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House Price Crash Forum

Diver Dan

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Posts posted by Diver Dan

  1. From what I can see, a lot of people don't actually want to sell, if they did, they'd be paying the agent to price their houses more realistically. Rather, they must simply enjoy the delusion/ego boost of knowing that they "could" ride off into the sunset with half a million quid if they wanted.

    They really aren't house sellers, they're just people who happen to have some pictures of their house on a website.

  2. 2 hours ago, spyguy said:

    Theres a catch!??

    I know a couple whove overstretched for a htb loan.

    They hate the estate they live in now - sh1thole, bad neighbours.

    Neithers i come hs gone up in the last 5 years. They face a 25% uptick in houding costs.

    At least they have a roof over their heads.

    I mentioned this on the Aberdeen thread already. A friend of a friend bought a HTB+BOMAD newbuild straight out of university. Everything was going great until she was made redundant and had to move to Edinburgh where she now rents. She currently can't sell the Aberdeen flat and getting consent to let on a HTB mortgage is apparently very difficult.

  3. Compensation paid if it must be, but how about if the payee's credit rating gets "adjusted" for the rest of their life to indicate the level of potential risk to any future lenders they may approach?

    If I were a financial institution, I'd want fair warning if a prospective mark customer were likely to come sniffing around 10 years later for a mistake that they made but is somehow my fault.

  4. I'm still seeing clothes shops with plenty of stock left on their sale rails. People have, I think, generally got enough 'stuff' to last them until they actually need to buy more.

    Companies who engineer obsolescence into their products by reducing quality levels can only do so much to bring forward repeat sales before eventually the customer just feels alienated.

    Councils who do their utmost to make the 'brick and mortar' shopping experience as unpleasant as possible through things like dirty streets and oppressive parking charges are also to blame.

  5. Citylets Q4 Report

    Overall -4.3% year on year for Aberdeen.

    Karolina Robertson - Aberdein Considine 

    “After an exceptionally busy Q3, the market slowed down slightly during the 
    fourth quarter of 2017, however, rent values have remained the same. With 
    respect to the number of signed tenancies, our performance can be compared 
    to Q4 of 2015. We expect 2018 will bring some stability with a better balance 
    of supply and demand which should lead to a slow recovery of rental values. 
    With the new legislation introduced on the 1st December, we have focused on 
    staff training and implementing new procedures in preparation for the market 
    conditions improving in 2018.”

  6. 1 hour ago, Houdini said:

    The issue will be that most marginal buyer won't be able to pay enough to ensure the outstanding IO mortgage on the property the landlord seriously overpaid for is paid off. After all the market for the last few years has just been the most desperate greatest fools buying in the hope prices continue to rise. 

    I suspect most landlords will never be in a position where they can sell their properties and will now end up in a holding pattern, desperately trying to keep their rowing boat from sinking until a Bank decides enough is enough and makes their move. And remember Natwest have already moved their more worrying customers to a department who will just pull the plug as soon as any opportunity arrives to pull that plug. 


    You're probably right. I was referring to when/if BTL lenders decide that 'enough is enough'. 

    I could also see legislation for 'right to buy' or right to first refusal for private tenants whose home is being reposessed coming in. It wouldn't do me much use because the flat i rent is smaller and less nice than one that I would consider buying; the rent is affordable and it's conveniently located though.

  7. 1 hour ago, shackleford said:

    Interesting!  Thanks for that.  I wonder how this will be spun by the local press / ASPC...  or will they just ignore it?

    I've come to the conclusion that the local meeja's and ASPC's reports are more interesting for the information that they leave out than what they put in.

  8. 14 minutes ago, kzb said:

    I imagine all the hands-on work is done by contractors.  All Carillion have to do is pay out a little less to the contractors than they receive from their mates in government.

    If it's anything like road contracts in England, you never see anyone actually working.  There'll be lots of money being paid though.

    I've had jobs like that myself where it feels like about a dozen different companies and people are having a go on my paycheque before a single penny of it sees the inside of my bank account.

