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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by vinny

  1. This can happen. Though we may have to try to make sure we have cause v.s effect the correct way around. This is why, though, I have advocated fixed price Gov't bonds to be included in portfolios for 2006.
  2. Sledge - There are many times when a change in sentiment to risk has shown up first in falling stock markets, and then been obvious with real estate falls. (the "lagging nature of data and sentiment have been done to death here before). There have indeed been times when falls in the indices have been lagged by the housing market. With that in mind I take the recent SM action as being, in all probability, bearish for house prices. The relationship with bonds is more interesting IMO. Indeed the last big SM "correction" would perhaps lead some to say that bonds and stocks are counter cyclical. Indeed this is accepted as common wisdom - and was taken as so before the last SM downturn. In a big downturn I expect bonds to follow stocks down in reaction to risk adversion / credit tightening / defaults etc. This was certainly observed during the 1929 crash although this fact seems to have been lost in the sands of time for many. Therefore I'd conclude that the inverse (stock /bond)relationship CAN hold true - but it is not an absolute principle.
  3. Some "investor types" were actually advocating not buying gold a few weeks ago (at $720 ish). Some - Myself, DrBubb and Avidfan(I think) were looking for a pullback which is now in evidence. I don't think I've ever seen DrBubb recommending buying gold directly BTW. We MAY have seen the top in gold, but I doubt it.
  4. I use fib ratio's often - I am learning quick - it is easy to be misled at times!!!!! Some other thoughts: +I'm not sure we have even seen the first wave down in the FTSE completed yet. (EWT). + MACD for many stocks I "follow" indicating no turning point yet ( "normal" /ADVFN default MACD settings - I have do not often use fib numbers, although I believe they can be more useful at times). + I think the fall is being driven by a realisation of risk / change in sentiment. There are catalysts in this process, but they get to much "direct blame" IMO. + Has anyone noticed that there is a lack of panic on the likes of Bloomberg? There is still lots of optimism at these levels. I'm thinking that many may be on a slope of hope. (or am I getting too bearish in my old age)?
  5. I'm tempted to agree with your reply. Time that is spent on emotional well being, family life and community is oft neglected with predictable results. Sadly not everyone can find a balance in life. I also agree that not everyone, for whatever reason, is suited to investing or more often trading. I do think, though, that everyone can learn and improve themselves. Everyone in some way WILL be affected by various economic cycles. An above par understanding can help people from making mistakes and actually keeping OUT of a particular market (or timing, say, a buisiness start up better). For instance how many who are reasonably bright - but have NO understanding of the housing cycle in this country - have managed to mortgage themselve to the hilt of late? They may well have more time in the open air with their family in the coming years!!!! That is the sad thing. Borrowing = advanced spending = deferred spending = eventual economic contraction = HPC.
  6. In a way I agree with this. But....................... Overall SENTIMENT has changed. THAT is what markets are all about. Potential IR hikes are being talked about. How many ( I'm thinking of US here) have we had with "no effect". Ask yourself why hurricanes, Iran, Iraq and London bombings etc were ignored (certainly not reflected) during the SM / Housing market bull run. Compare these factors with a potential 0.25% hike - no comparison is there?
  7. Cheers BM............... I thought the same of myself as well !!!!!!
  8. And that is (partly) why a 100% gold portfolio is reckless.
  9. From the thread there: "It's one thing having constructive discussion about a predicted crash but quite another rubbing their hands in glee and taking great pleasure in wishing financial harm on others" Sadly that, in my view, goes on to much here. (exception: TTRTR who deserves everything he gets / is as guilty of rubbing his hands with glee as anyone else).
