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Everything posted by vinny

  1. Fine in theory - a little different in practice. Unfortunatly there are those who have literally bet the house on inflation. Asset deflation would not, at least short term, increase the standard of living for the masses. Many would be financially wiped out, especially those in leveraged positions, if we go into the deflationary period I expect is most likely at this point. Deflation is very much a two way street in goods and services. Fine IF the good or service your "job" involves holds up against other things deflating. At best a zero sum game if your earnings deflate along with everything else. (The SAME as applies with inflation applies with deflation if you think about it). Deflation is an enemy, though, to banks and governments. Not bad in that respect then.
  2. I think you miss the point? (Although I'm not 100% sure). They MAY have to buy at these high prices to deliver at lower prices later. Short term ramp (FAR beyond fundamentals) leading to a massive slump and continued losses futher down the line. Or have I got this wrong???
  3. This is what I thought - How utterly wrong I was - gold up to $720.
  4. Ha - Me too. Whatever - I may at some point jump on the bandwagon. My current (small) holding is insurance rather than a play to make money. I don't think I'd ever willingly part with the small pile I have now - It's there "in case". If gold goes to 10c a tonne - I'll still be holding.
  5. I do worry when the mainstream are reporting on anything I'm holding. Perhaps I should be optimistic that the cheap gold I have got has a long way to go?
  6. I guess at .25 up. Gold and stock bulls may be dissapointed to hear!!!!! Watch for some excitment either way in the markets.
  7. I stand by what I have said. I could best describe ANY of my investment calls as being a call on high probability rather than absolute certainty of what may happen. I get many things wrong. My recent gold call would be in good and numbered company if we go on much futher from here. Gold MAY not pull back at this stage. BUT I think it probably will. If I am wrong, so be it.
  8. Perhaps. Be careful also, of any potential political risk to your investments. I guess you have made up your mind. Best of luck.
  9. Good post TTRTT - I'm wary of your motives. I see we agree on something else then TTRTT. We will have to stop meeting like this.
  10. A significant trend. It is IMO a mistake. I know loads of people doing this. For your intents and purposes - foreign property is an overpriced extention of Uk overpriced property. Much of the upward move (in some areas) has been due to those doing what you are doing. Please be careful, even if you are right and I am wrong.
  11. They are fixed price. (Cash equivalent UK government bonds - buying gold with the proceeds).
  12. I think TTRTT is expecting the BOE to lower rates to protect the "economy". As the Fed/BOE tried in 2001/2, IMO, to protect asset prices / economy. Fine in theory, but we have already tried that. We would "import" a ruck of inflation and the BOE (at face level) only has ONE target - 2% "inflation". It HAS to raise rates to meet this target, the market has already decided as much looking at bond yields. TTRTT time to wave goodbye to your remaining equity. It's time for you to pay my "boring" bond yields with your "profits".
  13. Those expectations are, IMO, wrong. But you are right, the expectation of a sound economy and rising asset prices (read houses) / belief in seriously flawed inflationary measures are propping the pound. Once ANY of these illusions are revealed then it's time to raise the rates. Well done TTRTT - You have answered your own question. You need to get out of your leveraged property position whilst you still can.
  14. cgnao. There have been at least minor setbacks along the way from 555 - 700. That is all I am saying. We MAY be due a bigger fall and consolidation before, as I expect, we move much higher. I think you are right that holding SOME gold. I think at least 10 - 20%% of a portfolio is advisable at this point.
  15. Just the opposite MAY be the path we travel. The BOE may be forced to protect the pound. Who said the economy is not cruell. It may be time to raise the rates.
  16. This is what I have been saying. There is a time and place for every thing. It is risky to add to your gold position at THIS juncture. The 100% bullishness on other threads makes me think I may be right.
  17. You are right, in a way, DB. Do those who heap scorn on my "I WOULD NOT LEAVE MONEY IN THE BANK" call now see what I am saying?
  18. Megaflop - can you IMAGINE for a second what would happen if deflation kicked in? People's debt INCREASING with respect to their salaries? Surely defaults would he HIGHER in the long run and there'd be plenty of suicides in the mean time... I'm sure an inflationary escape is what is planned. As everyone keeps saying, the genie is out of the bottle. Money supply has already been hugely inflated and to sustain it, they have to keep going. I'm not saying it will necessarily be hyper inflation. In theory, interest rates have to be greater than inflation to keep the cost of borroeing positive - so if you're a cash saver you may be treated fairly - who knows. If there were 5 years of 10% interest rates and house prices stayed still, I'd be happy with that - but we ain't gonna get it... Exactly - you need gold AND cash to be sure of protecting yourself. Buy gold by all means BUT 100% portfolios may be a mistake. The markets / PEOPLE will decide the route we go. It may appear that governments make desicions - oft the opposite is true. BTW - The 100% bullishness here may mark a point at which gold pulls back. Either way I feel comfortable with my position, I intend to add to my cash / government fixed price bond / gold holdings. ONE part of my portfolio WILL get wiped - the other will soar to compensate.
  19. Just to point out that just about all other metals have done better than gold (copper/ aluminium/ lead) Absolutely right, though I wonder if this can continue. May point to how undervalued gold is in COMPARISON to other assets, including metals. Not sure about silver, but I would guess so. Gold "just" has the speculation, whereas copper et al have the same speculation, plus increased demand from China. I've heard that China are adding (central banks) to their gold reserves. Yes, I think many stocks look fully valued at present too. But already own fair amount of utility stocks... Someone tried to sell me a ME fund recently. Interesting idea (all that oil cash) but the huge rise has already been and gone, the PE is scary and the companies look shoddy. Looking for "shovel sellers" any ideas? (I like Noble Group in Singapore, publicly traded commodity brokers, their trading volume must be thru the roof with all the speculators) LVMH? (newly rich tend to buy brands) Good luck with these. Though I think the stock market will "correct" shortly. It sounds arrogant, but near term at least, I feel WB may well be making a mistake.
  20. So do I, but I'm not confident in this conviction. That's why I have a little gold pile. I hope you are also right, no matter which way we go, about ample warning. No one rings a bell at the top or bottom of the market. Governments have a poor track record of protecting anyone from anything.
  21. Expectation / emotion to move markets???? W.B unloads INTO a bull market - probably does not "trumpet" the fact. ETF was EXPECTED to add to bull - much publicity beforehand affects market??? Who knows anything????
  22. I wish it was clear. Hyperinflation is not the done deal some here think IMO.
  23. Might have to join you in the sand pit then. In some ways this would be a relief. That's just 5 mins from where I am. Is your Dad on the line? I do worry about what skills these lads have if they were to become redundant too. The problem with jobs like these is if you lose them, especially late in life, you can be pretty screwed.
  24. You are forgetting the last big industry in the area. I just hope they keep making petrol in the area!! or
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