Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


New Members
  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Tuberider

  1. Could not have put it any better myself Raising good, honest and functional memebers of society THE job to work at, not getting rich
  2. Freddy is the Don, the Mack, the Daddy Buy the book and keep it close
  3. Thanks for the comments. Yes it is a very good book, well written and totally engaging. I was engrossed and could not put it down until I finished it. I think there is much to learn there for senior manager types and negotiators. However, his refections on the meaning of wealth and what it means to spend your life persuing money crystallized a great many of my own deep-rooted and long held suspicions and confirmed something that I have always subconciously known: money isn't really that important after a certain point, and spending your life hacking away at getting rich is not a meaningful persuit. Dennis repeats my own belief that only three things are worth stressing about in life: Love, Health and Time. I am not about to throw my life down the toilet, sabotage my family life and my health working like a slave in a foolish attempt to get rich. Dennis made it, but I am sure that he is one of a tiny percentage. Millions fall by the wayside. In any case, what do riches bring you ? Paranoia ? Suspicion ? Alienation and loneliness ? Have know a few rich people in my time, including one in the mega-rich oligarch category, and I can honestly say they don't seem to be any happier than the people I know without money. If anything, knowing them has turned me off the idea of getting rich. Their kids are all horrible for one thing. And the idea of having servants and a huge mansion etc is repulsive to me. Although a nice boat, travel, and security would all be very welcome. I like money and want more of it. But only because it brings me the luxury of TIME. Time to spend with my family and friends, time to persue my hobbies and passions. I know it's a cliché but the best things in life are free A happy marriage and good kids Family and friends, time spent together Health - who can ever underestimate that one ? I would not exchange my healthy physique for that of Dennis at my age (short fat dwarf type suffering from variety of disorders) for all the money on earth Clean barreling waves on a hot summer's day, fish darting beneath you in the clear blue water as you take off and drive the board down the line Bliss
  4. nope, havn't forgotten freddy, in fact the reason why i so rarely visit and post here these days is because i beleive that he's nailed it all in that book of his and further debate seems a bit pointless if he is right, that is. so far he seems to be bang on the money.
  5. I am not naive enough to believe that a book can make anyone rich. But Dennis is a really interesting character and very engaging. It's really very good, trust me.
  6. mousey, I never said I thought the book would make me rich. I said i thoroughly enjoyed it and asked if anyone else had read it.
  7. Edit Dennis was/is a multimillionaire many times over decades before writing this book
  8. actually, no. for two reasons. 1) I only just finished reading the book so the timeframe is too small for any meaningful accumulation of wealth 2) If Dennis is correct then I am not willing to do what is necessary to become rich. Did you read the book, mousey ? Or are you just judging the book by the proverbial cover
  9. Read this book recently and thoroughly enjoyed it: http://www.amazon.co.uk/How-Get-Rich-Felix...4685&sr=1-1 Brutally honest and unsentimental. Dennis is a bit of a monster, but I found myself liking him, even pitying him at times. He spent the best years of his life chasing money and you can smell his loneliness and regret (I suspect probably at not ever getting married and having children) on every page. Anybody else read it ? What are your thoughts on it ? Mods, feel free to move this after some seasoning.
  10. Ah yeah I lived in Zakaki for a few years, I like that side of town much better. Closer to the good beaches and Fassouri is great for bike riding and hiking. The east side of town is a bit dull if you ask me, and the beaches in town are crap. Yes it's true that Lanitis will cut down the citrus groves and build a golf course and resort. My only hope is that it will not be too ugly and intrusive and that they will leave the roadside trees alone as they have been there for decades. Airport - maybe I should check my facts, but it certainly appears to be a separate entity entirely, albeit very close to the existing facility. I just flew back from the UK a few days ago and had a good look as we landed. It is being built about half a click from the exisiting airport on the far eastern end of the runways, where all the cranes are. P. S. I seem to remember you had a plot or something in Kolossi, did you sell it in the end ? PPS. Sorry about the fish meze, didn't mean to rub it in. if it's any consolation it's windy and raining today and about 20 deg
  11. Radio Sorry I thought you were over here - Keo on me next time. It really is very warm for November though. Still in my shorts and t-shirt during the day, although the nights havea slight nip to them now. YBC Bit busy today so forgive my slapdash answers, Re Crash I guess around 30% minimum, but I can't really define it. For me a crash means that prices fall back in line with fundamentals, and the speculative premium is blown off the top of the price. Personally I don't like to pay 12 times the annual rent for any property, but that's just me. These 2-bed newbuilds are worth only around 50k by my book. Lets say you buy one of those new flats like many people are. You pay 115k inc VAT and put down the central bank stipulated 40% and borrow 60%, or 69k. At 5% over 25 years your monthly payment will be in excess of 400 quid, well above the £350 rent you can glean from an oversaturated market. And that's not even factoring in any possible interest rate rises. If Cyprus is such a small overcrowded island and more and more people want to come here, then why the hell aren't rents rising ? The arguement doesn't make sense. Re holiday lettings Mate I could not really tell you... Yes, your figures look optimistic but as you say, everything is a risk. I guess it could work. I have some friends that do this, and from what I can see it needs time and attention. Some have done well out of it, others not. Most would agree that finding a good agent is the key, and that letting is a way to subsidize (not cover) the mortgage. Some practical problems faced are trashing of flats/furniture by holidaymakers and very high utility bills (people leaving the a/c running day and night etc etc) There are some good threads on the Eastern Cyprus forum and Cyprus Living concerning holiday lets, have a look.
