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Tuberider

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Everything posted by Tuberider

  1. I cannot argue with you here, even if I wanted to. Our politicians are indeed stupid.
  2. 30 years or 300 years, injustice is injustice and should not be tolerated. The British held Cyprus for 100 years. Did we accept them as our Masters ? No. The Turks held Greece for 400 years, did the Greeks bend over quietly ? No, they did not. i like your phrasing : 'buying up your lands' 'indiginous population' 'talking to the cypriots' I picture you as one of these Victorian Englishmen in a colonial safari suit speaking to the natives
  3. Bull 1) Glad we agree 2) It is good if they show us in a bad light, maybe this will discourage more British moving over. I can never understand this mentality of coming here to live, not bothering to learn the language or culture, and then whinging and moaning about how you were ripped off by some dodgy estate agent/solicitor/developer. 3) Turk bashing is not my intention, although you are right in suggesting I have an axe to grind after being expelled from my home in Kyrenia at gunpoint in 1974 by Turkish troops. 4) Maybe we will take it back some day, maybe we won't. But the wheel turns my friend, and what goes around surely does come back to you. For sure we will not accept some half-baked Annan plan cooked up by Anglo-American interests which gives us second degree citizen status in our own country. We may be a small country, but we are not stupid. hope you are enjoying your sunburn and loukanika,
  4. Time will tell I guess. But I think you are very short sighted. The improvement of the 'northern' Cyprus economy is only a side-effect from the property boom which has spilled over to this pariah state as the poorer chavvy types who have been priced out of the Paphos expat enclaves buy their budget place in the sun. Watch the 'northern' economy tank, along with the Turkish lira, once the property market crashes and the speculative liquidity is flushed out of the turkish finacial system in the upcoming 'emerging markets' collapse. The economy of the north is built on illegal property speculation and nothing more.
  5. Bull nobody disputes that there are unsavoury business people here in Cyprus (as there are in every other country on earth) I did not see the show, but whether the house was built or not before they turned up is irrelevant - those who buy in 'northern' Cyprus are fools to say the least. We will take it all back, just watch us.
  6. 'northern' Cyprus Cyprus was ethnically cleansed of it's Greek inhabitants by the Turks in 1974 (Turkey likes to invade its neighbours about every 30 years and make a land grab. Greece, Syria, Cyprus, and now it looks like Iraq will be next). Most property there belongs to to the Greeks who were expelled and Turkey is being forced to comepensate the rightful owners by the European Court of Human Rights. The pseudostate of 'northern' Cyprus is not recognized by any other country apart from Turkey and is in the 'basket case' leagues together with North Korea and Zimbabwe. Anyone buying property there has to be a fool. The Republic Of Cyprus Nice piece in today's mail: Tales From The Coffeeshop The Cyprus Mail 25th October 2007 Defying the laws of economics DURING the stock market bubble, half our compatriots became investors, while a big number became stockbrokers, agents of stockbroker offices, market analysts and financial gurus in order to cash in on the national craze, financed by the investment loans given out like bargain warehouse flyers by our banks and other lending houses. It all ended in tears. For the last few years, we have been witnessing the development of another bubble – the property market – which has turned every Costis/Yiannis into estate agents, middlemen, developers, contractors and land speculators. This latest craze has also been financed by our socially responsible banks, which have been offering housing loans to anyone who walked into their branches on condition they had not been declared bankrupt. Thanks to the banks’ eagerness to give loans, property prices have gone through the roof, particularly in Nicosia, where prices for houses and land have more than doubled in the last few years. A big new house with swimming pool in Ayios Andreas is currently for sale for £1.5 million, while someone recently bought a similarly palatial home in Archangelos, which is not exactly Manhattan, for 850 grand. You have to be a special kind of nut-case or a Russian to pay this kind of silly money for a house in Archangelos, unless it was built with gold rather than concrete. Sellers are quoting loony prices, in the hope that some schmuck comes along. One Coffeeshop customer was recently asked for £450,000 for a house in a particularly unattractive Makedonitissa neighbourhood, with a pool and paved garden that was a little like the Larnaca promenade. The house was sold this week at 70 grand below