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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by blackgoose

  1. I would probably buy government bonds before the crash as the governments can just print money to pay off their debts and QE will continue. I would consider government bonds safer than cash in the bank. Then I would start planning what to buy at the low.

  2. Overview

    Performance in Q3 2014 was negatively impacted by a sharp and recent slowing of volumes in London property sales markets following an exceptionally strong nine month period to 30 June 2014 in which volumes reached their highest levels since 2007.

    · Q3 Group turnover was £39.9m (2013: £41.1m). Group turnover for the nine months to 30 September 2014 was £112.7m (2013: £103.7m).

    · Q3 property sales commissions were £16.4m (2013: £17.8m), down 7.8%, as a reduction in sales volumes more than offset price increases. Property sales commissions for the nine months to 30 September 2014 were £54.1m (2013: £46.3m), up 16.9%.

    · Q3 lettings revenue of £21.9m was flat (2013: £21.9m). Lettings revenue for the nine months to 30 September 2014 was £53.7m (2013: £53.7m).

    · Q3 mortgage revenue of £1.6m grew by 13.8% (2013: £1.4m). Mortgage revenue for the nine months to 30 September 2014 was £4.6m (2013: £3.4m)

    · Q3 Adjusted EBITDA1 was £14.2m (2013: £18.0m). Adjusted EBITDA for the nine months to 30 September 2014 was up 4.9% to £39.2m (2013: £37.3m).

    · Q3 Adjusted EBITDA margin2 was 35.6% compared to 43.7% during the same period last year which had also been the highest quarterly margin ever achieved by the company. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 34.8% for the nine months to 30 September 2014 (2013: 36.0%).

    · The Group remains debt free and generated £13.9m of adjusted operating cash3 during Q3 representing an operating cash conversion rate4 of 98%.


    Although the longer term outlook for London property markets remains positive, the market is expected to continue to be constrained for some time due to political and economic uncertainty within the UK and Europe, tighter mortgage lending markets and mismatches between the price expectations of buyers and sellers. These external headwinds have exacerbated the rate of slowdown in sales transactions we noted at the time of our H1 results. Market volumes in Q3 have been more in line with the first half of 2013 and we now believe that market volumes in H2 2014 overall will be significantly below levels during the same period last year. Consequently, we expect full year 2014 adjusted EBITDA to be below the prior year figure of £49.6m.

    Nic Budden, CEO commented:

    "Despite the impact that market uncertainty is having on transaction volumes, we are continuing with our clear strategy, centralised business model and steady roll out programme which is delivering higher market share. Our seven new branches opened this year bring our network to fifty one, with all our sites secured for 2015. Foxtons remains highly profitable, cash generative and debt free, and therefore well positioned to deliver further cash returns to shareholders, building on the £28.1m of ordinary and special dividends paid since our IPO."

  3. The Americans and the Dutch company were real traders, though the Americans in Chicago are a relic of a previous floor trading era and the Dutch high frequency trading is the more professional operation.

    That London "training school" is just a sham to take money from people for their training courses. If Piers could make money from trading himself, he would be doing it, not teaching others his methods. The whole thing about buying depending if the figure is high or low is bull too. The Dutch company will be buying/ selling after 0.01 miliseconds after the figure, so why on earth they think they can manually buy/ sell there I don't know.

  4. I think the Duke of Westminster is hiding much of his wealth too. In 1989, the rich list said he was worth 3.2 billion pounds, now they say 8.5 billion pounds, a multiple of 2.6. However prime london properties have gone up by about 6 or 7 times, meaning he should be worth about 20 billion pounds, not counting the rent he would have received.

  5. While the scale of the prices rises have been insane, it's not surprising that real London prices have risen by far more than inflation. The increase in demand (through international immigration and national, safest/most secure investment), shortage of supply, and the fact that London is arguably THE world city, and - for all its issues - a far far better place to live than it was in the 1990s. Hence if they fall, they won't fall back to where they *should* be.

    You are like most British people who think London is the best and biggest city in the world and can't imagine any where else. London is an important city, but so are Paris, Rome, Madrid, New York, Hong Kong, Beijing, Sydney, Tokyo, LA, San Francisco, Rio and Berlin. Except for Tokyo and Beijing, they all have lots of immigrants and rich foreigners buying property there. Yes London, is equal to these, but it is not the only large city in the world.

  6. "The company, known for its racing green-coloured Minis and confident sales agents, said the offer is expected to raise gross proceeds of £390m."

    That would be around £7m an office...that seems a tad over-valued to me.

    It is actually worse than that. It has a market cap of ~730 million pounds(https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=FOXT.L), with 49 offices, that makes it almost 15 million per office!

    (The 390million was just the proceeds from the ipo)

  7. Im surprised Oxfam didnt just take the richest 5 people from the Times rich list. That one includes all of the non dom billionaires with properties in London, so they are a lot richer than the 5 presented in Oxfam's list. The Duke of Westminster is only 8th richest in the Times list.

    If they had done that, they might have been able to talk about the richest 5 being worth the same as eg. the poorest 30%.

  8. Imagine we had a small world with:

    1 banker

    1 solicitor

    1 farmer

    1 shop keeper

    1 mechanic

    1 builder

    1 lorry driver

    1 teacher

    If you remove the banker and the solicitor for that society the other 6 can still function.

    If you remove the other 6 and keep the banker and solicitor...the bankers and the solicitors have nothing, they cannot survive, they live off society and only have nothing to contribute. As such their incomes should be way below that of the rest of society.


    But if you removed the banker, there would be no one to skim 1% off everyone's savings....

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