
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28 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:
On reflection, I am quite pleased to hear this! It shows desperation and futility.
If true, this isn't going to be a temp measure so there shouldn't be a mass stampede into the EA offices ala 2020. Besides, those who did engage in that are probably enjoying buyers regrets as I type.
This will mean that I will pay less when I buy.
HPI was caused by cheap credit and I think we can all see that coming to an end PDQ.
The cost of a Mortgage will far out weigh any savings here...as will the cost of food and energy.
Plus, at some point they are going to have to pay back the loans they are taking out.
Between now and Kwartangs Budget speech we have two very relevant IR hikes. I am sure he thinks he knows what is going to happen, and I am sure that he has done his best to leak details of his speech to the markets. However, these are turbulent times. I think the chances of a suck back on some policies next week is quite high.
I thought the same.
This appears to be a more permanent change.
It should drive liquidity in the market, i.e even more supply at a time when supply is already on the up, but mortgage rates are holding back buyer interest.
Being permanent rather than a window should help stop the surge but we also know people are generally a bit thick and there will probably be some that rush in (if they can afford the mortgage)
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There has been some massively bearish news articles which has not been a surprise. This one is interesting also.
https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2022/08/will-housing-market-crash-50-year-mortgages?
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Definitely what I saw a few months ago in a few parts of South east London I track, everything from £650k terraced to £2m homes has been struggling to sell. About 4-5 properties come on each day, of my saved properties about 5 of 40 have sold. 4 were SSTC and returned back to market. Over 50% of properties are being reduced (albeit only by £25-50k). The prices are about the same as what they were pre pandemic in my price band, it's just during the pandemic they were flying and on the odd really special property they would go over but that is absolutely not the case now.
Land reg seems to match as it showed -0.9% for London in March, if it's anything like this area that will continue month on month to varying degrees.
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SE London is very different, about 4-5 properties coming on each day.
Only properties on the very best roads are going, they are doing the whole 15-20 viewings in day here but the properties are still there 1-2 weeks later. Only one property has gone on the listing weekend but that was on the very best road in the area where it was such a rare listing that people would almost pay anything.
95% of properties are coming on at about their March 2021 asking price values, 1 or 2 are about £5-15k higher (but on £1.2-1.5m houses) and still not sold. There was one example where someone listed and SSTC at £1m before Xmas, that sale fell through and is now asking £1.2m with an open day this weekend. There is absolutely no way that will go, unless it's a naive to area buyer who doesn't spot there is a big value difference between two postcodes/previously sold prices.
So no real pressure here. I am personally expecting cost of living, sentiment, increased mortgage costs e.t.c dragging the market down. All this supposed frenetic demand that even my local agents talk about, just isn't converting into SSTC and it will only get worse.
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Yep absolutely stacks of those, our rent would have been 2350 when we moved it but moved in Dec at 2100. Now it's £1600.
Not far from St John's wood
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My rent in a very nice part of West London is down 25%, the landlord barely put up a fight when he saw all the local property at the new levels.
How far west are you? Rents definitely fallen in expensive parts of Zone 2
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My rent in a very nice part of West London is down 25%, the landlord barely put up a fight when he saw all the local property at the new levels.
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Henry was forecasting falls in q4 2020 before the stamp duty bung, he isn't an overt bull is he?
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I am on the look out but seeing lots of variance across London and out of London
Flats have fallen from the mid end, typically down from a £620k at peak to about £535k, and still sitting there.
Then I have been looking around areas like Beckenham and down the thameslink towards Redhill, Beckenham is more resilient but other areas have fallen back substantially to 2014-2016 numbers. Which does mean £2-300k savings from peak on £1m+ .
Some houseprices.io examples... where property sells for what it did about 4 years ago but losing money due to inflation/stamp duty/fees e.t.c e.g W11 in London
I notice that quite a lot of the drops that come through aren't necessarily below what the owners paid but on the money or within 10% of what they paid 4-7years ago. This is quite a shift given the huge 'on paper' gains just 2 years ago.