the asking price, so who is taking the piss? The sellers, the estate agents or the banks, which are over-valuing properties in order to justify their irrational lending policies? THE LAW of demand and supply injected a small dose of economic sanity in the above instance, but this is not always the case, as one person looking for a building plot recently found out. About a year ago, he had enquired about buying a plot in the unfashionable suburb of Kaimakli and was offered a rather small plot for £60,000, but decided not to go ahead with the purchase. A couple of weeks ago, he received a telephone call from the estate agent to whom he had initially spoken and was asked if he was still interested in the plot. The estate agent informed him that as a result of the rising property market, the plot was now for sale for £120,000 and that he had to give an answer by the end of the day! The potential buyer did not wait until the end of the day to do a Tassos and respond with a resounding ‘NO’. We Cypriots are so smart we can even defy laws of economics. The owner could not sell his crappy plot for 60 grand, so a year later he decided to double the price in the hope of a quick sale. The LSE’s distinguished economist Professor Pissarides may have narrowly missed out on the Nobel prize for economics last week, but it will not be long before a Cypriot wins this award for re-inventing the law of demand and supply. Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2007
  7. Tales From The Coffeeshop The Cyprus Mail 25th October 2007 Defying the laws of economics DURING the stock market bubble, half our compatriots became investors, while a big number became stockbrokers, agents of stockbroker offices, market analysts and financial gurus in order to cash in on the national craze, financed by the investment loans given out like bargain warehouse flyers by our banks and other lending houses. It all ended in tears. For the last few years, we have been witnessing the development of another bubble – the property market – which has turned every Costis/Yiannis into estate agents, middlemen, developers, contractors and land speculators. This latest craze has also been financed by our socially responsible banks, which have been offering housing loans to anyone who walked into their branches on condition they had not been declared bankrupt. Thanks to the banks’ eagerness to give loans, property prices have gone through the roof, particularly in Nicosia, where prices for houses and land have more than doubled in the last few years. A big new house with swimming pool in Ayios Andreas is currently for sale for £1.5 million, while someone recently bought a similarly palatial home in Archangelos, which is not exactly Manhattan, for 850 grand. You have to be a special kind of nut-case or a Russian to pay this kind of silly money for a house in Archangelos, unless it was built with gold rather than concrete. Sellers are quoting loony prices, in the hope that some schmuck comes along. One Coffeeshop customer was recently asked for £450,000 for a house in a particularly unattractive Makedonitissa neighbourhood, with a pool and paved garden that was a little like the Larnaca promenade. The house was sold this week at 70 grand below the asking price, so who is taking the piss? The sellers, the estate agents or the banks, which are over-valuing properties in order to justify their irrational lending policies? THE LAW of demand and supply injected a small dose of economic sanity in the above instance, but this is not always the case, as one person looking for a building plot recently found out. About a year ago, he had enquired about buying a plot in the unfashionable suburb of Kaimakli and was offered a rather small plot for £60,000, but decided not to go ahead with the purchase. A couple of weeks ago, he received a telephone call from the estate agent to whom he had initially spoken and was asked if he was still interested in the plot. The estate agent informed him that as a result of the rising property market, the plot was now for sale for £120,000 and that he had to give an answer by the end of the day! The potential buyer did not wait until the end of the day to do a Tassos and respond with a resounding ‘NO’. We Cypriots are so smart we can even defy laws of economics. The owner could not sell his crappy plot for 60 grand, so a year later he decided to double the price in the hope of a quick sale. The LSE’s distinguished economist Professor Pissarides may have narrowly missed out on the Nobel prize for economics last week, but it will not be long before a Cypriot wins this award for re-inventing the law of demand and supply. Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2007
