DEMO

On 9th Dec 2005 Nationwide released a report predicting a price rise of 0 - 3% for 2006. On the 8th August 06 Nationwide released a revised forecast report predicting a price rise of 5% for 2006. In October 06 Nationwide reported an 8% increase in house prices. Assuming that the 2007 prediction report is due out in the next few weeks what do you think the Nationwide prediction for next year will be?

How about you all just take this Christmas off and then make a new years resolution not to post on this site more than once a month. All this jumping around after every housing statistic is released can not be good for your mental well-being.

Congratulations, you have been published. http://comment.independent.co.uk/letters/article334434.ece Does this improve your opinion of the Indy or is it still to be dismissed as an outlet for VI propaganda?

Another interesting article from Moneyweek. Can not say that I am regular reader of this paper so not sure if this is their typical output: http://www.moneyweek.com/file/5212/property-0512.html Many of you will probably not enjoy this bit: "Or maybe they are indeed no longer deterred by the hopelessly wrong prophets of doom."

I would probably have got bored with this site a long time ago if I didn't think I could keep coming back and reading comments like that. Does this website give out awards for quote of the year? In the interests of keeping things objective would anyone like to try and justify that comment?

That's a fair point and we will have to wait and see what happens if prices do start falling. Possibly the reason that the VI data attracts so many adverse comments is that a few people here have jumped the gun a bit and think that house prices have already started falling. That probably makes it quite frustrating when your opinions are contradicted by the data.

I have a small problem with the view that the vested interest figures can not be trusted. If you look at the data provided from the Nationwide they will tell you that house prices have very nearly doubled from Q3 of 2000 to Q3 of 2005. (An increase of approx 96%) I don't think anybody on this site would disagree with this finding, if it were not the case then house prices would still be at the levels of long term affordabilty and this site would have no need to exist. Therefore why is so much time spent discrediting the VI data?

Three things to respond to here I think: Firstly, that's the first time I've ever been called a VI. Sounds quite exciting. Wish I did own a bank but unfotunately not. More seriously though I do not pretend to understand the methodology of the Nationwide predictions. I was merely presenting evidence as to the accuracy of their previous predictions as I think that this has an impact on the credibility of their current prediction. The evidence I found suggests to me that their predictions are generally pessimistic. This conclusion was amplified by a subsequent poster who presented data for some earlier periods. Secondly, even before the house price boom your survey would have produced the same results. I don't remember ever hearing anybody telling me that house prices are too cheap. Thirdly, what are you doing posting to this forum at 2 o'clock on a Sunday morning. Does this site have a thread for insomniacs? Doh! Got my AMs and PMs all wrong. Must read more carefully in future! Sorry.

A little bit of history might help here. This time last year Nationwide prodicted that prices would increase by 2% in 2005 http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/2005Forecast.pdf As at November 05 annual growth was 2.4% http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/MPR0511.pdf For 2004 the prediction was a 9% increase. http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/2004Forecast.pdf Annual house price inflation for 2004 was 12.7% http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/CMQPRQ404.pdf To me it looks like Nationwide have a recent history of being slightly pessimistic in their forecasting.

I see comments like this fairly frequently on this website and it is a statement which generally passes without comment. Can anyone explain which policies are being referred to here?

Hysterical, not usually. Obsessed, almost certainly. Open to alternative viewpoints, rarely. Mistaken, who knows?

I disagree, think it was a fair point myself.

You know what is truly stunning about this comment? That is how can an anonymous quote reported by someone with no particular professional credibility generate so much feedback? My apologies if the poster of this comment is actually Mervyn King.

There is no crash. Don't take my word for it, try taking a look at the home page of this very website. Every survey detailed (with the exception of Hometrack) is showing a year on year increase of between 2.5% to 4%. I accept that this is barely outpacing general inflation but it can not be called a crash.