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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. You are mistaken. The economy is highly sensitive to interest rates and becoming more so each passing year. No they are not. The economy is in recession. Then you will know this economic situation is nothing like it. Utter ******** - have you walked down the average UK High St lately? Why? Who "books" holidays these days? Ah, so the mass unemployment is not down to economic conditions, it is down to people just not trying ruddy well hard enough to accommodate Victorian shopping practices. This is ********. We are in one QED. No it doesn't. Forgetting all those hou
  2. Yeah, it did implode and it will again if rates rise a few percent. Why do you think the BoE is pushing on string? Or do you think they fiddle the inflation figures like the numpties on the gold thread? This is complete b****cks - and if you want to walk through the numbers, I would be happy to hold your hand (after you have carried out your initial analysis - start by obtaining numbers for cash on deposit and mortgages outstanding and go from there.) Also, are we really expected to have sympathy for the creditor class? That usurious bunch of scumbags who expect to receive money for jus
  3. I think you're bang on the money there Bosh - about 2.5% would do it.
  4. The red line is a line of "best-fit" to the limited data set of the last forty years of Nationwide data. The average % "trend" rise therefore changes over time. Currently it is falling along with real house prices. (It is now in fact 2.8% rather than 2.9%.) The truth is that there is no trend increase (Why should there be?) - the long term (ie using data over 100+ years) "red line" is horizontal. That is, we can expect real house prices to fall back to around £80k. As an aside, the Nationwide data and reporting also embeds the idea that the house price to income ratio should mean reve
  5. Broadly correct, although I take issue with your assertion that Japan hasn't done its fair share of QE. "The Bank of Japan (BOJ) increased the commercial bank current account balance from ¥5 trillion yen to ¥35 trillion (approximately US$300 billion) over a 4 year period starting in March 2001. As well, the BOJ tripled the quantity of long-term Japan government bonds it could purchase on a monthly basis. In early October 2010, the BOJ announced that it would examine the purchase of ¥5 trillion (US$60 billion) in assets. This was an attempt to push the value of the yen versus the US dollar dow
  6. Currency devaluation is not under direct government control but default is. Look at recent attempts to weaken the yen. These have been almost entirely offset by similar policies of other governments trying to weaken their own currencies. It is not so much that the Japanese government even chooses to default as much as it is the inevitable outcome. That is, it is only the mechanism of default that is at question, not whether or not it will happen. Somehow the grossed up Japanese balance sheet will start to net off. Debt in Japan has been shifted away from the private sector by the state an
  7. +1 but with only a limited jubilee in the offing (albeit via various mechanisms), the change in dynamic is incentivised to come mainly via a process of shifting private debt ownership into government debt ownership so that default is made against the public rather than by the public. That is, in a politically controllable way rather than in a socially disorderly way - ie the societal preference. This is done by the government running deficits to allow people to pay down private debt - effectively under-taxation. Government debt ownership meanwhile is controlled and enforced either by direc
  8. Pretty much the embodiment of manic thinking...combine this with paranoia (rigged government stats, secret cabals etc)...and voila, you too can become a bona fide bi-polar tin-foil-hat-wearing gold bug...
  9. Re means testing, benefit fraud/tax evasion often is simple to perpetrate...but be careful...make sure you have secured the complicity of your beneficiaries...and whatever you do...don't...under any circumstances...publicise your fraud on the Internet...you don't want to end up like Lauren Hill.
  10. Yes, this first flaw on its own is enough to show that house prices are substantially overpriced. The dual income argument is also obviously completely flawed. Not only that, the proportion of single person aka single income households is forecast to rise even further in the future. Your calculations and assumptions have clearly shown just how much house prices need to fall....but I would keep these to yourself when doing viewings unless you can use the information via feedback to encourage your clients to drop their prices. You get paid on volume...and the good times cannot roll again u
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