  8. the company i work for builds, operates and manages cargo ships it doesnt take that long to build a vessel. the chinese can churn out a 1000 teu contaniership in no time this boom is unprecedented, like no other seen before it. but the wise ones know it is cyclical and they are expecting the crash to come in 2009 sometime. i believe that those who will get really hurt are the companies building these huge 12,000 teu contships (like Maersk) and the greeks who have invested heavily in supertankers the operators who have a more evenly distributed exposure will do much better during the coming bust despite this they are still building like crazy, the whole industry is in a frenzy. to give you some idea, we will take delivery of 103 vessels between now and 2011 and where will the crew come from to work all these ships ? only God knows. we already have an acute shortage of qualified officers. salaries are going through the roof as there are not enough crewmembers to go around it truly is an interesting time
  9. another one from the JC , although here he revises his earlier forecast of a 20% fall to 30%
  10. Nottingham is in its fourth year of price drops ? I had no idea. Do you have evidence of this ? Harrison's models are a very useful guide I reckon, but should not be relied on exclusively. I think he might be bang-on with the 18-year cycle, but some of his other predictions are not so hot. For example, I remember reading somewhere that he believed the winner's curse would see prices rise outside of London while London stayed level, as the previous London rises rippled outwards. But what we've seen is clearly the opposite; London has powered ahead while the rest of the country (save a few areas like NI etc) has stayed flat. He also stated that prices will drop 'by up to 20%' - seems too little to me, given the meteoric rises we have seen during the biggest bubble in history. I will have a google for those links and post them if I find them...
  11. This concept is nothing new, throughout history speculators and financiers have typically been 'international' in nature - the true speculator needs to stay mobile, like a vulture circling above, ready to swoop down and pick out the guts of the fools who crashed and burned during the latest slump. When the carcasses are picked clean they move on. I like this guy: www.workingnomad.com Another type of 'international man', but far from the Bubb prototype discussed above.
  12. Good isn't it ? Always seems that little book is overlooked, yet all the answers to the conundrum may be in there
  13. Seems that he might be right all along. Back in 2005 when many thought the crash was around the corner, he was telling us that no blood would be spilled until 2008. And while the false HPC prophets have all been unmasked as charlatans, old Freddie is looking more and more like the real deal. If his 18-year property cycle holds true, then it means you can comfortably predict (and ride) the next cycle upwards - buy in the trough and get out close to the peak. Or at least as close as anyone can. It will be interesting to see if it works. Has anyone else read the book ?
  14. for those interested in self-sufficiency, get john seymour's book. excellent overview. also- Self-reliance: A Recipe for the New Millennium by John Yeoman ANORTHOSITE - does your name refer to the CY football team ??? curious..
  15. I live in Cyprus (the legal, recognized bit) Spend my weekends on the beach or in the mountains. Good food and wine. Always sunny. Safe. Very very low crime rate. Too many Brits nowadays though.
  16. Fred you cannot believe the acute sense of relief i feel for having escaped from the UK after reading your thread get out while you can, the grass IS greener
  17. PanamaJack, you are a dangerous and irresponsible individual. Please stop telling people to invest in northern Cyprus, you well know that that part of the island is occupied by the Turkish army since the invasion of 1974, and is a pariah state recognized only by Turkey. The 'TRNC' as they call themselves is a haven for criminals and deviants of all kinds, as it has no extradition treaty with any civilized country. Polly Peck Scamster Asil Nadir, Drug Baron Gary Robb, and rotten meat merchant 'Maggot' Pete Roberts (among thousands of others) are among the criminals who have fled to this lawless place to escape from justice. Does anyone REALLY want to sink their hard-earned money into a place like that ? Do you want every pedophile, deviant and wanted drug dealer who managed to escape from Europe before trial as your neighbor ? The sad stories documented on Victoria's website are only the tip of the iceberg. Gullible Brits are ripped off in the 'TRNC' daily, and with no law or recognized legal system to protect their rights they are like lambs to the slaughter. To make things worse, most new development there is on seized Greek Cypriot properties which were stolen from their rightful owners in 1974. Whether there is a solution or not, some form of property exchange will occur and it will mean that the 'investors' who bought homes illegally will be ordered to return them to their rightful owners. The clock is ticking for 'Northern' Cyprus, we are coming to take back what was stolen from us and justice will prevail.
