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Pablo

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  1. Given the signals that BOE sent today i.e. that it's more inclined to reduce interest rates. What do we think will happen to interest rates, are swap rates already starting to change?
  2. Alot of it is hyperbole or priced in a few weeks ago from what I can see. The amount of news feeds coming up about rate cuts on mortgages, e.g. there was something about Halifax substantially dropping rates from something like 5.2% to 4.8%, the day before another bank...the day before e.t.c e.t.c but what it fails to say is that those rates are still far behind the the lower 4.2-4.5% rates that were available after the last BOE decision/inflation stat when the market priced in their prediction of drops. When I see the still currently high 4.23% on a 5 year and 4.68% on a 2 year move substantively (which haven't moved in 1-2 weeks as the best rates) then it's all just noise for the sake of news.
  3. In my area, house prices are down 15-20% on peak asking, absolutely nothing was selling for the last few months although about 3 weeks ago 4 properties just went in a week but that trend hasn't continued. I think the variance comes from, some areas still being more bouyant than others - perhaps those with better affordability or on the flip side so expensive these people don't worry about a mortgage as cash buyers. However there are large swathes that are very much down, it just doesn't show well in these reports particularly when at much lower volumes to previous years. EDIT: Just saw a link to home.co.uk that has more specific data by area and property type. That says my areas average asking price has tanked 28% from 1.64m to 1.17m, with detached homes taking the biggest hit as new listings of detached homes in my area are up 46% since this time last year. Just my 2 pence.
  4. Porsche 911's are largely dropping from what I saw/read, I sold one in 2022 (That sold for 30% over what I paid) and it fell about 15-20% from what I sold it for.... There are large threads about multiple variants (991/992e.t.c) dropping in the dealerships on the Porsche/car forums. Even the most desirable GT cars have gone from £30-40k over list to below or on list. It's just simply that car prices ballooned over Covid due to mass shortage, now that's largely better and people can't afford it or are more cautious without the low interest rates...prices fall. Cars are a more liquid asset than housing, so even though house prices have dropped in my area quite noticeably, it was nothing as quick or decisive as car prices. My own car in point, when the 911 was sold it was sold to replace with family wheels. I could see the market was wildly over valued but managed to find a good enough deal in August 22. As as example, nearly all used cars of the type/model/spec (Merc SUV) I bought, was around £34.5k at the time. I paid £31k (but then due to some issues ending up with about £2.5k of compensation). So I paid about £28.5k + 4 year warranty in the end. Recently the same year car as mine (but a year later of course) with the same mileage can be found with a bit of patience for £27.5k, so a £7k drop in less than a year from the normal price) or from my perspective about a 1k drop (which isn't bad given I benefited on the sale of my 911). The same has happened with friends/family cars that equally had to be bought at the same time, X3M40i, Sportage, Lexus RX e.t.c (all over 20k). Not sure about the sub £20k/£10k/£5k market.
  5. Absolutely nothing selling around here for months and months. I really do think it's hard to generalise with property, every area is different. House prices just keep dropping here in south east London, but may be more boyant elsewhere.
  6. Very interesting, thanks. I knew things were bad around here (south london) but the sea of red that emerging is now finally starting to come through (for deals agreed as far away as July) Places selling for 'just' 6% above their 2011 sold values which in nominal terms is a 34% loss, ouch. or 6-8% below its 2021 sold value.
