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Everything posted by vinny

  1. Quite often posh = overconfident. "I am better than others" / "It won't go wrong for ME" / " Why should I listen to XYZ, because I'm more clever than them"
  2. If you stay invested in any one asset class or market during your lifetime you are probably playing a zero sum game. By using cycles and trends - being flexable to see opportunity and risk - you can shift stratergy to stay ahead of the crowd.
  3. I think you misunderstood? A cabinet reshuffle / a change in voting will not cause anything. Rather these changes are reflecting a changing social mood. It is this mood that will affect the markets, not who is in charge. Whoever is in "charge" during good times is usually depicted in a competant way. Not just fiscally competant but in other areas as well. The inverse also being true. A shift in confidence in government is a symptom of a shift in the confidence in the economy. Overall it is a shift in self confidence that individuals think they will prosper. The decline in willingness to borrow and lend has begun IMHO.
  4. Well done to Tony Blair AND the electorate - They have both called the top in real estate and, probably, the stock market. There has been a shift in people's psychology - Unhappy voters have turned on Labour, their pessimism will turn HPI negative. Understand, that people's thinking and perceptions - their outlook - moves markets - fundamentals can put in an absolute top and bottom - but that's all that fundamental analysis will tell you. 2 parallels??? (I believe these dates will mean things to those who follow cycles). Last major cabinet reshuffle - 1989. Different government - same call. A reshuffle made from FEAR. Some councils changing hands for the first time since 1971.
  5. I tried to buy shares before the market rallied that day and was unsuccessful. I did get though by phone and was told I could not buy because there was a "security" issue with my account - I'd have to sent ID to trade!!!!! I've posted elsewhere hinting of my preference for holding bullion directly - perhaps it's at least an idea to have part of your portfollio in your own hands.
  6. Proven to be correct beyond doubt. Doc, do you see a point, in the future,where it will be worth holding bullion itself? What, if anything, would convince you to do so? FWIW, I'm at the point in my little doom and gloom mind where I'd rather hold the yellow stuff in my sweaty palms. I'm even staying out of the allocated account route - as it may boil down to someone else's promise to pay you your gold. (paranoid perhaps but there you have it).
  7. No, I NEVER short anything. I do not like the use of any derivative instrument, save for going long on a CFD or the use of in the money puts. Others may remember some of my posts saying as much??? Let me be clear on gold. I think it is overbought and is due a correction. I think that is what will probably happen. I do not like it when charts go vertical - I would certainly not be looking to add to my gold pile at the moment. I also see a "j" shape in the chart at the moment, classical "not time to buy" sign with any commodity. I feel "safer" though for holding bullion as insurance against many scenarios I see having a high possibility of playing out. Another point if I may? I can see gold taking out $700 with ease in the very near future - although it may not have moved much in GBP - (short term perhaps a fair way go go against $). There's a time and place for everything, adding to your own gold holding is, IMO, not the thing to do at THIS moment.
  8. Good post DD. Risk taking of these proportions is not admirable. It's best to let go rather than hold on tight.
  9. "Gold is screaming danger" Probably - But it's screaming "overbought" at the moment.
  10. I have no idea where gold is going - though on occasion I hazard a (private) guess. I hold some bullion grade - in my hands - as insurance - NOT an investment per se. COMPARED to other assets gold is RELATIVELY cheap, though given my general outlook towards other assets that does not say much.
  11. Thanks Durch. Goodness - It's been almost a year since you posted this originally! No wonder I could not remember the content!!!! Keeps my faith in the debt free, gold holding, mainly liquid position I have taken. For those who have a go at Dr Bubb - his quote from the same thread: "Meantime, it has risen by only 15% in Dollars ($438 to $505). If the dollar peaks now (at year end), will we see a 30%+ move in Dollar Gold in 2006? $650 Gold in 2006 is not impossible, gentlemen and ladies., particularly if the Dollar falls."
  12. Durch, I'm sure you posted long ago about your experience of bank runs - I can't remember what you said. If I have not got this wrong - could you re -tell your tale ( with a bit of background)here please?
  13. Is there a high probability of a run on banks? I'm not sure. Look at the risk v.s reward for holding money in a bank though. 0 to 5%(tops) interest per annum secured against bonds, stocks and real estate (let's not complicate things by going into derivatives). If banks were to pay the correct premium via interest for the risks they take then I'd consider leaving my money in a bank. There are of course, drawbacks to holding cash outside of a bank, I would not put a large percentage of banknotes "under my mattress" - though I suggest that at people have at least some cash on hand. There are other places to put your money - I have suggested some here. BTB - If you want to leave your money in a bank - fine - be their guest.
  14. There are two definitions of inflation. An increase in prices, or an increase in the money supply. An increase in the money supply will drive an increase in prices. Sorry to disagree (again) but there is only one definition of inflation for me - increased money supply - either by printing or by credit expansion. could go on and on, but ultimately it comes down to the fact that our global fiat system, with a reserve currency backed by oil sales. This is why the united states has been able to export inflation all over the world for the last 50 years and be the envy of the world for living standards. When I see numbers like billions, and trillions floating around it scares me, especially seeing as these trends are accelerating. There is something seriously ******ed up going on. Holy cow batman - we agree on something!!!!! 75/650 = 0.115 40/800 = 0.05 That is a comparison between the all-time highs reached in 1980 vs 2006. Oil is more expensive now measured in gold than ever before. Let me be ultra clear - "The oil / gold ratio would mean oil is falling at the moment." I mean at the MOMENT / RECENTLY - gold is whacking oil. You are right IMO about the longer term relationship though. Either gold is undervalued vs oil, or oil is too expensive. I think the long run average is 17 bbls / Oz? Gasoline will become more expensive in dollars, and actually cheaper in Yuan theoretically. Assuming the world fiat system doesn't descend into complete chaos. More expensive gasoline = inflation. The new fed chief says he's going to print money to inflate the economy out of trouble, how does that work? I'm not sure if the oil bull is over FWIW. Once power is gained people act differently before they had power. Benanke may not keep helecopter promises. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ BTW Dr - please do not take my arguments amiss - I appreciate, althougth disagree often, with your take on things. Good debate, whoever is "right" . Much needed on here of late.
