Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by teddyboy

  1. This is unbelieveable!!!!! Why is it that anyone who shows any sign of Nationalism or Patriotism that they are racist???? FFS THIS IS OUR COUNTRY!!!! For us to want it to remain British is not racism!!! Any other country in the world would not bend over backwards for its immigrants as we do - why do people come here? Becuase we let them! We are the furtherst west of ALL the European countries. Those seeking asylum should go to their NEAREST neighbouring country for refuge. Those that wish to come over here for work should have to offer something for the country! Those polish workers are dragging down our wages - how the f*ck is that good for the country? I am sorry, but anyone that thinks the immigration policies of this shyte government are right - needs a kick up the @ss! CONTROL IMMIGRATION and it's viable but like everything else that this government has done - its OUT OF CONTROL! Was in Casino last night and heard so many polish accents - BIRD'S were fit though TB
  2. F%$&!! I do hope the Saudi's still have enough money to buy Liverpool Football Club. If not - IRAQ here we come ;-)
  3. L17 - Liverpool Total for sale 308 last 7 days = 13 4% It looks f*cking dead round here TB
  4. Welcome Stew! To be fair, there are a lot of people on here that little or NO knowledge of economics and have picked it up as wwe moved along. I had none whatsoever (still heven't ) BUT you can ALWAYS ask someone to explain something in 'Leymans-terms'. The economic side of this debate is what really interests me the most. GREED is such an important player in this BUBBLE and I personally think that this GREED will be its downfall. I posted somewhere earlier that we hear 'NO MORE BOOM AND BUST' a lot nowadays. And the general public percieve this as 'the government will not allow it to bust'. THEY ALLOWED IT TO BOOM so they have to accept that it will BUST. This could have be controlled in mid 2005 and they dropped IR's when they should not have. I believe that this action made the bubble bigger and therefore the Bust will be bigger. Never be afraid to ask someone to clarify something... they are a helpful lot on here you know and not the DOOM-MONGERS that some people make them out to be. TB
  5. Although I think this post is reasonable I do feel that RB is missing the point. I agree that those who have bought in the last 2-3 year with a HIGH LTV and other debts are the ONLY ones likely to be forced to sell. Alongside them is your BTL's which I think will be under pressure from the Finaciers when prices start to drop. But there is something that you have failed to highlight. PEOPLE WILL BE SCARED TO TAKE ON DEBT! Buy a house in 2005 and it was almost guaranteed to be worth more in 2006. So from a lenders POV and a Borrowers, if times get tough I can sell it and pay back the bank and make a bit of money. Move forward now and see that IR's are rising and the trend is UP! People will not want to borrow. Those moving up the chain will say sod it I aint taking a risk and the FTB's are now even further away from owning a home. The lenders would also be wary about borrowing a high LTV on something that is depreciating in value. I can see Mortgages moving to 90% LTV in the coming 18 months. This means a FTB would require £15,000 deposit plus all fees to buy. Granted Higher Interest Rates will make saving a more favourable thing but it would still take time to save that sort of money in this HIGH INFLATION environment. It's all a vicious circle. HIGHER INFLATION>HIGHER WAGES>BUSINESSES CANNOT SUPPORT WAGE DEMANDS>REDUNDANCIES>UNEMPLOYMENT UP>LESS SPENT ON HIGH STREET>UNEMPLOYMENT UP AGAIN>CREDIT TIGHTENING>IVA'S AND BANKRUPTCY GO THROUGH THE ROOF>REPOSSESSIONS UP>HOUSE PRICES FREE FALL>LENDERS WORRY THAT THE PROPERTY SECURED ON THEIR LOANS IS FALLING SO CALL IN DEBTS. It looks like fantasy but it is so gonna happen. The thing in all of this is greed. The lenders do not give a flying f*ck about throwing someone out of their home. All's the care about is getting their money back. Sentiment has changed BIG STYLE and it will take a lot for it to get bullish again. There is NO DOUBTING that the housing market has rallied because of CITY BONUSES and UNUSUALLY LOW IR's but THEY GOT GREEDY!!!! No more BOOM and BUST? We hear this more and more today .... NO MORE BOOM AND BUST???? They say it because they wont ALLOW a bust! Why the f*ck did they allow the BOOM then? :angry: Anyone who thinks that you can allow something to Boom to the extent that housing has, without a bust, is absolutely DELUDED imho. TB
