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Everything posted by teddyboy

  1. And in-between his house has turned into a flat!!! The housing market is MAGIC!!!
  2. CRASH2005 your arguement is good but it has just 1 tincy wincy flaw. THE MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION ARE f00KING STUPID!!!! I want IR's 9% so all these knobs, who have propped up the market, get a fecking reality check!
  3. Ever thought those people queuing could be builders/EA employees? Call me a cynic but some of the b0ll0x that is getting reported lately shows what lies and deception VI's will go to to convince people everything is 'OK'. It's been a difficult few weeks, but at least Nationwide have said they expect falls untill mid-next year and then stagnation. (see thread about 5 days ago) TB
  4. Cant wait for the Brown Blair Corporation to report this!!! Bet its HOUSING MARKET HOT! BUY NOW BEFORE SS TITANIC LEAVES! TBH tho - when this corporation reports such shyte as this - is it any wonder that sellers say our offers are SILLY? I think we are at a turning point here. Nationwide admitting that next year will be modest drops and then stagnation. Rightmove on asking prices pushing up the ante! Anyone with a marketing strategy of "It's not selling so we will have to up the price" has got to be a complete bell-end! I know who will wn. The buyers!!! TB
  5. Im seeing houses in the same street from £125K to £170K and the latest selling ones are only achieving 120-130K anyway. The EA's have got their heads up their ass and are confused!!!! Its gone be a cold hard winter!!!! They said that retail sales were down this year becuase of a warm summer. Anyone want a wager with me that htis will be the headline in SPRING? "Retail sales rocked by coldest winter in years - We expect an upturn this summer" Alls im saying is PPPsssssssssttttttttt.......
  6. WTF is going on this week. Have fumes come over from Amsterdam or something. I CANNOT BELIEVE HOW SPINELESS SOME PEOPLE ARE THIS WEEK!!! How long have we gone on about the SPIN that goes on? How long have we tried to enlighten people that there are 2 sides to every story? How many times have we despaired at the blatent lies/spin that seems to get press every day? And now - come to HPC - The New Singing Pig!!! I am soo disappointed!!! What has happened this week that has changed it all? LR figures NOT YoY negative - so what look at this way it was 28% Yoy last year - this year is 3.6% this is held up on average prices buy much higher priced properties than the poeple of here are intending to buy. Inflation back on track in 2 years? Its only projected and may not happen. but why is everyone dispondent? NO MATER WHAT FACTORS ARE OUT THERE - ASK YOURSELF THIS. The sales are down 15% in the so called good times - summer months. Winter/spring is dire so what are those figures gonna show in late summer next year? so alls I can ask is this:- CAN THE HOUSING MARKET SURVIVE WITHOUT FTB'S/BTL's? I think not! Do not buy and wait till at least Summer 2006 and then if you want to give in - then fine - its your perogative. But dont come on this site and fuel the trolls and Bulls with DISPONDENT remarks. RFD - think your a top bloke, very funny and very talented - but I cannot believe you have collapsed like a house of cards so easily. I feel dispondent some days, despair the next, but I am most definately an optimist. Like others on here - YES I AGREE - its not happening fast enough for me but ask me will I be able to afford a house? The answer is yes! 38% rise last year in LIverpool on an average of £22K wages. Cannot go without correction. CHIN UP - BUT DONT TURN THE SITE INTO THE SAMARITANS FFS! TB
  7. My christmas bonus for the last 10 years has been. "You can come back in January - You are not being laid-off" Why the f___ should they get a bonus anyway? Its called WORK for a reason. We all do it! Can you imagine every worker got a massive BONUS for doing what they are paid to do anyway?? LUDICROUS! TB
  8. I am somewhat bemused that people are so concerned about our welfare on this site. Remarks like "can you really wait another 12 months?" "You should buy now, the CPI is (chancellor adjusted) to 2.5% <cough> so prices are gonna rise" "You should borrow as much as you can afford - its so easy nowadays with super low IR's" ARE THESE PEOPLE REALLY TRYING TO HELP US? This says one thing to me - SALESMAN! The other factor that has come to light in the past 24-48 hours is the number of people giving up! What has changed in your life. Have you suddenly got 50K and said sod it - im buying? No, the chances are you are PRICED OUT! Whether you believe all the VI BS we have seen the last few days, or not. Your circumstance is no different. Why are we doom-mongerers? Do not think that high HPI is causing SEVERE DOOM AND GLOOM to MILLIONS of people who want a house to reside in and not to FLIP? STICK TO YOUR GUNS PEOPLE! LET THEM THROW MUD! We aint up to our eyes in DEBT! I think a lot of this 'trolling', 'VI [email protected] is prominent because if it happens even HALF of what we think will happen, then these people will be up SHITS CREEK* *PS this is not a property location that is ideal for a profession couple. Its a nice way of saying your f*cked! TB