  18. New action needed on building boom By Stelios Orphanides AUTHORITIES need to take prudent new measures to tame a construction boom that threatens the soundness of the country's banking system just as it is about to adopt the euro, economists warned yesterday. Despite a newly reduced ceiling on lending for holiday home buyers, bank credit grew in August by an annual 25 per cent, as investors sought to beat the introduction of value-added tax to land sales from the end of this year. The availability of cheap loans that has been stoking the construction boom could even increase when Cyprus joins the euro zone in January since the bloc's interest rates are currently half a percentage point lower than those of Cyprus. "There is currently a bubble [in the real estate market], comparable to what we had at the stock exchange between 1999 and 2000," said Yiannis Telonis from Hellenic Bank. However, Telonis cautioned that construction was the economy's locomotive at present, and there would be negative consequences if it were slowed down too abruptly. "It is not up to the Central Bank to fix this problem. It is an issue of the [government's] general economic, development and social policy," he said. Economist Marios Mavrides said imposing a property tax could go some way to addressing the problem, as could halving the island's capital gains tax to 10 per cent to make alternative investments more attractive. "[but] if they take too drastic action, property prices will suffer and so will mortgages," he added. Central Bank governor Athanasios Orphanides warned on Monday of probable risks for the banking system, should credit expansion persist as a result of local banks competing intensely to boost profits and market share. According to price tracker BuySell Home Price Index, house prices increased 9.7 per cent in July year-on-year and 1.8 per cent compared to June. The average lending rate for housing loans has fallen since Cyprus' EU accession in May 2004 from 7.3 per cent to 5.94 per cent in July this year. Economist Mavrides said he could not rule out a scenario similar to that of the US subprime loans mess, and a repetition of 2002 and 2003, when Cypriot bank results were battered by exposure to a poorly-performing stock market. Mavrides said a speculative bubble behind property inflation was mainly rooted in VAT introduction. It was introduced on buildings in 2004, and is will apply to land sales from 2008. Once the VAT target date was passed, Mavrides said demand for real estate was likely to decrease as investors took more account of price-to-income ratios in assessing the value of real estate deals. Mavrides said there was a danger that in two or three years, clients would experience difficulties in paying back their debts. "The expected decrease in interest rates as a result of euro adoption will not be able to offset the decrease in demand," he said. Mavrides' views on the effect of lending on the banks' profitability are not shared by bankers. "We are not concerned that the quality of our asset portfolio will be affected as we have not relaxed the criteria for the approval of new loans we introduced years ago," Yiannis Kypri from Bank of Cyprus, said. The Bank of Cyprus policy followed Central Bank guidelines and offered the bank a protective "cushion" to offset risks of a probable decline in property price, Kypri added. In 2006, the direct contribution of the construction sector to the island's GDP was 7.5 per cent. One in 10 Cypriots worked in the construction industry in 2004. Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2007
  19. this guy has been making waves across the island lately with his tale of woe: http://www.lyingbuilder.com/ i'll never undertsand people who buy off-plan. why would you spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on something you can't see ?
