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Everything posted by vinny

  1. That cycle inverted - those who use cycles know that can happen from time to time. BTW Treasury yields bottomed on that date. To be fair to Martin Armstrong that date was part of a "mid cycle point" - not a turn point.
  2. "So if it is right to demand personal responsibility from the welfare claimant, the absent father or the career criminal" Nice grouping Dave - good to see the war against men will carry on if you are elected. Lost in the detail for most probably. Vote from me - not a chance
  3. Oh FFS - we should be discussing the likely timing of the exit of the current deflation. Sure, that may well be hyperinflationary - but we are at, where we are at, for now. BTW Printing of money in this environment would likely have either no effect due to velocity issues, or actually produce more credit deflation. (ie Bond holders become fearful and dump their holdings).
  4. Money will actually get more "expensive" in effect. Real interest rates are high relative to asset prices. An example would be that a loan made at 10% for an asset that is going up by 20% means that the (loan) money is very cheap. A loan that is made near 0% for an asset going down 20% becomes expensive. Durch - you keep referencing Prechter's book - I think you are correct to do so and I recommend it without reservation.
  5. Whoops - I expect deflation to be a drawn out process occuring in either Gold or fiat terms (or both) with perhaps a similar time frame to yourself. It will take time to beat the confidence out of people. Have you had a look at Ian Gordon's Long wave analyst web page??? May be of interest to you. Pluto - Thanks for the correction.
  6. Brown proof read one of the chapters?????? Perhaps I'll give this book a whirl - cheers.
  7. Child poverty in this country does not exist, by any reasonable measure, unless abuse or neglect is present.
  8. Addendum to post....... What do you think Benanke is going to say - "If we enter a deflationary spiral there is nothing we can do"? I don't think so somehow.
  9. Pluto - I am not doubting that you have read this somewhere - I disagree with the source. Many wise, and, many ultra stupid utterances fell from the lips of Freidman. I think Benanke is, possibly, a smart man - but if he was'nt before then he is mostly a politician now. He must foster a confidence in the currency, the markets, and induce a certain level ofdebt to keep everything moving smoothly.
  10. How would it? Bypassing lending criteria? Banks would have to be willing to lend at 0% and people would have to be willing borrow money. Banks AND people would reject debt and hoard money IF it's value was rising against assets and/or goods. If Freidman was correct why have we got a carry trade and why has Japan endured an extended period of deflation??? The Japanese are SLOWLY rejecting debt, as we have embraced it. Japanese are human - but their current social mood is different to ours. As for dropping rates to zero - I don't think the markets would be as forgiving a second time around - the currency would be toast - something the central banks would wish to avoid at all costs.
  11. Taking the US as an example – let us set the record straight (if I am wrong please correct me but as I understand it) : currency production is passive. There is no basis in law for the central bank to just print notes – let alone drop them from helicopters. There has to be an equal number of, effectively, bonds issued for every last dollar printed. If there are no takers for government / treasury debt then no notes can be issued. This may change in the future, but let us be clear that, as things stand, Benanke was bluffing as the Fed was panicked that a real deflationary episode was unfolding. Every last card has been played IMHO to defeat deflation bar proactive currency production, here is some of the evidence since 2000: Fractional Reserve requirements of banks = practically nil. Interest rates = effectively nil. (changing now I know). Ultra loose credit standards (also changing at the moment).
  12. My thinking on confiscation has little to do with being a gold bug per se. The Government will confiscate any means you have to stand on your own two feet to promote your potential reliance on them. Of course this has been more profound when dealing will their own issuance of currency. But they confiscate means of self reliance by stealth in other areas. I’m thinking here about the likes of taxing savings in general, inheritance tax and say the abolition of PEP’s etc. That said……read into this what you will….a true and “un - taxable” store of wealth, not denominated in any one particular currency, will be unacceptable to some.
  13. Yes - but at least you may now consider hiding silver - your initial post on silver seems to suggest that hoarding / hiding was'nt and would'nt ever be a concern.
  14. Bulky at the moment pound for pound perhaps - that may change. Nerd question of the day: What's the valve ratio of a kilo of silver v.s a kilo of pound coins???
  15. "innit" - You must be a suvanahhh. Seriously - anything can happen - a good grounding in history may help to protect oneself.
  16. Silver was confiscated by the French Gov't in the aftermath of John Law's fiat experiment. From memory any holding above 500 livres was declared illegal.
  17. So that's sorted then - no deflation because the Fed have a target! Central banks can only influence inflation at times of "stability". They are in control of very little if either asset prices OR currency is suspect. If central banks have any role at all it is to foster a low inflation environment and a mood of confidence in their currency/financial systems/asset prices. In other words with a fiat currency they are the ones that actually produce the inflation. Have they been battling deflation? - I think so. Have they or do they flood the system with liquidity? Well yes but only at the repo rate. It has taken willing borrowers to produce the liquidity - as with Japan there may well be no clearing rate in the end that can induce credit to be taken up, therefore the money supply may fall off. what I mean here is that credit growth is a two way street - willing lenders require willing borrowers. You can't just blame the banks.
  18. There is something deflationary afoot. Funny enough I was in the Liverpool branch of Lewis - they had lots of reductions / sales on clothes.
  19. That's one of the problems we face - data should always be treated as suspect - but I don't think we should trust any "official" or VI data at the moment.
  20. Van, I would not be shocked to see the cyclical low happening any time up to early Q2 2007.
  21. That's the thing - many bear markets look like bears only when you look back. What has the SM done for this year, even including dividends, when adjusted for inflation? One phrase if I may? - NOT WORTH THE RISK!!
  22. I hope we are now observing the start of a disconnect between oil and gold. Speculators (and quibblers) bailing????? - I hope so. I'll take 100oz of those apples thank you!!! Why the change of heart?
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