  9. Im starting to think BBC stands for Blowing Blairs C___!
  10. I think lending criteria is the key tbh. And honest reporting. TB
  11. With all these people working in ASDA for £5 an hour that means that all the houses are going to be sold in the lower end of the market. Quick BUY NOW before the BIG BUCKS ASDA BRIGADE buy up all the stock. BIG DEAL - Tell me a major employer that PAYS big bucks and I would feel that this is a positive sign of revival. Asda jobs are minimum wage jobs, why has this got a 'feel-good' factor? More people come off the 'unemployed' statistics and are given a job where they are on the LOWEST possible wages. DISGRACEFUL TB
  12. CORRECT! CORRECT! I think you have not read the title of the thread. I have made it clear that people are paying more money, by going further into debt, to buy the same properties. IE the properties are rising in selling price. The point I am making is that when its reported that prices are going up the general opinion is that NOTHING IS COMING DOWN. So from the charts you can see that we are still paying for the silly peroid of 2003/2004. and prices ARE dropping but still show a high AVERAGE. I am illustrating that declining house prices will show a rise YoY for some time, when in reality they are coming down. Until they drop to say 2002 price levels - they will always show a rise, as the 45% or something rise we had in 2003 is still hurting. And not showing a TRUE reflection of todays market conditions. TB * Sorry forgot to add. The reason I posted this was to show FTB's that the verage property has risen because of increase in sales of the >150K properties. It is my belief that the FTB and BTL market has hit rock bottom and the prices in this area seems to be dropping. So dont think that you should offer a FULL ASKING PRICE. the figures are skewed.
  13. Have to hold onto something - not had much success in recent years and we AINT gonna win the league soon. Cant agree more. My mate was renting in Georges dock - one opposite Toys R Us. Ricky Tomlinson used to live there, was quite exclusive. Got it for £600 a month - normally £720! These are top notch apartments - massive!!! (Old Dock Warehouses to anyone not familiar). These used to be fully rented. Now with the new Radisson, which still has apartments available after 18 months completion, the rent market seem to be coming down. Think LIVERPOOL PLC from a property point of view will be a bad investment come 2008? Wirral 40% down YoY. Sort of backs up my arguement that the EA's are NOT reacting to market conditions. Whats the saying? "If your house aint selling......... your asking too much?" TB
  14. I agree! The problem nowadays is the bottom rung of the ladder has been taken away. I would say the bottom 2 tbh. I know from my circumstance that I could buy a basic terrace in a crap part of Liverpool for say 80K but in 5 years time I would not be able to sell it and would be lucky to get my money back. We have the Capital of Culture or as I call it The Capital of Vultures. We have lots of 'outsiders' buying property and this WILL stop after 2008. They are paying silly money for areas which we "the locals" know are drug dens and bad areas. We would NOT pay the prices for the areas that the outsiders are paying. I have to go the next step up - directly to the semi, with garden. Why? Because it will be cheaper in the long run. The figures that I am showing are pointing towards FTB's - I find it difficult to believe that many 2nd time buyers can get an upgrade house for less than 150K - so the figure of 47% now would show that at least imho 30% of these are first time buyers. I am using common sense here on this thread. I am just reading between the lines of the figures and I strongly believe that things are looking GOOD for a massive correction in the FTB market. TB
  15. where about you looking Lurker - hope its not MORETON/ Had Sykes Waterhouse on the phone to me 3-4 time a week in the summer. Local people tell me that MORETON is certainly not MEOLS! I work in Bromborough and was looking in the Bromborough/Bebington area. Seen some nice houses but the prices were silly. Prices in Liverpool are dropping to SILLY prices from F*CKIN RIDICULOUS prices, but I dont see that on the Wirral. Clive Watkin and Brennans dont seem to be reducing prices at all? Be interesting to know what sort of offers you have been putting in and the reactions to it? TB
  16. Just an update!!!! looked back at the data from 1999 onwards. I think we have reached an interesting point! Comments please TB
  17. I think the problem here is that the majority of people who are on this forum or just joining have joined because they were about to/looking at buying a house NOW! So when it does not move fast enough we give up hope. I have explained the LR figures in another post http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=18995 But briefly, we hear, and I quote "House Prices have rose even though sales have dropped". Lets just leave it there and like me, you think F%^&£$ TWA^&% BAS%&^SDDD! (right?) Unfortunately, the majority of the populus think the same. But it is just manipulation of figures (read other thread for explanation). I have concluded that the FTB market is around the £150K mark, although £200K may be more appropriate in some parts of the country. This market is COLLAPSING NOW! This is the area that will need the correction. This is moving FASTER in the last 2-3 months than it ever has. I believe that come summer next year this area will be in turmoil. Yes 250K+ houses are selling but probably after a massive discount of 10-40%. Unfortunately, this price will still be higher than say 'last sold' in 2003. Therefore, in theory, it has gone UP in price even though the price paid to asking price is say 30% DOWN. The statistics show that the average property will only drop if the sub 150K properties are selling and the 200K (asking price) properties drop into the <150K catergory. THIS WILL HAPPEN - I believe as soon as SUMMER next year. So those in the FTB bracket should feel confident that things ARE MOVING at a good rate imho. The rest of the market will follow, but this bottom end is crucial to the health of the housing market. TB Chin up - its looking good. We just need the media to be a little more unbias with their reporting