  20. not so sure i agree with that... i dont see too much building along the i-10 corridor these days, certainly not as much as there was five years ago. there are some developments along the baytown section and some in the west as well but generally i see a slowdown on all fronts. there is a hell of a lot of unsold property especially in crosby and around IAH - my company was looking for a residential house to turn into an office last month and prices were certainly very very soft since katrina all the miads in my hotel are now black, no more mexican, and most of the new stevedores in the various port terminals also seem to be black katrina refugees. i think a lot of the katrina blacks who didnt make it to houston scattered north, moving from one hurricane-prone city to another was not really a solution for many of them and a lot moved away from the gulf coast altogether. in nola though mexicans have certainly filled the void since katrina and i see nola being a mexican city in future and no longer a 'chocolate city' not being argumenatative, just my view of the big H as some one who knows and (sometimes) loves the place
  21. House prices tumble in Latvia The Financial Mirror 07/08/2007 The end of the Baltics house price boom. House prices have begun to fall in the Greater Riga area – a fall of 3.5% in the month of June 2007, following a fall 1% in May 2007, according to the leading Latvian real estate agent Latio. Prices have fallen “for the first time in history”, says Latio, which if not quite accurate, emphasizes the sense of shock. These figures are consistent with recent warning signs. But they are all the more shocking in that year-on-year to Q1 2007, Latvia was Europe’s strongest performing housing market with house price rises of 44.23% during the year, according to Latvia’s Central Statistical Bureau. The Global Property Guide believes these latest figures signal the end of the Great Baltic House Price Boom. Estonia started falling before Latvia, as is normal in the Baltics. We have long suggested that low rental returns in the Baltics mean that investors should be very cautious. The decline of house prices also reflects several serious economic problems which have accumulated in Latvia: The current account deficit rose to 26.3% of GDP in 4Q 2006, from 15.2% a year earlier. Inflation was sharply up at 8.9% in April 2007, up from 6.5% last year, and 1.9% in 2002. Loans to residents grew 60.4% in the year to Q4 2006 (58.2% and 61.7% in the previous two years). Long-term interest rates are sharply up. Worsening Ratings In February Standard & Poor’s (S&P) put on negative watch its rating in Latvia’s long-term forex-denominated liabilities, and then on 17 May lowered the rating from A- to BBB+. This brings Latvia back to the rating it held in 2002. The Lats, pegged to the Euro since January 1, 2005, came under pressure in February in response to the S&P revision, and the Bank of Latvia had to intervene. The Euribor interest rate on Euro variable rate loans jumped to 10% in June 2007, from 5% this January. Obviously, this rise in interest rates has had a substantial effect. So too have government attempts to cool the market through the banking system. So too have recent legislative changes, e.g., the imposition of a 25% tax on personal income from real estate sold within a year of purchase. Painful adjustments needed Till recently Latvia was Europe’s No1 house price performer. Now Latvia is in deflationary mode, with house prices falling and spending restrained. Local players can be expected to adjust to the new realities, but with a delay, which can be expected to exaggerate the downturn. In June, 2007, 19 new housing projects were announced, after 15 projects in May, April, March, and January this year (February saw a spike in apartment project launches to 26). This means that by historical standards, a very large number of new apartment projects continues to come on to the market. Lower residential returns signal stop! The price of good quality used apartments in prime locations in Central Riga ranges from EUR2,900 to EUR 3,143 per square metre, according to the Global Property Guide (survey conducted 24 Nov 2006). Houses in similar locations are slightly cheaper, ranging from EUR 2,521 to EUR 2,700 per square metre. These prices are high relative to Latvia’s GDP per capita, being on a par with Scandinavian countries (see table). In Riga, city centre average prices rose from around EUR 1,264 per sq. m. in August 2004, to around EUR 3,011 at end-2006 – a 138% increase in just over two years. Meanwhile, in Riga average monthly rents have risen, but not nearly so much, from around EUR 8.20 per sq. m. to around EUR 12.64 per sq. m. – an increase of around 54%. Riga rental income returns (average for all sizes) have therefore fallen over the past two years, from around 7.85% to an average of 5.04% (the figures in the table above represent not average yields, but yields for apartments of 120 sq. m.). These yields are not unreasonable. However in the particular situation of Latvia, such moderate yields, in the context of a continued very strong stream of new apartment offerings, and a sharp uptick in local long-term price of money, would make us very cautious. Unless the economic cycle has disappeared from economics, it would seem to us that a cyclical peak has approached, and that for the moment investors should pause.
  22. interesting thread on one of the cyprus expat forums: http://www.cyprusliving.org/phpbb/nfphpbb/...opic.php?t=3006
  23. you are wrong there - we are not really in trouble right now. in fact this is the tail end of the good times - everything is pretty much still booming the REAL problems will start when we have the credit crunch and liquidity is removed from the system outstanding loans will still have to be paid USA is in the early stages of this right now
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