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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by vinny

  1. Quote from BBC artice today: "The latest jump in the price of oil came after a US government report showed that American petrol stocks had fallen by 2.1 million barrels due to ongoing strong demand during the main US driving season, and a number of glitches at American refineries. In the Middle East, oil traders are particularly concerned at the situation in number one producer Saudi Arabia, where US authorities have warned of a possible attack on US consulates. The high price of oil is having a knock-on affect on global petrol prices, which are also hitting records." I think this puts it a bit better than I managed.
  2. Don't think even Buffett, Bubb and Branson could pull us out of the **** in the next few years. In Brown, Blair and Barmy new labour army we (well not me) place our trust. OMG.
  3. ABB, yeah, be interesting to see the graph. What spike are you refering to, IR's or oil. Unfortunatley oil or suchother may be blamed for this crash, rather than the market itself getting out of hand. I don't believe the right lessons will be learned, let alone be remembered from the bubble. That is, to my mind, that the market itself was in error - a mania has happened. Conditions such as low IR's / irresponsible lending may have supported, but not caused the bubble. Also, the bubble will not be "burst" rather than it will self correct. Yet factors, such as higher unemployment or oil will, incorrectly, be seen as why the market collapsed. Just my 2p's worth.
  4. Those who still have hopes of UK rate cut helping the housing market may like to take note. USA rate up, market still has futher to go = prices up. UK rate up, market on way down, still = prices down. I'm not sure of this, but I think UK rates were cut just before, or as, the last two HPC's happened?
  5. "Why does a lack of refining capacity cause crude oil prices to rise pray tell?" There are a few reasons for this. At face value none, indeed logic would suggest the opposite to be true. Fears of a shortage of one component, eg Gasoline, has added to the worry about supply in general. This is not a physical link, just the emotion of the market. What is seen are concerns, shortages, bottlenecks etc. A driver for crude increases? The crude producer is able to sell at a higher price because of higher refinery margins caused by shortages, expected or real, of individual components. Refineries are also able to make more money from raffinate steams at the moment. Without these higher margins refineries would wind down, produce less, thereby putting downward pressure on crude prices. We are not seeing this. It is a vicious circle as it stands. I should say my original post seemed to dismiss, outright, the concern with crude supply itself. This was not what I meant. Rather there is a push and pull situation at the moment, refining capability and the effect thereof have been underdone on this thread. . It is going to get very interesting!!!
  6. I think you mean AER rather than APR. Which is the annual earnings rate. It is used as a comparitor between different accounts to make sense of the way interest is accrued and added. It is, when understood and used correctly, the best way to compare accounts which may pay interest at different intervals. (eg yearly v.s monthly). It is, though, a somewhat confusing measure and can be misleading. Best advise I can give is go into your bank(s)/building society and ask. (Ask as many as you can, shop around)!! Your question is perhaps lacking in enough detail to answer fully. There would be a difference between if you are going to make one large deposit and leave it there for a good while, or make additions or withdrawls from the account(s) as you go. Hope this helps.
  7. Others may be better positioned to point you to a way of making the maximum returns on your capital. I am assuming that you are looking to re-enter the housing market in the future when prices have dropped. Why not try just cash savings, e.g 3K in cash isa? For further tax free savings NSI have both premium bonds and saving certificates. You could by using these get 63K away, straight away, from fatty Gordon!!!! I think against a falling housing market you don't need to be doing a great deal, just stay risk free, let the crash and your cash, do the rest!!!
  8. "At this time many oil and gas companies struggled to cover costs, spent next to nothing on exploration, and made no major investment in downstream facilities such as refineries. In many respects this did the industry good and the tight supply of funds made the industry focus on it's costs and make things as efficient as they could." Could not agree more. The rather large oil company I work for was rigged (forgive the pun) for a $10-$15 bbl worlduntil very, very recently! Investment in downsteam facilities/plant has been poor. My department is having it's maintainece budget cut but 17% next year The only real money spent has been increasing capacity (now at max I guess) of existing units, or to enable low sulphur fuels to be produced. Bottlenecks anyone?
  9. Shares with div's reinvested (Oil and banks) 50%, NSI saving cert linked to RPI 20%,plus mixed cash and premium bonds with remainder. (Premium bonds are a bit more of a punt due to capital errosion, but what the heck)!!!!
  10. I don't see the rises in crude price as being caused by "peak oil" to any great extent. Rather than a lack of refining capacity should demand continue to rise. Crude inventories have held up, and look robust. The concern is having refined products, this is the main is driver in the price. At the moment this would mean concerns in getting enough gasoline to the consumer. Towards the end of the year all eyes will be on heating oil supply/demand. Refineries are flat out. We can not pump more finished product.
  11. Your question hits the nail on the head. It's not so much a problem of the price being even, say, $70 for a short period. It's about the sustained high price of oil (even somewhat below $60) that will eventually pose problems.
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