  10. Some advice, and some background, if I may? Invest your time reading books and websites like this. Try to learn how to invest and perhaps trade. Try (I know it may be hard at first to see opportunities) to take (legally) advantage of your,or any, situation. This will indeed take lots of time - I would not jump in with a large % sum in any "market" at the moment FWIW. You might want to study, observe and practice for a year or so say. I hope that does not sound pompous? A bit of backgound: I lost my home and practically all my other assets in a "court of law" 3 years ago. (left with 12K of stock + pension and 5K debt due to legal costs). My income is about (after tax /NI / Child maintainence) 12K per annum. Through investing /trading I could now easily afford a home of my own if I wished. It CAN be done.
  11. I don't know about ways around this. I know that saving (I think you mean in a bank account?) CAN be right at certain times. My point? HOW MORALLY WRONG IS A "SYSTEM"* WHICH CAUSES SOMEONE TO ASK THIS QUESTION? (scruffian - I am not having a direct pop at you.) *Fiat currency, benefit/taxation, spectulative markets etc, etc, etc.
  12. I agree with the potential purchasing power.That is why for the "man in the street" no more than, say, 20 oz in coins and small investment bars will be required to "protect yourself". IMO any holding over this sort of level should be considered as a "punt" - backing a gold bull - NOT a fiat collapse. Although, of course, in the event of a collapse those backing a gold bull will profit more than they may have imagined!!!!! You did have company in your questioning. It would indeed be nice to see him back. A difference in views should not mean we can not discuss them.
  13. Stock market action, at any time, is a measure of social mood. The lack of confidence CAUSED the drop - the reverse of your supposition - the drop will cause loss of confidence. Declines in real estate tend to follow stock market corrections BTW. The fear of inflation may well have influenced the "mood". Interestingly (to some?) the higher inflation goes - the higher the stockmarket should eventually trend!!!! Corrections have generally marked the beginning of credit tightening and/or periods in which inflation was observed to drop.
  14. You are right. Unless you work in the public sector, taking tax into account, - the average is far less now!!!!!
  15. To be honest the article is at best slipshod. Some points regarding the article itself? +Central banks are IMO in control of little most of the time - the market is normally in charge. +Prices (of anything) are not measures of inflation. + It is stated that inflation is "dead" yet it has a 1 - 2% inflation forcast - WTF? I Know many here fear hyperinflation, and the majority here I suspect do not trust official inflation figures. I have much sympathy for both these views, especially for those in the "cynical" camp. But should we consider this line? : Instead Minford believes that across the developed world the cycle of the 1970s, when rising inflation was inevitably followed by recession-inducing punitive monetary policies, is over. I certainly do not think that recessionary monetary policies are quite done. But is there something in what is being said? I believe that MOST of the inflation of prices of goods, and in particular asset prices have been do, in the main, to an expanding credit supply - rather than the printing of notes. If we have in effect zero interest rates and prices of goods only moving by 2% (or 4% if you would like an unofficial take on things) then what is actually happening? More to ther point what will happen when credit tightens as people become fearful? COULD we be looking at a deflationary scenario playing out?
  16. I think we have moved from denial to anger TTRTT?? You make my sides split.
  17. Perhaps they should have a type of contents insurance, new for old, rather than a Dollar price.
  18. Or start hoarding cash and Gov't bonds?
  19. I hope quoting myself will not be taken amiss. I'm sure some here will do so in any event. I am no long term gold bear by any stretch. I'd "re suggest", if I may, that the best way of protecting yourselves at the moment is to hold your nerve building fiat and gold holdings. The time and place, rate and amount of gold purchases for instance - should be left to the individual, but do not get carried away by your emotions - you will become part of the crowd. There was (and perhaps is) a perma bull gold crowd forming here on HPC. Dr Bubb, and Buylow' suggest other ways of making money here and elsewhere. Perhaps it may be time to have a more balanced approach to protecting yourself? My gold, though, has been purchased as an insurance - (Buylow MAY be right though about central banks). Unfortunately insurance costs a premium at times!!!!!
  20. Not exactly as I recall. I don't think central banks had anything to do with the correction.
  21. Not sure about the 3% part of this, but this is PERHAPS what needs to be done.
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