  6. This would only apply if you got a long term fixed rate! Historically the average for IR's is around 7-8% so they are still low in comparison. The downside is, this isWHY house Prices are soo high. I would sooner borrow £70K at 8% (thats how much the flat would be worth then imho) with the likelehood of IR's dropping than borrow at 4.5% for an overpriced flat and the likelehood of rates rising. your example shows that RATES can rise but houses will NOT DROP becuase of it ARE YOU MAD???? TB
  7. Pisses me off this!!!! On nearly every simile they use the average house price. £175-£225K but when it comes to how much the rise affects us they use £100K as a figure!!!! The truth is that instead of the rise costing £16 pcm if they used the average price for FTB (£152K I believe) it would show that the rise was £22.65 or if they use the average cost of a house £175K is £26.08 and £225K is 33.53 This is PER 0.25% increase!!!! So dont tell me when rates reach close to 6%, that it aint gonna hurt??? TB
  8. 2.9% I think they will show that they are fighting inflation JUST IN TIME - NOT JUST TOO LATE! Listen, this governement and everyone around them, are SPIN MERCHANTS. If they published the truth we would RIOT! TB * this was posted without seeing RB post 2 above. But you should never believe everything you read anyway
  9. At last we have a rational Bull with constructive comments. Great response RBull - I tend to agree with most of what you say. My references to the papers was the herd mentality of the country. You only have to see the papers and there is 4-5 pages of Celebrity Big Brother, including the headline. People nowadays just pay whatever they have to pay with no questions asked. Insurances, for example, are the biggest rip off ever. I would geustimate that 75%+ of the population just renew their insurance coz they cant be @rsed looking around. The majority of the time they could get it cheaper and the insurers KNOW THIS!!! They strange thing is, the NEW CUSTOMERS get a better deal in the majority of cases so why be loyal to an insurer? I am with e-sure and every year they send me a renewal and I then try elsewhere. I can honestly say that every year e-sure have been the cheapest. I have never had an accident of claim in 20 years of driving so they know its easy money. But if someone WAS cheaper then I would phone them and tell that I can get it cheaper elsewhere are they going to revise the quote? You dont ask - you dont get! So there are companies that are so called 'ripping people off'. I dont share this view - its the people that are ALLOWING themselves to be ripped off. Thats why I think the majority of dumb! As to your comment about being obsesses with property on here. I dont uite think this is the case. I think the difference between a HPC'r and the general public is that were savvy to the possible flaws in the market. We all argue about the triggers but common sense tells us that prices are high because a) House prices only rise - TV, MEDIA, VI'S tell us this all the time be) Gordon Brown has pumped more money into the economy to bolster the prices c) IR's are unusually low d) People are panic buying e) Sentiment is bullish I think us guys and gals know that EVERYONE of them can change. I believe that they will ALL CHANGE. It will take all of them to change, for a full on crash of mass proportions. a) Certainly the media are starting to publicise the key factors but I still think they are reporting it in a bullish way be) This is starting to stop but I fear it is way too late. There is no more money left to borrow c) Rising all the time and the trend is up! 6% base rate by 2008 is optimistic - I think we could see 6.75% by YE 2008 d) People will not buy because of the IR's and will see prices DROP. The longer they leave it - the more time they have to save and get a good return. By this time prices will be lower. I also believe that rents will be lower. There will be a LOT of voids in BTL and I think that they will reduce the rent to get someone in to try and recoup some of their losses. e) The tide is turning Oh one final one - CREDIT TIGHTENING. I think the number of bankruptcies and IVA is going to ROCKET in the next 2 years. The banks will start to tighten their belts. We will also see mortgages coming down to a minimum of 95% LTV or even LESS!!! Especially when the property they wil be lending on, is depreciating. I was not referring to HPI as such. I can see riots for a number of reasons. a) Immigration - the number of people who are getting replaced by cheaper immigrants is rising. I know I would NOT be happy if it happened to me. I can see some serious violence that will escalate because of this. I think when people are getting their homes repossessed and the I/O scam (Endowment renamed) is exposed. I can see an uprising against the government. Call this a radical view, but there are a LOT of people out there who are going to lose EVERYTHING. Enough in my opinion to cause unrest. As usual, it will be someone