Date Price Nominal
changeReal
change02 Aug 2019 £1,500,000 0.0% -11.0% 03 Sep 2015 £1,500,000 140.0% 118.3% Then we have just 70k over 2011 prices ! W11 in London
Date Price Nominal
changeReal
change29 Jul 2019 £740,000 10.5% -12.6% 31 Jan 2011 £670,000 55.8% 27.1% 45k over 2008
Date Price Nominal
changeReal
change30 May 2019 £345,000 15.0% -16.6% 31 Jan 2008 £300,000 180.4% 119.7% 21 Dec 1998 £107,000 n/a n/a -
On 10/09/2019 at 17:49, A17 said:
Could it be the sold price was for the building, and now they are selling individual flats?
Also check out the basis £179 Ikea bed. Really fitting the property price tag.
I thought that was the case....but it's not !
It's was a maisonette and still is...
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There's loads of massive falls all over London.
Back to 2008/2009 numbers e.g.
Flat 5, 4, Little Green, Richmond, Greater London TW9 1QH
£1,175,000 Flat, Leasehold, Residential 11 Dec 2018
£1,300,000 Flat, Leasehold, Residential 30 Nov 2010
£1,100,000 Flat, Leasehold, Residential 07 Mar 2007Second example: below 2011 with inflation, and probably 2012/13 value if looking at face value
Address: Flat 4, 17 Aldridge Road Villas,
London, W11 1BL
Date Sold for Nominal Change Real Change with inflation
03 Dec 2018 £1,245,000 13.2% -5.7%
30 Sep 2011 £1,100,000 249.2% 176.8%
Third example is below 2012 at face value and closer to 20% down on 2012 with inflation
Flat 1, 25 Elgin Crescent,
London, W11 2JD
Date Sold for Nominal Change Real Change with inflation
02 Nov 2018 £1,800,000 -8.2% -21.2%
10 Sep 2012 £1,960,000 321.5% 175.3%
Even sub £600k is getting mullered.
Flat 10A, Lanark Mansions, 12, Lanark Road,
London, W9 1DB
Date Sold for Nominal Change Real Change with inflation
11 Dec 2018 £515,000 22.6% -7.1%
11 Jul 2008 £420,000 50.0% 29.8% -
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Sam, you are probably similar to me in many respects.
I started small time goods trading before I was 15, built this into a successful SME (but still emphasis on the small). Moved away from this when Ebay and direct shipping became the norm and I am now a young senior leader in the private sector.
Long story short, I started looking at a first property a few years back in the south west as I could afford it but thought it was overpriced. The reality is, if I bit then I would have had a home for a few years and made some money on it and not the loss I anticipated. C'est la vie
Since then I have rented/live in London and remain continually frustrated that on paper it looks like I am in the top 1% e.t.c but it rarely feels like that when you can only sensibly afford a large 2 bed flat in Zone 1/2. Or a average semi 3/4 bed house on the outskirts but one that is rather standard and not representative of what people who have played the game, made it to the top should be looking at. It does feel that you have to have been in the game before 2008 or frankly laundering money to feel like you have any success.
The fact that a senior leader is looking at property that those on much lesser salaries could afford just 10+ years ago shows the market is dysfunctional (i.e property that was 350k up for £1.2 million now), and I think leads many young folk into a world of 'whats the point'. So I feel for you.
In terms of nice cars e.t.c, I have only ever bought for cash but there was a stat that something like 96% of new Mercedes sold in the UK are financed/leased. That probably tells you everything, a world where everything is priced 'by the month' in a drive to try and show off to neighbours.
In terms of hope though, the south east continues to get hit and a prime example of this was back in 2016 when I was looking to buy in London, something that was £650k then, is closer to £500-520k now. The fat is being taken out of the market and the real drops are starting to come through. It is a tricky game though, who knows when/where they will land.
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3 minutes ago, SOLZHENITSYN said:
Makes sense. House prices have risen globally (broad generalisation) in line with other asset prices in response to globally low interest rates and QE money. As rates rise and liquidity is withdrawn then those prices will fall. The central banks will be hoping the majority of the fall will be in real terms rather than nominal, buts let’s see...
Absolutely, a positive to see it written down for public consumption though.
So with base rate held, where now for mortgages?
in House prices and the economy
Posted
Given the signals that BOE sent today i.e. that it's more inclined to reduce interest rates.
What do we think will happen to interest rates, are swap rates already starting to change?