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Everything posted by ARENAPUA

  1. You can't blame the Tories specifically. Labour would do exactly the same - and actively promoted the house price boom of the 2000's. Remember 110% mortgages? Whose watch was that on. And it was Labour who bailed out the banks in 2008, with no criminal prosecutions, and subsequent creation of moral hazard.
  2. What I'd like to do is for someone to start a new political party with correcting the housing market - ie no government interference, no land banking, limiting access to foreign buyers, limiting the amount people can borrow etc - as their core policy. I do feel there is a huge number of people that are educated and don't want this interference, but they are being ignored. And collectively they would have immense voting power. I have thought about looking into it myself but wouldn't know where to start, and would have no idea what to call the party lol.
  3. I think it's Game Over. The next decade will see a house price boom akin to the noughties. And there's no going back for the government from here. They won't be able to retreat from this 'support' once it's fully embedded. I've held off from buying a house for so long - I'm 50 this year. I've been naive and have thought sooner or later, the market will be allowed to follow it's own path. I've been wrong footed at every turn. I've got a sizeable deposit and was planning on seeing how this year panned out before buying with what I feel would be a reasonable mortgage. Now I feel like the rush is back on again - again, just like in the noughties - and it makes me feel anxious. Everyone will be filling their boots. Bank lending will expand beyond all recognition again. So I need to concede defeat and jump in. Total madness.
  4. Interesting, semi reasonable article and good for her but as always doesn't provide complete transparency.. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jan/27/teacher-saver-audi-tt 1) Doesn't say where in the country she lives 2) Says she has help with the deposit - but not how much. 3) Tells of the size of the mortgage but not the total value of the house. She seems like a nice person, quite down to earth; not one of those smug b*stard stories we occasionally get. But I do wonder where these people come from. If I was in that position, I certainly wouldn't go to a newspaper and offer my story. I like my privacy, and what is the point? Are these people actively sought out by data mining? The obvious motive to this story is to still try and persuade young people that it's possible to buy a house. But any sane, reasonably intelligent person would scoff at the (small) amount she borrowed being totally irrelevant in today's environment - more likely to create a backlash than not me thinks. Looking at the number of reduced properties happening in the market now, and the (slight) change in media sentiment, I feel quite relaxed about the current environment. I live on the estate this property is located on. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63363292.html Young couple, and they were totally taking the p*ss when first put on the market (I think at somewhere in the region of £315 or £320k). It's listed as a house but is essentially a flat above a car port with one allocated space. It's labelled as a house because it is an isolated building with just them in it. No garden...nothing. Stairs go immediately from the front door to the first floor living quarters. I'm bl**dy happy because the flat has dropped significantly in the last month to £310k and now a couple of weeks later to £290k. I still think completely overpriced - but I am loving the evidence of final capitulation.. :-) I predict will be a small steady prolonged downward trend this year. After a year of consistent reductions, buyers will be in a good place to negotiate discounts with sellers who are worried about further falls. I intend to buy towards the back end of this year, with offers 10% under asking price.
  5. So why not present the seasonally adjusted numbers also?
  6. I would expect there to be congruency between the data presented and the narrative. There isn't here..
  7. Don't understand why, when the nominal price has gone down marginally that it's a 0.1% MoM rise...
  8. Apologies if its been mentioned before. It's interesting, I can't find this article now. Click on the link and it takes you to the Telegraph's home page.
  9. Sometimes I feel positive, sometimes negative about the prospect of house price falls, and also (any) government's willingness to do the right thing and give this country the bad medicine it truly needs. Any government is facing a really difficult scenario here. Any policy that leads to significant house price reductions will be immensely unpopular and will be booted out of office before they can say 'Help to Buy'. The homeowning population might well feel sympathy for the youngsters, and even express it quite vociferously; but when it actually comes down to facing the prospect of real price falls, will they go for it? I strongly suspect not and will vote accordingly. There really is a war going on. A far far easier strategy for the government would be to attempt to change the way we think about housing primarily hard laboured acceptance of the status quo including the concept of multiple generations living under the same roof (the policy outlined above suggests the start of this sentiment). We only have ourselves to blame for this.
  10. Best article articulating how home ownership is now down to the 'lottery of life' and not hard work. What's really heartening to be reported though is the stories of resentment that are starting to appear within social circles driven by those who are able to access help and those that aren't. This never would have been reported a couple or even one year ago. Get this article out there - share on Facebook, or whatever other channel that might help the cause to get the message out. The tide really is turning.. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/11/generation-rent-property-borrowing-from-mum-and-dad-guilt
  11. If you are very fortunate enough to buy a house that you like outright in the area that you like. And it's a house you know you will be happy in when you come back, just buy and don't dwell on the price and which way it might or might not go. You'll have a 100% owned asset earning you income. You are lucky. Very simple answer to me.
  12. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-4993874/Property-gap-drives-wealth-inequality-higher-UK.html 'The IPPR said that if similar home ownership trends continue, less than half millennials will buy a home before the age of 45 – compared to over 70 per cent of baby boomers who had done so by that age.' Good mainstream article telling it how it is. Need more of these.
