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Everything posted by lal

  1. haha If we think of this logically - one country shouldn't be the reserve currency of the world - we should have a new world currency that should be the world currency - free from political distortions and printing. Gold used to be it... but i think it needs to be something that speculation can't drive to crazy prices
  2. Its a strange situation we are in, and i am trying to understand - and i hope someone on here can help me do that. If inflation is running at say 4-4.5% and we are having a 2% decline in prices - thats obviously a real (taking into account of inflation) 6.5% fall in prices.... relatively to other products... however if wages aren't rising... which they arent.... that doesn't make homes more affordable... its not really a 6.5% drop... but rather the 2% decline that we see... So shouldn't we see actual prices fall by say 30%-50% totally ignoring inflation because ultimately all that its doing
  3. you forget Van thats not what we have witnessed so far. When property drops and individuals don't get the prices they want/ expect in this inflated market they tend to either take them off the market or wait and see... they have that option whilst interest rates are so low. Until people start loosing their jobs and they are forced to sell/ interest rates go up we won't see drops in prices in any significant way.
  4. why haven't prices dropped like a stone here - like Ireland and the USA??? They have rock bottom interest rates too....
  5. hmm... another above inflation rise... how can next year be better than this if we are seeing prices rise more quickly than inflation... madness. How can unemployment not be higher, how can the Eaton boys not get the blame for this... worrying times... especially if Spain folds in the new year... if Spain goes we are in a depression my friends....
  6. their dad's called Neville Neville... thats all i have to say on the subject... one more thing... they are both ridiculously ugly.... ok one more thing, only a monkey would pay 4 mil for a flat. lol.
  7. i think no one knows what the hell will happen after next year... we will see weak growth next year with Portugal, and possible Spain going under... infact, i could see Sweden, Hungary and Latvia all going under too... but if Spain goes... Europe goes.... and we will in all likelihood enter the next depression. The 14.4% is because its quite a long time... the risk factors over this governments time are huge... heaven forbid you loose your job or something - whatever your using the cash for is likely not to have significant value then (e.g. Car) and your home (if you own one) will be taken b
  8. On wake up to money on fivelive they say this none movement will continue until something moves... in terms of demand and supply... which i am beginning to agree with. People aren't in any rush with rates so low and unless there is a huge swade in job cuts.... say 500k which panics everyone into sales... i just can't see any movement at all lol.
  9. i just tried to compare home loan approval to house prices but couldn't see a clear correlation... maybe there is an inverse relationship between interest rates.... my point being... this doesn't necessarily mean prices will drop.
  10. When the market eventually returns to mean levels... i see that being 150k... maybe even lower depending on if interest rates go up, if the lending criteria actually gets tightened and public sector cuts... and the market becomes cost push... lets see.... but no... lol. not a bargin
  11. here's mine.... its a metophor for recklessness paying off....
  12. 82 billion is not half our deficit.... 975billion is our deficit, 160 odd billion is our structural deficit... the amount we are going further into debt each year... i thought i would make that clarification first. Secondly, the EU won't fail unless a country like Italy or Spain default which is still unlikely. The EU has so much political will behind it from France and Germany that with those two power houses holding it together it will have every chance of survival. I think its stronger than most think....
  13. hmm... thinking aloud here... where is the correlation/ when does the correlation kick in for real prices of houses.... So if mortgage approval is so low... why aren't we seeing this relflected in month to month falls... or is there a delay?!? 18 months maybe?
  14. lets all buy houses and leverage loads of debt... after all we are definitely in a recovery right! lol (i hope you note my sarcasum). Dear me... if anyone thinks these figures are good... they have a screw loose... run up to chrimbo id expect alot of temporary jobs being taken up...
  15. lal


    I watched the video just now... i refuse to call that a documentary. What a load of none sense. They were basically saying inflation would be at 300% by next year on Fox... the sources were all not credible either. Yes the US national debt is unsustainable, yes they are printing money but the pressures on the US not to do anymore QE are huge... look at the uproar around the world about it. Although i agree that the dollar has weakened and all currencies are... i associate stuff like this (and i can't believe i wasted an hour of my life watching it) with people who believe in ghosts or that
  16. hmm... so instead of the 81bn cuts we should have 100bn cuts? I suspect that won't happen just yet... I think that will be left for the next government to tackle.. i.e. Labour/ Conservative government. Its interesting to see what growth figures are like over the next 2 years when we see huge cuts to all the public sector areas. I suspect we will see the big society get a clobbering too...
  17. With rising unemployment wage increases in the real economy will be very weak over the next decade... if inflation does continue to go up (which the trend suggests and if quantitve easing continues) we are all quite literally getting poorer... this is a solution to the problem we are in unfortunately...
  18. lal

    Double Dip

    I completely agree, more and more data i read the more i am convinced of low growth, low interest rates in the medium term... normally that would lead to lower asset prices but right now its now... but thats due to the low interest rates.... i think if we see cuts in employment we might start to see further down grades in asset prices... Gold seems a good bet.
  19. Its not just the lost decade but the lost decades for Japan. You could see the same happening to the west if this asset bubble creating quantitve easing doesnt work.... Japan didn't purge its none performing loans from its balance sheet for years after their financial crisis.... have the west done theres yet?!!??! Its vital i think to the recovery over the medium term atleast.
  20. I am thinking about giving up. How can HP be going up? How can shares be going up when long term interest rates are low... when long term rates are low, its means expectations of weak growth, meaning low wage increases, meaning low increases in aggragate demand... meaning poor long term prospects for the economy... am i the only one seeing this?!!??!?! How can house prices be back to normal when supply restrictions of mortgages - the main way people buy houses in this day and age are as strict as ever... Complete madness.
  21. I read the entire review and found it a interesting read. A different prospective to what i normally get. A couple of things jumped out at me. First debt levels dropping after a financial crisis doesn't have to effect growth significantly was a point i have never read before... Second, to have a sustained period of growth... and not to fall into a deflationary trap/ Japanese style deflationary period the banks need to purge the bad debts from their balance sheets... its happening in the USA for sure.... but is it happening here?
  22. It is interesting to see. I think its a very clear early sign of fear thats for sure. I keep hearing this supply issue problem causing prices to go up in the short and longer term... however the market would have factored that into the bubble. Thats why prices in the UK rose higher and quicker than in the USA or other major economies. We need to see inflation from QE2 which will cause interest rates to rise... which will cause the repossession rate to rise which will cause Fear mark 2. Hopefully Fear mark 1 will start properly in 2011 and we can move on from this financial crisis... because
  23. maybe as people get more desperate they will have to reduce their prices further. I live in the north - but i am puzzled why prices haven't dropped further.... quicker....
  24. I have been thinking about this quite alot lately, i think we have had 19 months of 0.5% BOE interest rates that have allowed the property bubble and asset bubbles to continue to be protected.... and explode as people put money in risky assets that they hope to get a return on. I have read a number of articles, and its quite obvious - that growth next year won't be as strong as this... due to the auterity package for the first year... coupled with low growth in the private sector. I must admit, i think we may even drop into negative growth for a quarter... i assume the BoE will start quantitiv
  25. How important is inflation to this government? - i think its an important question to ask and something the media haven't really picked up on. Does Osborne know what inflation and its affects are? I ask this because i am sure Mervin King will be pressured by Osborne... in determining what is important... economic growth or inflation. Personally for long term sustainability, i believe controlling inflation has to be key.... All i see is cuts cuts cuts...
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