  12. That is the million dollar question, my reptilian friend. Show me a market through history that has sustained such gains without crashing thereafter. The disparity between apartment prices and rents should be enough to worry anybody. A newbuilt 2 bedroom apartment sells now for around 100k plus VAT. Rent is no more than 350 Cy pounds a month. I challenge anyone to rent their flat for more than that.
  13. Hi Radio I don't know about Paphos as I have not been there for a while, but Larnaka's new airport is definetly a separate entity, albeit very close to the crappy existing one. The new marina in Limassol has not yet been signed, but the plans look great. Sort of like Dubai's palm tree development. The negative side is that it has been designed as a 'city within a city' - with shops, hotels, and yes you guessed it, hundreds of new residential properties, all commissioned to be built by Cybarco ! I mean who the hell is going to buy all these properties when they cannot sell the existing ones ! I don't post on CL, although I lurk there from time to time. More negative press for the CY property market from today's Cyprus Mail. Keep well and enjoy the sunshine. I'm off for a swim and a fish meze at curium. ============== New loan rules cooling down the property market By Jacqueline Theodoulou THE CENTRAL Bank has reduced loan financing for property purchases to 60 per cent in order to protect banks from a worrying increase in loans, the Central Bank (CB) Governor said yesterday. Speaking before the House Commerce Committee, Athanasios Orphanides explained that the continuous and worrying demand for property loans in Cyprus had forced the CB into reducing financing from 70 per cent of the cost of a purchase to 60 per cent. He added, however, that banks would continue to finance 80 per cent of first-time property purchases, a decision made to encourage young people into buying their first home. AKEL Deputy Stavros Evagorou, who submitted the matter for discussion, requested that Parliament be informed on the consequences of the CB’s decision to alter its financing conditions, pointing out that the holiday home sector had seen great developments over the past few years, reaching seven to eight per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and attracting significant investments from abroad. Orphanides explained that the CB’s July 12 decision to reduce financing to 60 per cent was taken because the economy was showing strong risks of overheating with inflationist tendencies. He added that the rate at which loans had increased in 2007 had doubled from the year before, pointing out that in the first eight months of 2007, 28 per cent of the increase in loans was in the property sector and if it continued at the same rate, it would surpass 40 per cent by the end of the year. Orphanides told deputies that dangers for banks were continuously increasing, mainly due to the dire developments in the property sector internationally, and they needed to be restricted. A Finance Ministry spokesman agreed with the CB’s decision, saying he understood the dangers banks were facing with the accumulation of loans and inflationist pressures. Responding to deputies’ questions, Orphanides explained that any EU citizen could acquire their first home in Cyprus and receive financing under the same conditions as Cypriots. He added that immoderate growth along with immoderate property price increases could not continue if the economy was to develop healthily. “We want reasonable growth,” said Orphanides, adding that he did not know when prices were going to return to normal standards. The head of the Land Registry Office pointed out that the increase in property prices was due to increases in land value. He explained that by the time a plot of land reaches the land developer, it has been sold three and four times, which contributes to property prices hitting the roof. He added that there had been a decrease in land purchases since the CB’s decision to reduce the rate of financing, and suggested that financing be reduced to 50 per cent for land purchases. The European Party’s Demetris Syllouris pointed out that property investments from abroad had decreased by 50 per cent and continued to drop. He added that if property sales had dropped since the CB’s decision, then the measure was not just wrong but tragic. Committee Chairman Lefteris Christoforou of DISY said after the meeting: “The government’s has once again been exposed, in the absence of a complete housing policy.” The committee called on the CB governor to keep financing for land purchases at 60 per cent, or reduce it to 50 per cent and increase financing for property purchases.
