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House Price Crash Forum

John The Pessimist

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Everything posted by John The Pessimist

  1. "Falling house prices imply falling interest rates and therefore lower cost of ownership"?? Surely that's a bit of an assumption. Aren't we all expecting a fall in house prices as a result of increasing interest rates? House prices are a relatively small factor in the cost of ownership, compared to the prevailing price of debt.
  2. "Well thats anecdotal." What exactly does that mean? I also supplied the linky to the bloody job, which is current on jobs.ac.uk. There's plenty more just like it on the same site. There may be the occasional well paid gig out there, but most are paying peanuts, and we wonder why we are getting monkeys........ Even Ireland pays it's scientists more than the UK.
  3. http://www.jobs.ac.uk/job/ABN972/research-technician/ Research Technician 27,700 including London allowance. Honours degree, previous experience etc required, only a 3 year contact on offer, no security of tenure, and I can guarantee that the job will be oversubscribed. After tax, and commuting costs (you won't live near UCL on that money), there will only be chump change left. BTW most BScs are 4 years in duration, so there will be debt to be paid off also.
  4. And there you have the root of the problem. How many FTSE 100 companies are headed by a scientist or an engineer? The majority are lead by accountants or sales/marketing types. Your brightest and best engineers and scientists either go on to do an MBA, or go into the city and play with algorithms for the finance houses because that is where the money is. The missus and I are both trained scientists. She is in research, I went into management, and I earn 4 times her salary. If you want a manufacturing industry, you need to be prepared to pay the professionals required a realistic professional salary. The Austin Allegro is the prime example of what happens when the profession of engineering is left to the mediocrities.
  5. In Ireland everyone laughed when Bertie Ahern said he was a socialist (as he cut taxes and privatised semi state companies). Now, as a result of his policies, the banks are effectively nationalised, and they are running businesses as zombie holdings. Maybe he was a socialist, and maybe Ireland is 12 months further along the austerity program than the UK?
  6. What exactly is a "fake job"? Are all these people trying to get rich by selling ringtones to each other in fake jobs? Does the same apply to diversity officers and lecturers in media studies? How do you conclude that there are more "fake jobs" in the private sector?
  7. It'll take an awful lot of part-time engineers and administrators to achieve savings of 25% across the board. Somebody will feel the pain somewhere before this is all over. Likewise, if they increase taxes, the pain will be felt somewhere. Will they tax employment? Hardly with 2.5m out of work. Will they tax spending? That's bound to be counter-productive....
  8. Actually my name is Nick, and Vince is doing the typing..............
  9. That will work as long as it is the "right" people leaving in the right mix. If all your GPs retire/emigrate to Australia you'll be left with an NHS run by practice managers and hospital administrators...............wouldn't fancy one of them taking out my appendix. Hard decisions will still need to be made.
  10. This presupposes that there will be inflation. There's a strong school of though on this website that there may be deflation over the next few years..........
  11. Public sector? State? Private Pension Funds? Westminster pensions? Please elaborate..........
  12. What is "essential" is a matter of perspective. As a parent with young children, I deem education as essential. Defence doesn't worry me, but it is close to the heart of your average Daily Mail/Express/insert your paper of choice reader. For an older person whose children are grown, education is less important, whereas health is critical. What services are politically acceptable to go after?
  13. I'm sorry folks, but this is a non-story. It's the start of September so 95% of the Northern hemisphere's grain has been harvested. Quality of the harvest is the only remaining variable that will affect supply. Famine is rarely a function of food supply, it is usually a function of food price which is driven up by hoarding/stockpiling. In each of the last 4 Summers there has been scares over grain supplies. 2 years ago the plains of the American mid-west had flooded, and there was a scare. Last year, the scare was in China. This year it's the Caucasus has a drought. The reality is that the developing world is getting richer, and they are gaining an taste for the western (grain rich) diet. Hence the price of grain based products (which includes meat and poultry) are being driven up.
  14. I was looking for something more specific. Which benefits and services will be deemed "surplus" and what will undergo efficiencies?
  15. The condems have committed to a major assault on the deficit. If they are to be taken seriously, there will have to be tangible cuts announced in the next 3 months. Where & when do you think these cuts will fall?
  16. Sit tight until the New Year. The fall in house prices is only beginning to pick up momentum. You'll still be in the house by next Summer, but you will have saved yourself a ball of money.
  17. YUP!!! The UK is not at serious risk of default like Greece or Portugal. The UK is merely in serious s***e and up to its eyeballs in debt like Ireland and Iceland. (Great company to be in.................. )
  18. The real killer is the so-called "Zombie Hotels". These have been taken over by the banks, they're being run at cut price rates to service the interest, and they are driving the viable hotels out of business. So the government owns the banks, and the banks are running businesses. Maybe Bertie Ahern was right when he said he was a socialist, because his legacy is to leave half the businesses in the country directly or indirectly nationalised.
  19. Anglo was a relatively minor property bank of no systemic importance. It should never have been included in the guarantee :angry: . I still can't understand why there aren't mobs in the streets over this bailout. It's one of the reasons I'm leaving the place........ BTW it works out as €4800 per worker
  20. Going slightly off topic, a lot of posters on the Irish boards are discussing coming to the UK to go through bankruptcy. In Ireland it can take 20 years to come out of bankruptcy, whereas in NI and the UK it can be done in 12 months. So you think you've got it bad over there..........
  21. Very interesting comment piece by Paul Mason. The scary bit is the parallel he drew with the Great Depression with the fiscal austerity measures making things worse. In 1927 (read 2008) there was a mini crash in the markets and "organised support" from the banks (read stimulus) stabilised things. Then the bottom fell out of everything in 1929. We are now seeing austerity measures being implemented in the Western economies......... does that mean 2011 could be 1929 all over again?
  22. I'm moving to the UK from Ireland in October. It's a senior management role in the food industry. Supposedly there are 204 applicants for every vacancy in the UK food industry, but they had to offer me a vulgar package to fill the role In my current gig I'm recruiting at a site in Scotland for a production manager and in Bristol for an engineer. The calibre of the CVs coming into me are woeful. I know that there are genuine misfortunates out there, but at the risk of serious flaming, a lot of companies have used the current crisis to offload their dead wood.
  23. Nope. Genuine newbie. Moving over to Greater London from the fiasco in the Irish property market/economy. Working out notice period, so killing time on the web....... Bought in Dublin at the start of '05, and gonna be paying for it for a long time. Determined not to get caught again so learning as much about UK scene as possible. That ok with you or do I need to give my birth cert also?
  24. "Secondly, there are forecasts from estate agents' own research departments. These are almost unanimous in ruling out a crash, but expect gentle falls this autumn and in 2011." Look at any comment piece on property from the Irish media in 2006-2007. Everything was about a "soft landing" for the property market and the fundamentals are sound etc. EA's research departments are not going to be putting out reports saying 1 in 3 EAs will be out of work in 12 months time.
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