else's fault. The banks, government and CC are going to get the blame. They FORCED them all to spend more than they earn. To sum up though. All's that I WANT is sanity to come back into the market. GET RID OF SPECULATIVE BUYERS. Housing is for living. Yes - they will make you money in the long term but if GB wanted no more boom and bust why the f*ck did he and the BOE allow 20% HPI and 10% HPI. This causes a bubble and it is not surprising that a crash is HIGHLY likely now. I know that I will NOT accept a 2% pay rise - If I get one. I will demand a lot more!!! Let people buy a home and not an investment. The housebuilders in my area of Liverpool are building flats all the time coz they can get a BTL's to pay the stupid figures they want. They know that if they built a house, it would struggle to sell becuase it is out of the reach of a FTB. Build homes for FTB at a FTB price!!! TB
  10. Marina, Everything you say is absolutely correct!!!! How people can disagree amazes me. BUT..... we are such a minority in this country! Unless the masses start thinking like us it is futile. FOR EG: HPC = Users online 174 NTLhell - Users online 972 Xbox Scene = Users online 978 More people are interested in leisure things than their biggest monthly outgoing cost - RENT and MORTGAGE. We live a society of complete f*ckwits who are getting screwed by everyone and and are that thick, that they dont even realise it!!! I hate TODAYS BRITAIN! It's pretencious beyond belief. Headlines about Beckham getting richer, Britney showing her baldy **** and "The [email protected] have put up IR's so my BTL yield is going to be less". How can anyone compete with this mentality??? The only way that these bell-ends will complain is when their houses are being repossessed and then they will blame the government, banks and the sort. YES IT WAS THEM - BUT YOU ALLOWED IT YOU DICKHEADS!!!! Like most things in life - people won't realise it, until its too late. I would say though - If we DO NOT have riots in this country in the next five years I WILL BE VERY SURPRISED! TB
  11. Yer [email protected] Still fecking crying Was our reserves though - means we deffo need to strengthen the squad and get rid of Jertzy!!!
  12. I think this is one of the most valuable aspects of this site. When I joined I was MESMORISED by all the information but it was put over in such a good way. Dr. Bubb, for example, was the poster that took me most by surprise. I am a sucker for graphs, trends and all things mathematical. So when I saw some of his posts I thought, "dya know what - this isn't full of dreamers", there is actually some foundations to their beliefs. I took all data with a pinch of salt and started researching myself and I found that COMMON SENSE pointed to a correction. I form my own decisions... I am not one of those posters that shoots down all the bulls. If their comments are valid, plausible and well put across then I will counter-argue with them (the way its should be). If they just come on - like 'firsttimebuyer' with the attitude of 'they wont go down.... because.... erm.. coz the government wont let them. Then I will ridicule them. We also have the other side in RealistBear. Whilst his posts are mainly excellent... he is constantly ridiculed for being selective in what he posts. If its reported that this month houses had dropped 0.2 YoY then he is correct to say that they have droppped o.2% YoY. But as people point out, they are still 6.8% higher than last year. This is because, like it or not, HPI was plus last year! So its a bullish market. When they collapse and start to recover the opposite happens. ECONOMICALLY - HPI at this level is UNSUSTAINABLE!!!! I think this site, amongst others, just points out to us what the majority do not realise! If every person in the UK spent one day looking at this site and the WIKI then I can guarantee that they will wake up and smell the coffee. I have said for some time now that the British populous consists of 95% F*ckwits! Harsh statement, but its true. They are now waking up to the NuLabour scam and the financial scams. IO mortgage = Endowment Mortgage (REBADGED). Whether prices drop and by how much really depends on the British Public and NO ONE ELSE! Thats why I believe, like the OP, this site is very useful. Yeah, of course I want sanity in the market, but enlightening someone to the dangers ahead and being proved right is soooooooo satisfying. I predicted IR's being 6% by end 2007 some 12 months ago and I was laughed at. I also bet £50 that HP's on the Nationwide Index would be lower YoY in August 2006 - so August 2007 I will tell you if I am right. Listen, WE ALL LEARN from this site. From newbies to Veterans. Keep up the lively debate, its actually very interesting an addictive. WORD OF WARNING!!! Spend too much time on here and when there is bad news it can be deflating. Also good news like Thursday should be taken with Caution. Imagine it as the feeling when you get dealt a full house in poker. You want to scream but you just have to keep it under your hat because someone else could still have 4 of a kind! When you start hearing JOE PUBLIC talking about 'its gonna pop' - Thats when you get exstatic!!! To OP... glad you are a better person for the experience - please keep contributing with opinions. You don't have to be an expert to be listened to here. TB * PS Never 'diss' LFC or Stevie G - I can turn nasty
