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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by OnlyMe

  1. The exercise in derriere covering begins before the shit hits the fan. Wait for the "well it has surprised us how far it has fallen" in a few years. They created the destabilising bubble in the economy, they know its ultimate demise.
  2. Van, Got it in one. You will never hear the building societites say this though - not until they have milked the market for all the future interest rate payments they can.
  3. Keefter, A chart relative to earnings is useful - as it shows relative valuation - mind you it all depends on whether the chart is plotted against real average earnings or those put down on an application form, not wuite sure about this one: The chart looks like an expanding megaphone. Overshoot to the upside, overshoot to the down side.
  4. Nearly a million manufacturing jobs lost since Labour came to power despite having created £500Bn of debt to fund consumption. Of course Blair knows nothing about economics, it's all Gordon's doing.
  5. Maybe they can't sell the ones that they are already building. Could be just lip gloss - yeah mr. stockmarket, we'd planned to shrink our business this year anyway - look we told you back in September.
  6. Ripperuk, You can hardly be surprised at a few bulletin board posters taking the issue likely when the thief that calls himself the chancellor of this country is raiding pensions of £5bn+ a year and for reasons of political expediency - i.e. winning the next election is allowing debt to balloon and savings to rot.
  7. Chancer, Check out the stats: Box 1 Page 20 http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/fsr/fsrfull0406.pdf
  8. It's a one way street for the majority, and that is up. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/3615952.stm One in three face council tax rise Council tax bills for 2005/6 will be sent out early next year One in every three homeowners in Wales faces higher council tax bills next year after revaluation of properties. It will mean 33% of homes going up a band, and only 8% moving down.
  9. Spot on Andy. Just one observation, I think you could have improved the title a little, maybe it should have been titled "Borrowed Economy". The piece deserves a wider audience than this. Why not send it to the FT for potenital submission in the letters page. I wonder if they would dare to print it. it may be a little close to the truth for comfort.
  10. We've had growth all right, £500,000,000,000 (ish) growth in debt since 1997, growth in unfunded liabilities such as PFI and future pension requirements of the growing public sector and growth in taxation.
  11. Bubble Pricker, LOL, wait and see. Of course you are correct, did a search and last year's came top of the list and I missed the date, THIS July it stood at £10.4Bn ;-).
  12. Bruno, Good point about neutral rates. Debt increase is about 3 times that of the late 90's minus a little for inflation. The current base rate is still expansionary, the rates last year were just plain reckless.
  13. With record additional personal debt in September of £10.7 Billion I reckon they will probably hold, satisfied in the full knowledge that they have debt under control. It's the roaring 00's, LOL.
  14. London-loser. Only a small fall is needed to change the dynamics of the economy. We have an economy that is now reliant on extra debt being sucked out of notional house prices in order to fund expenditure to provide "growth". If there is a cause to the crash there really will only be one main theme - too much debt, overstrecthed borrowers and lack of savings to make up the shortfall. The central bankers have created this scenario worldwide, I'd like to know what their long term plan is? Maybe they don't have one, just myopic short term policies.
  15. I'd be more inclined to place a bet that the £ is nearer it's peak than borrowing costs. Going to need a huge fall in the £ to rebalance asset diffentials between the UK and nearly every other country in the world. Giess what happens to rates if/when it happens. That's of course if the assets don't rebase themselves. There's no way out of this mess now.
  16. TTRTR, I'm not saying that the employees won't be able to transfer and be put on govt funded jobs. I'm saying that the house builders (if the directors want to keep their fat salaries, expanding pensions, and the value of their share holdings up) will have to do whatever is necessary to keep turnover and profit as high as possible, if they don't and duck out the stock market will just value them on the cash in the bank and that's it and the market will also factor in the cost of carrying the remaining staff, running expenses etc etc. Most (if not all of the major housbuilders are listed on the stock exchange) and the investors play a large part in company psychology - it's grow or die, and I don't see many voting for the die option. As for land banks, well their value is related to whatever the current market valuations dictate, if they are going to just sit on them they run real risks of losing serious amounts of money if the market moves away from them, much better to churn.
  17. TTRTR, Generally the housebuilding companies are not civil construction companies, neither are they geared up to do the work - they don't have the skills necessary within the company to perform those tasks, neither are they easily available cheaply in the market place and neither do they have a track record in say big PFI construction work. If they sacked their staff / contract workers and just invested the money their turnover would be decimated, gone would be the 30/50% mark up on housing and it would be hello 5%. The market would crucify such a move. Also many are sitting on large land banks, some wil be old and cheap, a lot won't. In a falling market these land banks are likely to depreciate, better to build and extract the value - or maybe sell off the part of the land bank. I think we may be seeing a little off this now. Wait and see what the build rates are like for this year in comparison with recent years.
  18. TTRTR, <i>builders will concentrate on other things & new builds will stop. </i> Err, like what? Will they be starting their own hedge funds, opening chains of hair salons? I know BKL have announced a sideways shift into "urban regeneration", but it is tantamount to the same thing, except in a different market niche (as well as returning cash to investors). The market does not like shrinking companies, if anything the builders will increase volume in an attempt to maintain turnover, either that or they will have to make significant cuts in their fixed cost base to compensate, get rid of perks etc etc.
  19. Gavin, I thought I'd look up on the web on the "Judas Cow", I found a couple of snippets. I probably know more about the slaughtering process than I really wanted now. However, being a meat eater and cosseted from the facts of modern day industrial make unhappy bedfellows. As for BTL, are you talking Corn Fed Beef or Sheep - we may see all manner of behaviour? To my mind the market is looking suspiciously "Corn Fed", although we could get a break-out of "Sheep" later. Any sensitive readers might wish not to read futher! >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <i>Corned beef is cut from the haunches of cattle that are raised exclusively on corn in the feed lots. In addition to being 100% corn fed (this is FDA certified), the corned beef develops its distinctive flavor from the slaughtering method. You and sis may not know this but most cattle are killed at the slaughter house by a knock on the head with a mallet. The sudden shock of the blow to the head causes a release of adrenaline just before the cattle expire. Adrenaline makes the meat a little chewy and would destroy the corned beef taste. The corn fed beefs are led to the slaughter area by a Judas cow, and when they arrive inside the slaughter area a man called the "cattle calmer"* quietly slides on the beef's back. He starts to massage the neck muscles of the beef, and as the animal becomes relaxed he slips a velvet covered hawser around the neck of the corn fed beef and *slowly* strangles the animal. The slow demise of the beef results in a relaxed death, and the muscles of the animal remain soft and flavorful. It's a labor intensive process, and it's one of the reasons why good corned beef costs so much.</i> <i>The special gun they use is an air gun Loki with a bolt that is shot out by pressurised air. , sounds like we have much the same system, but it can leave them terribly injured and has to be used again, I don't think the stockyards or abattoir would want people to know just how frightened the cattle are and how often they have to reshoot one. they use a Judas cow to lead the cattle into the facilities, one who will not be killed but will give the cattle some sort of sense of safety, but the nearer they get to the smell of blood, the more panicked they get. English stock yards, are as painless as its possible to be before the cows are killed, they even have a vet on the premises who checks out the animals for sickness beforehand, they are clean, and the blood is steam cleaned into gutters, but the smell lingers, its even strong enough for humans to smell. and react to, and humans do react to the smell of fresh blood, some even panic , sheep are the worst they can kill themselves trying to get away from the smell.</i>
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