  14. ah while i agree with my esteemed friend radio concerning the oversupply/saturation issue (can i have a link to that article please?) he is in fact wrong concerning the airports two big new airports are under construction right now in larnaka and paphos. the old ones have been renovated only as a temporary measure and will be usedonly for cargo once the new airports are ready in 2009 (paphos) and 2010 (larnaka) you can see the construction of both from the airport roads
  15. Sure, I agree with your statement in very general terms. From my point of view, holiday rentals on short haul budget airline routes should fare better than those further afield during an economic donwturn. Malaysia and Brazil - never been to either so I am afraid I cannot comment. Good luck with those. One more article for you, just out today, which supports my side of the argument. It seems 'foreign demand' is down 50% according to the developers. With local salaries averaging about 800 quid a month, a drop in foreign demand cannot be good news at all. ============== Land Register reacts to CB measures First Published: 30/10/2007 12:13:45 Stockwatch The Central Bank’s decision to cut the lending ceiling for the purchase of a home from 70% to 60% aroused strong feelings to the Land Register. During the House Commerce Committee’s session, which focused on the repercussions from the CB measures, Lang Register Manager, Andreas Christodoulou urged the Central Bank to review its measures. “The problem concerns the land market, where a plot can be sold 3 – 4 times before reaching its final buyer, and not houses. The Central Bank must leave the lending ceiling to 80% for the homes and must cut the ceiling for the purchase of land. In this way, the annual property increases will range between 5% and 10%”, he said. On the other hand, CB Governor, Athanasios Orphanides defended Central Bank’s decision, stressing that there are signs of overheating in economy, as well as inflationary pressures. “Especially in the sector of constructions, the increase is expected to exceed 40% by the end of the year, which is exceptionally alarming. We sought to protect the banks, since the bigger their exposure is in the property market, the bigger is the risk of our economy to be affected by unfavourable conditions in the international environment”, he noted. According to Mr. Orphanides, the CB wishes to see a rational increase in the price of properties, which must be close to Cyprus’s GDP, that is, 4%. “For constructions that were already in progress, the banks kept the plan before the CB decision. We cannot assume when the property price increases will become rational. The CB data on the price of properties are not good”, he added. Responding to the question raised by EVROKO President, Demetris Syllouris, why the CB measures in 2006 were unfruitful, Mr. Orphanides said that if the CB had not taken those measures, the increase in property prices in 2007 would have been even higher. Chairman of Land Developers’ Association, Lakis Tofarides, expressed his concerns on the course of the sector. According to Mr. Tofarides, the measures have affected the purchase of homes by non-Cypriots, since they have recorded a drop of 50%. “We will be able to deal with the repercussions in two years. The Central Bank should not worry about a bubble, since the land is restricted and the prices will continue to increase”, he said. Responding to Mr. Tofarides, Mr. Orphanides said that the non-Cypriots can raise a loan for the purchase of a home in Cyprus to a foreign bank. “We simply want to protect the banks’ loan portfolio”, he insisted. AKEL MP, Stavros Evagorou said that the Parliament should be informed on the latest conditions after the Central Bank’s decision to cut the lending ceiling. “The purchase of second homes grew rapidly in the past few years, reaching 7% - 8% of GDP and attracting significant foreign capital”, he said. On the other hand, Chairman of the Committee and DISY MP, Lefteris Christoforou, said that the Central Bank shouldn’t have taken measures before seeking the Land Register’s advice. Adversely, a Finance Ministry representative stated that the Ministry realizes the risks that emerge from the accumulation of the banks’ portfolio in a sector and the inflationary pressures and agreed with the Central Bank’s decisions. As for EVROKO, Mr. Syllouris said that if sales to non-Cypriots have declined by 50%, the measure is dramatic. “The CB should be exceptionally concerned about this”, he concluded.