  13. You are so correct... Our resident troll though does not realise that whilst IR's are high so is the demand for wage Inflation. So instead of a meagre 2% rise on £25K (£500 p.a.) you can demand a rise that is more in line with real inflation of say 6% (£1500 p.a.). So in the trolls example You would be paying the same amount each month but you will be £1,000 a year better off! Inflation ERODES DEBT!!! It is better to have a small amount at HIGH INTEREST than a LARGE AMOUNT at low interest because whilst IRs are low they are likely to go UP when they are high they are likely to go DOWN!!! You are so inept that this is the first and last time I will respond to firsttimebuyers posts. Ignore list comes to mind TB
  14. This is a great sign... To be honest - I bet this Estate Agent gets LOTS of sales because of this. And I bet he get's near the asking price becuase he sounds like he is in the business to sell properties at a realistic price in the conditions. Be honest though, a stagnant market is the worst scenario for any Estate Agent TB
  15. it has now risen 0.75% in six months - its not the amount its more the TREND!! IR's are the reason for this BUBBLE. Whilst it is cheap to borrow LARGE sums of money then people will have confidence in the market. Prices will HAVE to drop to accomodate the new IR's. Also there will be no sane reason to do BTL now - you can now get 5.5% interest on your savings with ICICI and ICESAVE and this is guaranteed with NO VOIDS/NO MAINTENANCE/NO OUTGOINGS WHATSOEVER. Looks like we are turning into a saving society again. Expect a lot of advertisements in 2007 for savings accounts. Sentiment has changed and this is just the start imho. TB
  16. The main gripe was that it started at 50K and your example ALSO starts at 50K - WEAK ARUGEMENT The Latest data only shows that last year there was ANOTHER BOOM so more reason to speculate that we are in a bubble. Cant honestly see what the arguement is - the graph is not misrepresentative - its maybe a little out of date and that is all. TB
  17. I can only give my personal point of view so here goes: The only reason that prices are so high is because people are prepared to pay WHATEVER it takes to get a home. This is mainly based on the fact that HP's ONLY RISE. If everyone siad NO IM NOT BUYING AT THAT PRICE they would drop. As Eric Pebble says in his post - the lenders are controlling the price. This Supply demand and immigration things is all me @ss. These people that have decided to mortgage themselves to the hilt and are not going to struggle with just a 1% increase in interest rates are the ones that have added fuel to the fire WITHOUT THINKING. Now if these are the people that LOSE their homes then WHY should I feel sorry for them. IT WAS THEIR STUPIDITY!!!! My biggest GLEE (as you put it) would be the banks and especially this GOVERNMENT getting the kick in the [email protected] that they deserve! Homes are for living - not for profit. If they all dropped 50% tomorrow the only losers are the banks, estate agents and the government. The majority of people will be better off. TB
  18. This has hit the nail on the head!!! There are so many FLATS - phuck APARTMENTS!!! FLATS were actually bigger!! It beggars belief when you see the infrastucture of these as they are getting built. There is one onthe dock road - opposite the NEW ARENA that is getting built. When I seen the skeleton of this monstrosity, I then seen that there were 16 flats in this 'Pathetic little space'. No-one in their right mind would buy one of these other than for speculative purposes. When 2008 is over in Liverpool the FLATS/APARTMENTS will crash BIG TIME!!! Looking at the BBC (spit) house price spinner you can see that its these flats that are holding up the market here. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ces/html/by.stm Liverpool Average Cost: £126,261 Detached: £257,002 Semi-detached: £151,295 Terraced: £97,676 Flat: £150,897 Change in last quarter: 3.6% Change in last year: 9.5% Sales: 1992 How crazy is that!!! Buy a flat for £150k and have NO GARDEN, NO FREE PARKING, A MAINTENANCE CHARGE, TERRIBLE ROAD CONGESTION, NO ROOM FOR A FAMILY, NO LOFT FOR STORAGE. Or for the same price a FAMILY HOME SEMI - with gardens front and rear for your children to play in safely, A drive for your car leading up to a garage. A big loft that can be converted if needs be, a possibility of extending or building a patio, no maintenance charge or parking fees. IT'S A NO BRAINER!!! Also if they are without children then let's presume they are <35 they would have to be on at least £40K between them. They will be mortgaged to the hilt to live inthe city centre where they have no money left to socialise! MADNESS!!! When these tumble - WHICH THEY WILL, I expect sanity to come back into the market. I hope to buy in 2010 now - by then, I hope to have saved enough cash to more or less buy with a 50% LTV. If it all goes tits-up then I will just rent a nice semi somewhere. I would sooner live on the street than rent an apartment!! TB
  19. crazychick!!!! We are in a rather unfortunate position of having shed-loads of investment in the city. This is leading to a lot of SPECULATION that at midnight at the end of next year - EVERYTHING WILL BE WORTH 4x what you paid for it!!! Come 2010 - expect Liverpool to be in the worst recession in living memory. WE - THE PEOPLE WHO LIVE THERE - CANNOT SUPPORT THESE PRICES. By 2010, Liverpool will be awash with city-living apartments that will stand empty. All the speculators will have fecked-off and we will be caught in a stand off between the people who have held on who say - I CANT DROP IT - ITS MY PENSION!!! and people who can only borrow respectable multiples and cannot get the money to satisfy their greed. I cant wait for 2008 to be over its going to be the downfall of this city come 2010 - believe me. Every city that has had city of culture has had a major downturn when all the hype has worn off. PS What pstcode in Liverpool??? I'm L17 TB
  20. Listen, Life is full of gambles. When gambles pay-off we generally hear about them. When they go tits-up they tend to get swept under the carpet. GAMBLING IS RISKY. But as people have pointed out - NOT SELLING UP is also a GAMBLE. Your £320K house may only achieve £240k in 12 months. On the other hand it could make MORE than £320K but the house you are buying is ALSO MORE EXPNSIVE. Either way CRASH OR BOOM - The Banks and the government are in a WIN-WIN situation. The ideal scenario for everyone is to buy a house or move up the ladder with as little debt as possible so it is manageable. We also have to factor is WHAT PEOPLE WANT FROM LIFE? I am 38 and getting close to that (40 + 25 year mortgage = 65 retirement) pinnicle of life. Then I see this shithouse government we have and think - Hold on my house is going to make more money over 25 years and then these [email protected] with take Inheritance Tax from my children. This is the same government that will probably give me £25 a week pension coz Gordon Brown STOLE the rest of my fund. My view now??? Why own a house to make these shits' some money??? Given a choice - I would have £320k in the bank - get your rent paid via interest and have all your salary to enjoy life. The when I was feeling bold - would buy a few properties at ROCK BOTTOM price near the trough and then make my money. ENJOY LIFE - AND SLEEP AT NIGHT KNOWING THAT YOU ARE COMFORTABLE FINANCIALLY. LIFE IS FOR LIVING - NOT FOR OWNING A FEW BRICKS AND MORTAR TB * Housing is destroying the social stature of this country imho. It's just not worth it!
  21. Am I the only one who has a suspicious mind around here? Flesh Gordon is capping wages so we have less in our pockets. So then the 70%+ of the populous who are home owners renters will MEW for their holidays and Christmas presents. He is a thief and a manipulative [email protected] - If I ever met him I would kick him in the knackers so hard his ****** would be ear-rings!!! TB
  22. NAEA: Are you a lying, heartless, bullshitting scum bag? Nicola: Yes I am!! NAEA: Welcome aboard - now go and f*ck some people over! TB
  23. What you say is true!!! You are however missing the point. Although sentiment is quite BULLISH at the moment, or certainly the propaganda machine anyway, the reporting on BBC should be BALANCED. The only NON-VI that is on there is capital economics. 4-1 ratio. They chose Capital Economics because, admittedly, they have a bad track record - they are a BULL'S DREAM!!! They even allow someone to predict for 2008 when it quite clearly states 'Where are house prices heading in 2007?' I agree with OP - this is nothing more than an advert or propaganda. Cant wait for Where are Interest Rates heading in 2007? Where are Repossessions heading in 2007? Where are IVA's heading in 2007? Where is Unemployment heading in 2007? Where are debt suicides heading in 2007? Where is inflation heading in 2007? Oh yeah.... fat f*cking chance of any of them!!! TB
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.