  13. Agreed. No debt wipe off. As is often quoted to me re House Prices, 'it is what it is'...
  14. I think the real action will be Corbyn winning the next general election. Si1 made a good point - reset is not a problem for those with nothing to lose. At the last general election, I think the young finally found their voice. Up to then, I think they felt what was the point, nobody listened to them in favour of the property haves aka old people who were more likely to vote. There has become an increasing realisation of the potential of their voting power and more and more people are becoming very angry. In many ways I think Corbyn would be a disaster. But I'm more than happy to push this reset button and let the chips fall where they may. Otherwise it will simply be more of the same. Maybe this is what is actually needed.
  15. This is the way I see things potentially going. And if it starts to become mainstream and you want to own a house, better jump on board as there is no reversal from there unfortunately.
  16. I know I've been more 'half glass empty' with the potential for drops in the current environment but it really heartens me to see articles like this not just in the mainstream press but mainstream tabloid press no less. Tide and opinion is turning, and there is a gradual, growing realisation of the devastating effects of high house prices. The article was even published in abbreviated version in The Times (which is great in itself), and referred to the Daily Mail article which is how I found it. People are slowly starting to get it - every little helps. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4957030/Wealthy-families-exploit-7billion-Help-Buy-home-scheme.html
  17. I'm actually going to vote Corbyn even though he stands for a lot I disagree with. He and Brexit together might well be the perfect storm, but again I can't wait another 4-5 years.
  18. Hi TheWig I'm 46 and a renter. Live down south with roots up north and zero inherited capital to expect. So I'm used to better value for money from my housing. I desperately want a crash. And I'm constantly berated by my peers who persistently joke 'what?! You're not still waiting for the crash are you?!' Even if I owned I would want it. We are just seeing the tip of the iceberg right now in terms of the consequences to our society from the catastrophe that has developed. But its becoming blindingly obvious that there is a silent war going on between owners and 'want to be' owners like myself. In the current climate a seller can sit and wait unless an external influence forces him or her to do so. That is either going to be loss of income (unlikely on a mass scale) or being unable to service an unmanageable debt (aka interest rate rises). im sorry but I cannot foresee anything that will prompt a swift increase of the needed 3-4% above current base to trigger this. 0.5% here and there yes, but not a sustained significant increase. In that context all I can see is simply a long drawn out stalemate. And I can't afford to wait forever as my mortgage term slowly decreases. Sorry if this offends.
  19. Let's keep things simple. Whilst the number of homes on the market remains at historically low levels; and while interest rates remain at historically low levels, prices will not fall - TRUST ME I WANT THEM TO. We need distressed sellers. That ain't gonna happen any time soon without an external shock to the system. Homeowners will just sit on their 'nest eggs' and wait things out until somebody is stupid/desperate enough to pay the price they want. The stalemate can be seen by the level of housing stock. Nobody is interested in selling. People aren't desperate to sell and unless they have to, won't drop their price. Prices won't continue to march upwards, but we won't see any significant falls for the foreseeable future, maybe years.. But maybe, just maybe...Brexit will be the outlier...keeping my fingers crossed.
  20. Good straight talking article. http://moneyweek.com/housing-crisis-politicians-stupid-ideas/ But suggests the only real way to bring house prices down is for interest rates to increase to 7% (off the cuff remark I know). I've been waiting for 14 years for house prices to come down. I felt relieved and justified when the 2008 crash came and we suffered the drop and was looking forward to the long predicted and expected 'dead cat bounce' before Help to Buy came along and (most importantly psychologically) put the sheeple back into buying frenzy mode. Thing is, I'm in my mid forties now. If there is going to be a correction, it's going to extremely gradual and very prolonged over many many years I feel. I can't see any outlier that is going to cause a 'crash' and at best interest rates are going to rise at only 0.25% per quarter. I can't see anything that will cause a velocity greater than that. I have been fortunate to amass savings while waiting this frickin long crash which will mean I don't have to over stretch myself. Although I am extremely angry and resentful at the ridiculous prices we currently see, I can't really afford to continue to wait much longer for that long desired 'drop'. To that end I will buy a house over the 18 months regardless trying to leverage any small actualised drop into my negotiating position with vendors. i just don't think there is going to be a swift antidote to this, especially when I still hear the (other) old adage that this is all about low house building volumes and wants that's fixed things will start to normalise...
  21. And another one. Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere but you are right the Express has turned overwhelmingly bearish.. What I find hilarious is the 'head in hands' photo accompanying the article....w....t....f http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/property/839350/House-prices-property-crash-metric-banks
  22. I truly do believe sentiment is changing, albeit slowly...and that change is coming... A slow and steady decline will be difficult to reverse once it takes hold and is exacerbated by interest rate rises, however small..we just need that momentum... https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/property-prices-in-commuter-towns-slashed-as-rail-season-tickets-continue-to-rise-a3618086.html
  23. The Telegraph really is going all out regarding pressure on stamp duty. Ahem...making one's blood boil... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/first-buy-to-let-now-holiday-homes-end-second-house-dream/
  24. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/15/britons-face-lifetime-debt-bank-england-warns-35-year-mortgages/ What I don't understand, which totally underlines to me the fact the BoE aren't really serious about tackling the problem and want to prop up house prices, is if they are truly concerned, they would legally restrict the maximum length of borrowing to 25 years. Just empty rhetoric back up by inaction...
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