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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by vinny

  1. If we have inflation looming, why is'nt the stockmarket rocketing???????
  2. Only either massive protectionism or a MASSIVE levelling of global wages, living standards and taxation. ANYTHING can happen. Your outlook looks the most probable IMO.
  3. I plain don't know about peak oil timing, but.......... There are many "new" sources of oil comming on line: Use of condensate in distiller feed. Stranded gas plants. (I'm know a collegue trying to wangle a job on one new (completed) project). Various hydrocracking processes. Exploration advances etc.
  4. I live in Ellesmere Port (sadly). House prices are not "typically" that high. 150K is about the median. Vauxhall took on about 1000 new workers (including 3 of my mates - one my ex next door neighbour) a few years back. Mostly the workforce has aged - I'd guess at the typical "on the line" worker would be about 40 -50. I talked one of my mates out of buying his landlord's BTL about 6 months ago. (NO 5H1T). Where are you from? Yeah, It's easier to shut things down if you are a shite manager, rather than turn them around.
  5. If I may refer you back to the fact that silver is mainly (now) an industrial metal? (ok this is different but.....) Would dumping 100 million ounces of copper affect that market? I am not sure it would.
  6. I'm not sure. IF he did, he MAY be fearing a downturn in the SM as well as silver. Oddly (to most metals bulls) silver is roughly correlated with the SM. (Industrial use rather than "money" use). Perhaps I'm second guessing him too much? His insistance on being long in stocks, defensive or otherwise, MAY be a mistake.
  7. Research some of W.B's moves. He got COMPLETELY OUT of the stockmarket for the 70's.(if I recall). He is no perma stock bull. He follows "mega trends".
  8. Doc, can you be clearer please? What are you seeing? Are you saying that without the factors, as you mention, gold would pull back - but now you don't expect a significant drop / consolidation? Up - up - and away? Using Technical Analysis to chase intermediate tops/bottoms is doomed to fail in this market. Volatility is on the rise and explosive price moves are becoming more likely. The correct strategy remains accumulation. Hold on to your position for much higher prices and welcome any pullbacks or price weakness as an opportunity to add to it. Do you know - I agree with this in many ways. Gold is a rascal to predict / trade. Admission from me : I tried to trade gold, the only reason I made money was because I was dealing with a bull. I was wrong many times but still made money. Overconfidence on my part. As a side point property bulls are different from me - as I realise my many limitations - I appreciate WHY I have made money (when I have done so). Realising you have made a mistake - Humility and honesty with yourself - are the most valuable commodities in investing.
  9. This is exactly what I mean about spotting the big trends and switching from past winner to near-to-be winner. Those who staying in real estate - a past winner - will regret it.
  10. You are right - I'm changing my handle to.............................................Kissmygold.
  11. Spline, I think you misunderstand what I am saying????? I did not explain very well!!! The chart here shows a trend change - as close to a break out from a "tunnel" - as a tech may see (with this kind of data). This will be IMHO a leading indicator of the near term "clean" / non lagging data as it comes through. Arrears to lead to negative HPI. Just as charts of the the real estate stocks may provide a clue to where we are going. I may be wrong. Top work from your goodself (again) if I may say so?
  12. Starting a business at this juncture is probably financial suicide. I can't get my thinking away from there being a massive turndown in demand for goods and services in the very near future. Sure, some businesses can go counter trend, but which ones will they be - and to what extent can they prosper? None in all probability. I think the only way - at least I have seen - we differ is your view on gold. I think you must consider 3 possibilities with gold, if I may say so? 1/ Perhaps we will see a printing press "overdrive"? 2/ Perhaps gold will be seen as real money rather than an asset? 3/ Perhaps, considering previous cycles - The current gold run - IF it is a true bull - is too short to end here. I think I remeber Jim Rodgers saying that the shortest commodity bull market was 15 years. If true to form, gold has a lot longer to run and alot higher to go. I can't dismiss this view lightly!!!!! Any thoughts Jonpo?
  13. Yeah. They WERE. BTW Jonpo, am I right in thinking we are the only two "deflationists" (is that at term)? on HPC?
  14. Without doing the calc's I'd guess if a bank was to lend a "man in the street" a 125% interest only finance package to be invested in the SM during a bull run - then he would beat the pants off someone buying a home at any time. But The stockmarket is risky where as real estate is safe - apparently - so no money for the man in the street here then!!!!!!!
  15. Who knows mate, Gold and Oil have the potential to make the best look like a monkey. Perhaps(given that I'm far from the best) it was brave or foolish of me to make a short run prediction!!!! Be careful will being too bullish on oil - things are not always what they seem. At $15 bbl few were talking about peak oil. With $80 in sight every trader "knows" about peak oil. NO MORE predictions from me - BUT is this a classic sign that we are around the top?
  16. No problem Sledge. In general response to other reactions I've had: You don't have to trade every 5 seconds or be that smart to make money. You have, though, to see the bigger trends and back them. Example: Buy gold 1970 sell 1980. Buy real estate 1980 sell 1990. Buy stocks 1990 sell 2000. ALL of these positions made money EVENTUALLY for investors - No positions here pick the bottom or top of the market. (Some would say poor timing - but hey THIS would work). Pretty much your point about bull markets Sledge!!!!! (Yep and it can be tricky picking them - in hindsight all no brainers). ARE ALL ASSETS THE SAME? - Pretty much, it's timing that's the key, imagine going the other way and selling/buying the above at the wrong time!!!!! There is that much debt in the system, supporting all these assets at the moment that I think it is time to take a cash position. I'm pretty bullish on cash at the moment. The only asset that MAY go counter cyclical to a downturn is PERHAPS gold. It's a pretty good hedge against my current position / outlook. EDIT ( had another thought) : unless you are "good" - ie Dr Bubb level - leverage is a negative sum game - even in some cases if you are "right". Real estate has tricked many into thinking they are "good" - and not just in this cycle!!!!!
  17. "Instead of arguing the toss on when th enext K winter will occur, you might better spend your time telling TTRTRs his view of permabullity may be as illusory as any other asset class investment" He will not listen, he will reap the "rewards" for doing so. So be it. "K" waves are not of fixed duration BTW. I may be better pointing out to those who will listen that IMO there are times to be in one asset class, or another, or in cash. I WILL NOT disagree with anyone who I think is correct because I don't agree with ALL their arguments.
  18. Sledge. Are you including stocks which have collapsed, no longer visable, on long term charts /tables / calculations ????? Invest in the stock market* OVER a lifetime, you will probably hit a Kontratieff winter and lose. *Or stay in any market. There's a time and place for everything.
  19. Cheers, cleared that one up then!!!!!! What's the third official language then?
  20. Yep, but the last crash was 1989 was it not? Arrears, according to your graph, did not start before the crash last time around. (if I've got this right)???? Meaning? : a/ The current situation is worse - MORE downside - bigger crash ahead. b/ The crash is ALREADY underway - lagging indicators an' all that!!!!
  21. I don't think so somehow AF. Risk is a strange thing to define when trading (and I make a distinction here from investing). I'd guess that Dr Bubb has, what we would call, large sums to play with on a daily basis. Even the likes of myself (though not at the mo) punts a fair whack. (IF I'm as sure as I can be about something).
  22. Interesting article. One error perhaps????:(Is English the official Irish language)? "But the survey, carried out for the European Commission, showed that few (13%) Irish even attempted to read anything in a foreign language in the past year, compared to 91% of the Luxembourgers" Either way, English is still a foreign language in my book.
  23. First time I'd heard this one. Good phrase, so true.
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