  9. 3 minutes ago, kzb said:

    When people say they have no assets that may be true but they have a lot of ongoing contracts to milk, such as this.

    I think it is a bit too easy to go bust these days.  This company has a large income stream and it ought to be possible to squeeze a small profit from it with halfway competent management.

    I think it comes down to the cladding.  No-one has said anything about this yet.

    The bypass has only about a year left until it's finished and opened, all the big expensive stuff like earthworks, bridges and culverts are mostly complete. It's mostly fiddly but not particularly technical stuff like laying tarmac and finishing slip roads etc. that's left.

  10. 31 minutes ago, Errol said:

    Carillion's government projects

    • HS2 Building part of the high-speed rail line between London, Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester

    • MoD homes Maintains 50,000 homes for the Ministry of Defence

    • Schools Manages nearly 900 buildings nationwide

    • Network Rail Second largest supplier of maintenance services

    • Prisons Holds £200m in prison contracts

    They're also one of the biggest contractors in the £750M Aberdeen bypass.

  11. On 07/12/2017 at 5:10 PM, Diver Dan said:

    Following on from Quine above:

    October's Rightmove sales figures are 343 sales for Aberdeen. Plenty of tasty reductions of you want to plough through the listings.

    5293 properties currently on ASPC for sale and 748 for rent.

    Citylets sitting at 1251.

    That time of the month again!

    November's Rightmove showed 299 sales.

    5067 currently for sale on ASPC and 733 for rent.

    1306 for rent on Citylets.

    Edit to add, Registers of Scotland's monthly report should be out next week, possibly Monday.

  12. Pure Gym seem to be expanding quite rapidly right now; 4 in Aberdeen alone. Maybe not a collapse in 2018 but maybe one to watch because I doubt their expansion is sustainable long-term once rents start to increase etc.

    I'm a member and go several times a week and I like it as a gym because I can visit several different branches if I'm working in another city and their membership is a rolling monthly payment rather than an annual subscription. 

  13. 31 minutes ago, shortbread said:

    HALIFAX: Aberdeen average house prices sees 1.1% Fall, YoY

    The study seems to conflict with a recent report compiled by Aberdein Considine. (ouch!)


    As I recall, that A&C report was +0.1% so not a million miles away from -1.1%. There's little point in comparing different surveys which use different methodologies and samples though.

    The corresponding Halifax Report for 2016 showed a 6.9% decline for Aberdeen. Arguably, a fall of just 1.1% could be seen as an improvement. 

  14. I don't think anybody would be so unwise

    1 hour ago, EME said:

    Great post CGS, don't disagree with any of that.

    There are certainly many more positive signs than negative for the Aberdeen market in 2018

    The real proof that the Aberdeen market is  recovering will be when this thread goes quiet for many months as it has in the past.

    You appear to conflate the "Aberdeen [housing] market" with the wider economy.

    Even if there is an improvement in the oil industry, be it a mild uptick or a massive price boom, it does not follow necessarily that house prices will rise due to many factors external to Aberdeen: MMR; S24; expected interest rate rises etc. which in my opinion are more likely to affect house prices in the city and region than a few day-rate guys finding they'll get a bit more money for working in an office in Kingswells than one in Westhill.

  15. I read the thread, elsewhere in it he says that prior to becoming a landlord he had invested in financial markets and incurred some heavy losses. He's likely about to do the same thing with houses.

    Probably a clever guy in some areas but someone who should just stick to being a doctor and put any spare money in his Post Office savings.

  16. 15 hours ago, Calcutta said:

    We'll need a camera, a house with a tiny front garden we're supposed to be proud of and an interracial couple with matching child dressed in clothes from John Lewis.

    And somebody with one of the fashionable regional accents to do the voice. Nowhere South of the Pennines basically. 

    I'm thinking that the dialogue should be over the loud ticking of an attractive wall-clock, it would give the subliminal message of time running out.

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