  7. This is much lower a drop than what I have seen in South London, I think we are arguably already 15% down here and more in other cases. The beauty of averages and delayed data. e.g this isn't just to make ripples for this forum but I have seen property in 5 camps 1) New build property i.e 5-6 large premium detached homes in a row, 4 of 5 sold during the low interest period and the remaining one is now on at 17% less than previously 2) A number of properties have had large and significant drops, this isn't just property that started it's pricing in the clouds (vs rest of market) and then dropped to reasonable levels. Quite a few of them are now down to their 2018/19 sold prices and some much earlier. These are desirable detached properties but £1.4m plus i.e you need to typically have the cash or be very highly leveraged at today's interest rates.... 3) The number of property withdrawals even when they get on or close to their 2018/2019 (and other earlier pricing) prices is soaring, estate agents now have a new battle with sellers i.e putting a guide of x to x plus 100k, what that normally means is the agent thinks it's worth closer to x, the seller thinks x plus 100k, and when no-one offers at the higher end it gets pulled or the seller refuses a viewing even if you try to view at lower guide price....then it takes 1-2 months before reality sets in and if they need to move it on, it comes back on at the previously suggested price, but then the market has moved down again. Definitely a period of adjustment for sellers from what I am seeing. 4) Even the very most desirable property on the best streets now aren't selling, arguably these should be the ones that bypass the price drops because they are the best streets and desirable detached properties. Of 2 that I looked at, that fit this category...both sat languishing there 5) The less desirable properties sometimes oddly do go STC after a very long time on market - I can only put this down to....there must have been some serious reductions made under asking to close it, as it just doesnt make sense.
  8. Around here they are beyond sluggish Z3/4 London. From what I can see in the market. Anything sub £1m seems to be moving (albiet slowly) if desirable and well priced Anything £1-1.4m is very slow but towards the lower end of that desirable properties will eventually move after a discount or two. I have seen property here reduced from £1.35m to £1.25m to £1.1m, it is a somewhat common trend. Anything £1.4m to £2.5m is getting absolutely hammered. I have already seen multiple drops from £2.4m to £1.75m often putting that within £100k of its 2018 value and one instance of about £200k above 2005 on a £1.3m+ house. To me it does seem that desirability is obviously key but anything that requires a high level of £ debt or results in a difficult LTV situation, those properties are really struggling as the cost to service that debt is equally now very high compared to 1-2 years ago. I would say we are easily back to pre-covid here and if not a bit more in this area, with a few more of the keener sellers taking a hit i.e death, divorce e.t.c
  9. I thought the same. This appears to be a more permanent change. It should drive liquidity in the market, i.e even more supply at a time when supply is already on the up, but mortgage rates are holding back buyer interest. Being permanent rather than a window should help stop the surge but we also know people are generally a bit thick and there will probably be some that rush in (if they can afford the mortgage)
  10. There has been some massively bearish news articles which has not been a surprise. This one is interesting also. https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2022/08/will-housing-market-crash-50-year-mortgages?
  11. Definitely what I saw a few months ago in a few parts of South east London I track, everything from £650k terraced to £2m homes has been struggling to sell. About 4-5 properties come on each day, of my saved properties about 5 of 40 have sold. 4 were SSTC and returned back to market. Over 50% of properties are being reduced (albeit only by £25-50k). The prices are about the same as what they were pre pandemic in my price band, it's just during the pandemic they were flying and on the odd really special property they would go over but that is absolutely not the case now. Land reg seems to match as it showed -0.9% for London in March, if it's anything like this area that will continue month on month to varying degrees.
  12. SE London is very different, about 4-5 properties coming on each day. Only properties on the very best roads are going, they are doing the whole 15-20 viewings in day here but the properties are still there 1-2 weeks later. Only one property has gone on the listing weekend but that was on the very best road in the area where it was such a rare listing that people would almost pay anything. 95% of properties are coming on at about their March 2021 asking price values, 1 or 2 are about £5-15k higher (but on £1.2-1.5m houses) and still not sold. There was one example where someone listed and SSTC at £1m before Xmas, that sale fell through and is now asking £1.2m with an open day this weekend. There is absolutely no way that will go, unless it's a naive to area buyer who doesn't spot there is a big value difference between two postcodes/previously sold prices. So no real pressure here. I am personally expecting cost of living, sentiment, increased mortgage costs e.t.c dragging the market down. All this supposed frenetic demand that even my local agents talk about, just isn't converting into SSTC and it will only get worse.
  13. Yep absolutely stacks of those, our rent would have been 2350 when we moved it but moved in Dec at 2100. Now it's £1600. Not far from St John's wood
  14. How far west are you? Rents definitely fallen in expensive parts of Zone 2
  15. My rent in a very nice part of West London is down 25%, the landlord barely put up a fight when he saw all the local property at the new levels.
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