  18. Added new post with excel file and other data. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=18995 You can see the trend - Just concentrate on your area of potential purchase and try and work out whether the your target purchase price has actually gone up at all. You may find they are coming down in real terms. I also agree that £140K for semi is about the REAL WORLD price for my area of Liverpool. Good luck TB
  19. I have spent a LONG time today going over the figures for the Land Registry to try and figure out why prices have rose? We all know that everything is selling for less and yet there is a 3% rise in the average house. WHY? Well to be honest its a good use of figures. The KEY WORD here is AVERAGE. I have looked at the number of sales and then the price ranges. For something that is 60-70K I have said that each sale is £65,000. I have gone for the middle figure. This is purely for percentages only. The reason why the average prices have rose is HIGH ACTIVITY in the 150K plus markets. Please look through all the data and comment on anything that may be wrong. What I can see that is quite clear is this: PERCENTAGE OF SALES 2003 2004 2005 0-£150,000 58.94 47.50 45.86 150,000-500,000 39.15 49.96 51.14 500,000-1million 1.61 2.24 2.56 1million + 0.30 0.30 0.44 The sales of properties SUB 150 have dwindled to a low of only 45.86% of sales. Does anyone know what a "HEALTHY" percentage of sales are FTB's? Even though sales have dropped 15.41%, everything over £150K has risen as a percentage of sales. Everything Below £150K has declined as a percentage of sales. With this imbalance the scales will NEVER tip to a drop in prices unless the >£150K move across to the <150K columns. Even with 25% across the board taken off the market, unless you get the percentage of sales <150K higher than the >150K. Then mathematically it is impossible to drop! You then have to counter the £1million+ properties as well. This method is deceiving. Its like going to a DAEWOO garage to buy a MATIZ, which sells for about £8K and the salesman saying, well there have been a lot of LEXUS and BMW's selling so this car is now worth £14,000. As this is the AVERAGE price of a motor car. Look at these figures and see that the FTB market is getting MORE and MORE UNAFFORDABLE. I am officially calling the CRASH. It is about to POP. The scales of balance cannot be corrected. Please comment on any anomilies. Whether you agree with me or any other data that you find interesting. TB ZIP file includes Excel and JPG
  20. Elizabeth, Try to imagine it as a set of scales. A house <150,000 is left and >150,000 right. HOUSE PRICE LAST YEAR THIS YEAR £140K £155K £150K £165K £170K £180K £200K £170K So what has happened is all the prices of last years stock have moved over to the right coz they are now >150K. So look at the scalles and you will see that there is nothing counter-balancing the average. The 200K house has dropped 30K but not enough to tip the scales the other way. SO whilst house prices will drop SUBSTANCIALLY for the foreseeale future it needs a LOT of the >150K property to go into the <150K category. In the same way that all the reductions in the <150K category do not affect the balance of the scale. As they are not moving sides (from right to left). They do in theory, but not a lot. MAKE SENSE? The point being - the average price will remain 'positive for some time. The reality is, if they done an average on sub £250K properties you will find that it will be negative in 'real terms'. I will do a comparison a little later tonight. TB
  21. Was I not saying this a few days ago? http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ndpost&p=231203 The Teddy aint dumb - he's lifted it off this post!!
  22. I can see where you would think that a rate cut would be essential to PROP up the market again. The problem lies in the amount of DEBT we have in this country - I dont think we can afford to PROMOTE more debt. We need real cash to start paying for stuff. Read somewhere - possilby the blog - that a large percentage of people this Christmas DO NOT intend on using credit and will pay for stuff based on what they physically have to spend. I think a lot of the population are starting to think this way. For these builders to get back into profits, they need to start LOWERING the prices so the amount of DEBT borrowed is achievable to a lot more people. Common sense says we need to move back up to the recommended 8% interest rate. I do not want this TBH but its better to have 80K worth of debt at HIGH IR's than £150K at LOW IR's. At least with High IR's inflation will increase affordability. TB
  23. Been doing this for 2 years. And will be having another today, tommorrow, next week.....
  24. What a crock of shit! For a start, FTB properties are NOT rising by 33k - The average property is - mainly the 200K+ stock. The fact they mention that 80% think its overpriced and a further 15% saying they are waiting for prices to fall point to one thing. THE BUYERS IN THE MARKET HAVE STOPPED BEING TAKEN FOR A RIDE. The populus has WOKEN UP and its a buyers market for a LONG, LONG TIME. Expect sub 200K properties to fall 20-30% over the next few years. 10% in the next 6 months! FIRST RULE: Dont believe anything from a VI - although I do find this article quite bearish TB
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