  15. The thing that complicates all this is the interplay between the price of oil and the value of a dollar. The price of oil is a driver of inflation in practically everything we consume. The price of oil is a symptom of inflation. The money supply has expanded - mainly through credit - and affected commodity prices. A high oil price is, if anything, a deflationary force. The price of oil would (and is) going up anyway, even if we had an honest gold backed currency. Simply because there is going to be declining amounts of oil available. Whilst demand continues to grow exponentially. The oil / gold ratio would mean oil is falling at the moment. I'm not convinced by peak oil theories (though I do not dismiss them lightly). The increasing demand of oil is projected to drop off in some quarters. I.e demand to grow at lesser rate. In my opinion interest rates won't be able to rise fast enough to suppress inflation. Failed ERM entry ring any bells?
  16. To fix or not to fix, that is the question - and a tough one for home loan borrowers to answer, now that the base rate has remained on hold at 4.5 per cent for the past eight months. IF I were to take out a mortgage I would try for a capped rate mortgage!!!!! Portman building society is the latest lender to withdraw its two-year table-topping fixed rate deal at 4.3 per cent. It has replaced this with a deal at 4.49 per cent. Halifax has also recently nudged its two-year remortgage fix up from 4.49 per cent to 4.56 per cent, while Chelsea building society has increased its two-year rate by 0.2 per cent to 4.69 per cent. Not big nominal moves on rates - but as a percentage of a percentage - significant IMO.
  17. That is what is so disturbing. How far will they go to defend it. Who knows how far they have gone, are going, or will go?? It's a fiat currency that is intrinsically worthless, you can't buck the market forever. I agree that you can't buck the market forever - some day every fiat currency will collapse - like every fiat currency before it. AND every gold backed/ silver backed / tally stick currency will be relaced by a new form of fiat. And so on and so forth. Agreed. Which is why I say that I don't really know what's going to happen when the dollar does eventually go down the plughole. I've made predictions before, but there isn't really any text book that has a theory that can predict what is going to happen in the near future, the situation is quite simply historically unprecedented. No it's not quite unprecedented - trust me, the human race has been here before. Elliot wave theory - some long wave analysts - predict deflation just around the corner. Just as EWT predicted huge inflation 1970's, and inflation in the 1980's etc. I'm not sure what you mean. Put in it's simplest form (and I mean simple) my theory is that there will be a panic into cash when asset prices implode / debt bubble implodes. There are practical problems to central banks printing money (especially at the required rate) to avoid deflation at this juncture.
  18. I did'nt know that about Henry VIII!!!!!!! Thanks for that BB. The rest of what you are saying makes sense (IMO FWIW). I CAN see how we might see hyperinflation / collapse of fiat - but I don't think thats what will happen BTW.
  19. Guns Of course. Gold would, at some point, make: 1 Printing difficult 2 Taxation harder - would be seen as the theft it is. 3 Papering up of economic cracks (or grand canyons) more difficult. 4 savings worthwhile (Banks derive their power though encouraging borrowing - sometimes they gat this wrong though - 1929 for instance). etc.
  20. longer. The ability of the US military to wage endless war, spending endless amounts of money is dependent on the petrodollar. Yep, that's why the Fed will do ANYTHING to protect it (they may get it wrong though). China could destroy the petrodollar whenever it likes. And at some point in the future it will. But it would risk destroying itself. I'm not sure where this is going, but the fiat money systems are collapsing. And the elite is making an all-or-nothing attempt to control the worlds most valuable resources before someone else does. Which is oil, and gold probably. Hows about the most valuable resource being paper that can be printed and then exchanged at will for anything you care to mention. Now THAT would be valuable - very valuable indeed!!!! I don't work in the city. But Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist, has been privately quoted saying that "economic armageddon is imminent". I've studied a-level economics and I've had concerns about why china is pegging its currency artificially low for many years now. The fundamentals are all in place for a currency crash of unprecedented proportions. The fundamentals are in place, though it may not happen, for a bull market in paper.
  21. I think you know I agree there is a good possibility that you are right . (ETF).
  22. Sure. I mean your money should perhaps be held in a depository, safe, under your matress, or in cash equivalents. For cash equivalents I mean fixed price Government bonds / treasury notes. (Although there is risk in these instruments). ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I think you should to understand why I don't think you should be holding cash in a bank or society. In short, could I suggest you research the following?: *Fractional reserve banking. *Carry trade. *1929 depression. *The current debt bubble. * The legal right you have (or in actuality don't have) to your deposit(s) in banks. I wonder if the banks can remain solvent in the coming years. An extream view - perhaps, but at the interest rates they pay (Gov bonds can beat them in most cases) it's not worth the risk. It is YOUR money they are lending to people to buy overpriced houses (and other overpriced assets), conservatories, speedboats, flash cars, and chav jewelery etc. If we suffer a massive downturn (hint), what do you think they will be able to pay you back?
  23. May very well turn out to be good tactics Chuz. Best of luck.
  24. Perhaps they do give a damn. There are a "lot of balls in the air" and Benanke is the juggler. They are damned if they do, and damned if they don't.
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