  16. good for you, YBC - nice post I see no point in further debate as we are obviously at odds as to what might happen. In any case, we will see quite soon which way it will go. If you change your mind about that property, let me kow
  17. YBC You sound to me like an agent ramping the market up. True, I had thought the bubble here would burst quite a while ago. I certainly believe that prices were well overvalued in 2005 and 2006 and maybe in 2004 as well. Today, they are simply crazy. And I think the fallout will be greater now that things have been stretched so much further. I'll give you my ideas why : 1) Mass overdevelopment. They have built too much, and they are not slowing down at all. To make matters worse, the government is now considering giving the developers power to self-regulate themselves when applying for building permits. As a recent Financial Mirror article stated, this is akin to letting the inmates take over the asylum. Building zones are also set to increase and an extra floor will soon be allowed for urban areas. This will further increase supply in an already glutted market. 2) Massive credit growth. We know that speculative bubbles cannot inflate without a source of cheap and easy credit. The banks here have flooded the market with money and now this is coming to an end. The central bank has recently raised the borrowing limit from 70% to 60% of a properties value. Last week, borrowing by local banks was further restricted by the CB and the local banks like Laiki Marfin and BOC have embarked on an aggressive campaign to attract deposits. Savings rates have jumped from 3.4 - 3.5% to well over 4.5% in the space of a week ! I have moved my money into Laiki and I am now receiving 4.9% locked for 3 months. 3) Bad publicity is growing about Cyprus. Mainly due to lack of title deeds, and dodgy developers ripping off the gullible Brits. Recent channel 4 documentary on selling property abroad a case in point. Also The Cyprus Property Action Group is attracting very bad publicity to the island's property market. 4) Rents are falling. This is evident everywhere you look and not even the estate agents will deny this. Far too many locals and foreigners alike have 'invested' here and there is a severe glut of rental properties on the market. Hardest hit are those who bought holiday homes and hope to rent them out for part of the year to help with the mortgage. Take a look at some of the Cyprus expat forums and you will see what kind of a nightmare this can be. 5) Falling tourist numbers and revenue. While we have had a little revival in the months of July and August the trend is clearly down YOY. To make things worse, our traditional big spenders, the British and Germans, are deserting us. The Brits and Germans SPEND. They drink gallons of beer, eat a lot of food and buy stuff. These tourists are being replaced by Russians, Israelis and Scandinavians, who are not particlarly big spenders. The Russians may have a big reputation but most of them are very low-key. They prefer to scrape along for 2 weeks and then purchase one big item (e.g fur coat) to take back with them. That is why you see a lot of fur coat shops here in and around the tourist areas. The Israelis are the worst kinds of tourist to have, more trouble than they are worth and they want everything for free. We are far better off without them. 6) Budget airlines are well and good and will be very very welcome here, but I think they will not save the Spainish property market from collapsing and I don't think they will save ours either. Maybe you are right on this one and they will increase traffic here, but If there is a recession in the UK then I don't see it making much difference. Other destinations will still be cheaper, with or without the budget airlines. Where in Cyprus did you buy ? I am curious. If you are interested in buying a Cyprus property, I can help you. I have friends who have been trying to sell their places in Limassol for some time, and can hook you up if you like (no commission) Some articles below for your perusal, ================== Price war on Cyprus bank deposits to hurt real estate Financial Mirror 24/10/2007 An intense price war waged by Cyprus’ commercial banks in their bid to attract deposits is likely to hurt the property market, with bankers blaming the Central Bank for imposing tight liquidity conditions in order to control the spectacular increase in loans in the real estate and properties sectors. Marfin Laiki Bank is widely blamed for starting the “price war” to attract deposits by offering exceptionally high rates on 3-, 6-, 12- and 24-month fixed periods, which are above the Lombard lending rate. MPB is offering 20 basis points above LIBOR on 24-month deposits, which is seen as an aggressive move to attract deposits and confirms the tight situation in the Cyprus pound money market. Laiki’s move was immediately matched by Hellenic Bank, which has sent a message to its peers that while it will not start a price war, it is ready to match any such attempt by the others. Bank of Cyprus is widely seen following with its own move soon by offering exceptionally high rates, which is likely to be matched by Alpha Bank and the rest. As one banker told the Financial Mirror, the tight condition in the Cyprus pound money market is a result of the efforts of the Central Bank to drain excess liquidity from the market, as part of its efforts to orchestrate a slowdown in loans directed to the property market. The banks are also at fault, he said, as they rushed to give “too many property loans without the comparative increase in deposits, so now, in order to support those loans, they need to attract deposits, otherwise their ratios will not allow them to carry the loans in their books.” The Central Bank’s decision not to accept an effort by banks to classify their euro surplus funds as local currency only three months ahead of the shift to the common currency has added to the banks’ woes, which otherwise, would