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ARENAPUA

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  1. Correct. https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/604661/will-uk-house-prices-crash-soon
  2. Ain’t gonna happen, the government won’t let it. Extended mortgage periods, increased multiple of salaries, inter-generational mortgages; Lloyds Bank, John Lewis and no doubt Blackrock soon will enter the frey and hoover up new builds @ 25% above asking price just like the US. I’ve been waiting too long for the right thing to happen, and have been repeatedly surprised at the extent to which the government/central banks will go to keep the debt based Ponzi scheme going. If you can afford to, you should buy.
  3. Exactly. And let’s be clear here, higher prices allow governments to inflate away their debts. It’s in their best interests. Albeit it’s at the expense of future generations. They don’t give a shit about us.
  4. And they suffered horrendously for it. No party wants to be the next one.
  5. Boomers/Pensioners only. But all parties mistakenly assume it’s all homeowners. Which is obviously changing.
  6. It’s in every central banks’ interest to inflate away their debts at the expense of retail. The government won’t tolerate house price falls as we veer towards a new election in a couple of years. It’s naive to think the ‘right’ thing will happen. We’ve been here several times before. House prices will keep rising for the next few years.
  7. You’re forgetting that no single government is prepared to be seen as the party that let house prices fall. You can’t taper a Ponzi. Next step is 5.5x salary multiples. I hate to say it but I really do believe houses are too big to fail.
  8. If you think House Prices will ever be allowed to fall, you may as well give in now. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-10198781/Bank-England-considering-easing-mortgage-rules.html?login#readerCommentsCommand-message-field
  9. You can't blame the Tories specifically. Labour would do exactly the same - and actively promoted the house price boom of the 2000's. Remember 110% mortgages? Whose watch was that on. And it was Labour who bailed out the banks in 2008, with no criminal prosecutions, and subsequent creation of moral hazard.
  10. What I'd like to do is for someone to start a new political party with correcting the housing market - ie no government interference, no land banking, limiting access to foreign buyers, limiting the amount people can borrow etc - as their core policy. I do feel there is a huge number of people that are educated and don't want this interference, but they are being ignored. And collectively they would have immense voting power. I have thought about looking into it myself but wouldn't know where to start, and would have no idea what to call the party lol.
  11. I think it's Game Over. The next decade will see a house price boom akin to the noughties. And there's no going back for the government from here. They won't be able to retreat from this 'support' once it's fully embedded. I've held off from buying a house for so long - I'm 50 this year. I've been naive and have thought sooner or later, the market will be allowed to follow it's own path. I've been wrong footed at every turn. I've got a sizeable deposit and was planning on seeing how this year panned out before buying with what I feel would be a reasonable mortgage. Now I feel like the rush is back on again - again, just like in the noughties - and it makes me feel anxious. Everyone will be filling their boots. Bank lending will expand beyond all recognition again. So I need to concede defeat and jump in. Total madness.
  12. Interesting, semi reasonable article and good for her but as always doesn't provide complete transparency.. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jan/27/teacher-saver-audi-tt 1) Doesn't say where in the country she lives 2) Says she has help with the deposit - but not how much. 3) Tells of the size of the mortgage but not the total value of the house. She seems like a nice person, quite down to earth; not one of those smug b*stard stories we occasionally get. But I do wonder where these people come from. If I was in that position, I certainly wouldn't go to a newspaper and offer my story. I like my privacy, and what is the point? Are these people actively sought out by data mining? The obvious motive to this story is to still try and persuade young people that it's possible to buy a house. But any sane, reasonably intelligent person would scoff at the (small) amount she borrowed being totally irrelevant in today's environment - more likely to create a backlash than not me thinks. Looking at the number of reduced properties happening in the market now, and the (slight) change in media sentiment, I feel quite relaxed about the current environment. I live on the estate this property is located on. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63363292.html Young couple, and they were totally taking the p*ss when first put on the market (I think at somewhere in the region of £315 or £320k). It's listed as a house but is essentially a flat above a car port with one allocated space. It's labelled as a house because it is an isolated building with just them in it. No garden...nothing. Stairs go immediately from the front door to the first floor living quarters. I'm bl**dy happy because the flat has dropped significantly in the last month to £310k and now a couple of weeks later to £290k. I still think completely overpriced - but I am loving the evidence of final capitulation.. :-) I predict will be a small steady prolonged downward trend this year. After a year of consistent reductions, buyers will be in a good place to negotiate discounts with sellers who are worried about further falls. I intend to buy towards the back end of this year, with offers 10% under asking price.
  13. So why not present the seasonally adjusted numbers also?
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