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House Price Crash Forum


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About MEtallic

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  1. While Cypriot banks ration cash, ABN Amro is rationing physical gold http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-24/another-gold-shortage-abn-halt-physical-gold-delivery
  2. Not sure why anyone is listening to this idiot. He was asleep at the wheel when the car came off the road and now pretends to know what Sterling ought to be worth?? By what stretch of the imagination can he say "There is momentum behind the recovery that's coming and I think that during the course of 2013 we will see the recovery come into sight," For sure this is correct if you're a bankster, but for the rest if us, all we see are declining standards of living and the likelyhood that what our parents took for granted (free healthcare, pensions etc) will be no more than a pipedream by 2040. If you can strip out the negatives now (oil/construction) why not strip them out of the data when they were more positive? What utter nonsense! :angry: North sea oil will never recover, this is a permanent decline and our idiot of a chancellor thinks that a small densely-populated island like the UK can compare to a vast sparsely-populated continent like North America and put his hopes on shale gas, which, despite the US's vast purported reserves, is driving developers to bankruptcy and showing steep declines from producing wells (see theoildrum.com for plenty of analysis) Anyone with an ounce of sense will know that there is no recovery in sight and unless you make provision for your later years now, you will be living in a cardboard box on the street
  3. Richard Duncan's 'The New Depression- Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy' is a great read. It follows on from his 'Dollar Collapse' which for me helped explain why asset prices, e.g house prices, appeared to be for ever rising prior to 2007. He makes a key point- without massive injections of government spending and actions to bail out the banks in 2008, we would now be in the middle of another Depression even greater than the 1930-and look how well that ended! I, like most others on the forum, understand that the world financial system is a mess and equally, dislike the idea of supporting gambling dens banks, but it appears that unless governments injects large amounts of newly printed cash, prior to developing a system that isn't so broken, we will inevitably face an economic collapse of Biblical proportions. I may well get negative responses to this, but please read both his books first before commenting.
  4. I ought to add the Energy Return on Investment 'EROI' of new fuel sources is abysmal. An interesting paper on the minimum EROI we can have have as a modern society is discussed in 'What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have?' by Charles A. S. Hall, Stephen Balogh and David J. R. Murphy energies-02-00025.pdf energies-02-00025.pdf
  5. What often gets missed is that we now consume ~ 5 million barrels/day (~6%) more crude oil than we produce, the balance being met from biofuels, coal-to-liquids and other undefined sources, which tend to be more expensive and hard to get. The data is available from BP Statistical Review of World Energy. UK production of oil & gas has also peaked. Those who think that taking out Iran's 'minor' supply of 5% of world oil production will have no effect on global prices are probably mistake.
  6. Look at the sale historyof one of these flats, No, 75. It' been bought & sold countless times!
  7. For an excellent and easy to read book on the fall or Rome and othr civilisaitons, have a read thgrough 'The Collapse of Complex Societies' by Tainter
  8. Bloody stupid idea. If printing money was the answer, why isn't it done regularly? Surely if a free £10k is good idea, a free £100k must be 10x better! It really makes me wonder what all these people get paid for......
  9. http://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-great-british-property-scandal/articles/how-to-spot-an-empty/ Kicking off the season will be The Great British Property Scandal which is on Channel 4 on Monday 5th & Tuesday 6th December 2011. Architect and presenter George Clarke will front the series which will highlight the nearly two million British families who don’t have adequate housing, and the million-odd homes lying empty across the UK. Architect Clarke will set out to raise awareness of the issue and offer practical solutions for those affected. Clarke argues that “the Government’s plan to build new homes is not necessarily the right approach,” and suggests ‘more cost effective and efficient ways to utilize the properties that are currently lying empty.” Clarke will also lobby central government and local councils to commit to re-using empty homes across the whole of the UK.
  10. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldmans-sigma-x-spot-once-again-predicts-imminent-uk-contagion Not sure how this works, but trading patterns in Italian shares prior to their bonds spiking are being seen in trading patterns for UK shares. Coupled with the extra £111B we need to borrow, we may be days or weeks away from seeing our borrowing costs spiral out of control. If you believe in reversion to the mean, extra low interest rates we've had for such a long time may mean extra high ones soon?
  11. I consider all these 'occupy city XXX' events a total failure. A few hundred turn up from a population of several million in each country, what does that say? It says that most of us actually have it quite good, despite cooked inflation figures, government corruption and the greed of the financial sector. If we truly are in a state of abject poverty or have no hope for the future, we'd feel we have nothing to lose and would join in these protests. As it is, most of us are working and haven't got the time, or can't afford a few days or weeks in jail. Anyone who remember the anti war protests before 2003 will remember that millions who made the effort to travel to London to protest were completely ignored. Why should a few hundred make a difference? They won't, unless they emulate the recent riots and torch the place. Far better, if you think the powers that be are ignoring us, is to go down to the bank and take your cash out and either put it under the floor boards, convert it into gold or at the very least, move it into a building society account. That will have a far greater impact, but I doubt it is something that enough will do to make a difference. A recent action along these lines failed miserably.
  12. With the 'average' gas bill often cited as over 1000 pounds, I wonder if this is realistic? Mine (2 bed terrace) comes in at about 200 per year....what's yours?
  13. As always, you need to factor in London As prices in London are far higher than anywhere else, even small increases can have an effect on the UK's average. I see 3%+ declines till the end of the year- I just don't see wages that can even support nominal price increases....
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