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House Price Crash Forum

vinny

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Everything posted by vinny

  1. With no "price discovery", look how they follow the market down, this one a good example: Total Loss: $58,600 Percent Loss: 10.0% Asking Price: $529,900 Bedrooms:4 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:2984 Asking Price Changes: Down 18.4% from $649,000 On 07-08 Down 15.1% from $624,000 On 07-15 Down 8.5% from $579,000 On 07-22 Down 5.2% from $559,000 On 08-05 Down 3.7% from $550,000 On 08-14 Adding to their losses, whilst adding to inventories!!!!!!
  2. Where will prices fall to? After any and every bubble the price falls below the point at which the mania started. I.e.: real estate will be seriously undervalued by the time the “correction” is over. The tricky bit is working out where the mania started. I have 3 main candidates. 1/ 2001 undoubted mania here. 2/1995 bullish optimism despite what could be labelled a 6-year bear market. 3/1981 (ish). When could we see a bottom? Based on an idealised cycle of 18.3 years – you do the math!!!!! Based on Fibonacci. IF the top is say 2007 (hint) then : 1995 to 2007 = 12 years bull = 61.8% of cycle (perhaps)!!!! Therefore 12 / 61.8 = 19.41 year cycle. 38.2 % of 19.41 = 7.41 year bear market to bottom in 2014 /2015 (ish) (I think)
  3. Deflation. Check out "www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca" (Note Ian Gordon recommends gold AND cash).
  4. Well it's been sometime since I posted this - FWIW I've recently loaded up at $620 - the opposite of what I thought in the above post. This gives me (roughly) a mix of 50%cash and 50% gold. It MAY be time to protect yourself as cgnao would say.
  5. IMO we may see $550 and the bull may remain intact.
  6. Not quite yet. But they will be soon when men wake up to what is going on.
  7. Thanks for thart BB - and WOW £400b just like that. Question though - is it CASH - they still have not printed £400b, it's just a case of transfering the debt??????? (sorry if I am slow on this one).
  8. This is what I mean by checking account - the debt has not been converted until the BOE sell?
  9. Perhaps a poll would have been a good idea. Perhaps there is a reason for the "in between" answers. For those (few) who may remember some of my posts will recall (perhaps?) that I think deflation is the most likely outcome from a debt bubble. Unfortunately governments, markets, banks and central banks have become more than adept at manipulating money and credit. However it is not clear if they ,in actuality, have a clue what they are doing other than trying to influence credit (to try to produce their short term desired outcome). Therefore any deflationary or inflationary forcast should, IMO, be balanced. One can not predict the future with absolute certainty in this area. Quite simply the same debt bubble scenario could be destroyed by either outcome. I think it is also hard predict - at THIS point - how the "crowd" will behave. Will they panic to hoard cash as real estate / SM's tank - even if the amount of notes in circulation is increasing rapidly?
  10. The BOE have not actually "bought" these Gilts as I understand it. Rather than they are "checked" against an account. Credit funding credit!!!!
  11. An interesting point. Can you guess the blanks (******) top see if a absolute rule is followed with inflation versus money (note only) supply? Answers below: "Dollars in circulation were now expanding rapidly. In the year before the end of August, ****, dollar circulation increased by about 25% ($1,106,338,000). This trend would increase spectacularly as the financial crisis deepened. It also proved that the amount of dollars in circulation - which had declined sharply in the first year of the ***** ********* - was totally dependent on the demand for currency and was not in any way limited during the ***** ********* ** ****** ******** ****** " 1/ 1931 2/ Great Depression 3/ Great Depression by Federal Reserve policy.
  12. If we do see deflation NSI capital bonds and NSI fixed rate saving certs will be amongst the "safest" plays IMO. Depends on if the Government honours the debt.
  13. IF that is the way we go - then almost no one will spot it until they are too late IMO.
  14. Careful Charlie - Though you may be right (if I have your thinking correct?) - perhaps the Government just needs to attract credit from a diminishing money supply as provided by the general public?
  15. Firstly, reference Jonpo's post. Secondly consider what MAY happen if we get deflation. Caution: Rates ROSE during the last great (global) deflation to defend currencies for much of the time deflation was in force. Some here, with understandable reason, think that rising rates are indicative of rising inflation. This is only true most of the time - there are exceptions. Of course there are numerous examples of central banks trying to stimulate inflation by various methods including cutting rates. Japan being, I think, the best recent example. I think we all know what has happened to Japanese land / real estate prices. Either way I think you may be starting to agree that property is NOT the place to be?
  16. Good post Van. I've got my eyes on that 5500 level too!!!!
  17. This is pretty much my outlook. I'll be watching for a base after August, if my outlook is correct, before buying more gold. I'm watching the downward action - to perhaps give clues to if / where / how high we will go upon a rebound.
  18. I like all of these products - if used correctly. BTW - I don't know if you are aware that there are several issues of savings Certs a year, and it is not unusual for the terms to be slightly different? I have found premium bonds a good place to park some cash when I'm not sure about other, more "exciting", investments. At a guess the Government may be actually steering people in a way to profit the Government themselves. The whole National savings and Gilt scene gets jigged around to try to provide a cheap source of credit for the Government. They can get it "wrong". For example those who purchased (directly) Gilts at 9% yield are doing very well - whilst the Gov't is paying over the odds. If you suspect disinflation then Gilts (bought directly) are excellent. A simpler play for this scenario, for the average punter, are the likes of fixed rate saving certs / capital bonds. I also suggested, some time back, that STR's / FTB's may well consider placing part of their cash in Index linked Certs. The housing cycle has shown RPI (no matter how flawed) to outstrip HPI on the downward part of the cycle - without exception. A 5 year note should time the bottom well from here IMO.
  19. This today's rally (so far) may provide some clues.
  20. Depends what side of the market you are on.
  21. The "heading north of 5%" answers F's point in a way. Creditors (not the Fed or BOE) will demand a higher return for the risks which are becoming more obvious. A bond sell off is likely at some point as these low yields are not justified by the said risks. The prop on bond prices may be their percieved "safety" - which is an illusion IMO. IF bond investors wake up to the bigger picture bonds will reproduce the losses seen in property / stocks.
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