simply count their euros in the minimum deposit/loan ratios of the Central Bank. “The Central Bank wants to cool the property market loans and after reducing the deposit requirement for loans, and banning banks from lending to foreigners on margin, now they are squeezing the banks by tightening the liquidity situation,” the senior banker told the Financial Mirror. ====== Cyprus banks go into lending frenzy 17/05/2007 Financial Mirror -- Advances up 21%, deposits surge 21% to CYP 20 bln Cypriots have gone on a massive borrowing spree encouraged by easy and flexible loan products from the commercial banks with the majority snapping up property, which in the process has fuelled prices ever higher. The revelation by the island’s two largest banks, Bank of Cyprus and Marfin Popular Bank that during the first quarter of the year, their loan portfolios galloped at 23% and 28% respectively has been confirmed by figures released by the Central Bank of Cyprus, which shows that total advances by all banks in Cyprus surged 21.3% YoY to CYP 12.51 bln, or a whopping CYP 2.2 bln compared to CYP 10.31 bln a year ago in March 2006. The biggest advance in loans has been channeled into building and construction loans, up 31% YoY to CYP 2.36 bln by contractors and by 28.5% with respect to private loans to CYP 6.3 bln from CYP 4.95 bln a year ago in March. The third largest component of loans, domestic and foreign trade was stable at CYP 1.5 bln. The Cooperative Credit Societies, meanwhile, increased their combined loans by half a billion to CYP 4 bln by March compared to CYP 3.59 bln in March 2006, but the pace of advance in the first three months of 2007 amounted to CYP 52 mln, confirming that they are losing market share to the banks. -- Lending frenzy The lending frenzy in March must have been a record considering that in March 2007 alone, total lending surged by CYP 594 mln compared to February 2007, while in the first three months of the year, total lending is up CYP 830 mln. Compare that to the total Jan-Mar 2006 increase of CYP 342 mln and one realizes the dimension of the lending craze now dominating the country. The fact that most of the new loans are taken to buy property means that while property prices continue to head higher, at least the trade deficit and the rate of inflation have not been adversely affected. Inflation by March 2007 was up 1.8% YoY, while total imports were up only 3.3% in the Jan-March 2007 period with the trade deficit 8% higher, but mostly because of an 11% drop in exports. -- Property bubble? Residential house prices in Cyprus rose by 1.1% over the previous month in April, according to the BuySell Home Price Index, as the index reached 122.44 and brought the average home price in Cyprus to CYP 95,394 (EUR 196,680). Compared with the same month of 2006, prices rose by 9.6% in April, slightly lower than the 9.9% increase recorded in March. “With so much lending geared to the property sector, one would expect a much higher price increase in housing, but it seems that developers are busy off-loading property, reducing their inventory levels,” said a worried analyst, remembering the “crazy” days in 1999/2000 when easy money directed by the banks to the stock market, led to the creation of a bubble, after which equity prices crashed when the Central Bank tightened the flow of money and forced banks to halt such lending. Will the Central Bank take action and start imposing penalties on bank for exceeding lending targets? That is the million pound question since not many people know the views of the newly appointed Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, Athanasios Orphanides. He does have the right credentials, considering that he worked at the Fed and has seen the ups and downs of the property market in the US, its long term impact on the economy and banks in particular. Orphanides is also aware of the sub-prime lending problems haunting the US property market and the economy in general, a problem that can easily be repeated in Cyprus. Alternatively the Central Bank may attempt a soft landing of the economy, by ordering the banks to cut down on lending, or at least enforce the minimum criteria, which since last year stipulates that housing loans should not exceed 70% of the value of the property. ===============
  18. i live in cyprus and have done for over 10 years the reality is very far from your synopsis
  19. ah i am not a dylan fan i'm afraid post that poem, man. it was good.
  20. always wondered how the cyprus market can trust these buysell figures ! i mean, they are an estate agent for f$cks sake ! they always say the same thing: steady rise upwards, buy now before it moves up further. idiots.
  21. not bad i really like your chav ghost poem, its my favourite please post it here again
  22. aaah the food out here is my curse ! fish meze on curium beach with the sunset neo falliron with it's treacherous desert trolley 3 alonia in ayios tychonas and the mesa yitonia taverna, more meze than you can shake a stick at and of course aliada, with all the locals pissed on papioannou red singing around the piano on a friday night bulltrader, cyprus is a small place and something tells me i may have met you. did you live in Limassol ? i know a lot of the financial people here, especially the paribas and credit suisse crowd curious
  23. Fair enough, spoken like a real man.
  24. Limassol Although I grew up in North London, where else
  25. The expat turnover here is VERY high. So many come with dreams of living in the sun, maybe running a bar on the beach or other small business. No intention of learning the language or the culture. They live in highly visible expat enclaves that the locals see as herds of pigs ripe for slaughter, and then complain when they get ripped off. The brits who survive and are happiest here are those who live among the locals, learn the language (even a little bit) and try and understand the mentality.
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.