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About azal777

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  1. Brought first house in 1993, Northants, 2 bed £25k now £100-£110 so 4x round here but compounded against inflation eroding stagnant wages it’s certsinly a double whammy. prices only doubled? I don’t think so
  2. Agree with most of that article. we really do have massive structural problems in this country, as do most western countries. im still in the camp of big house price falls, but, it’s when? Interference to prop up can’t continue forever, I predicted a few years ago 2018 will be the year of reckoning, it looks like spilling over into 2019 but the foundations of our economy are worse than rocky.
  3. For sure this is quite possible and I think, probable since an awful lot of stock has been off the grid for a few years to find even 20% of that finding its way onto the market will at least rebalance the supply/demand arguments and fix prices lower. if we do end up in a recession whether brexit led or not plus factor in this scenario which will,likely unfold first and that will definitely send prices further south. both my mates boy and my daughter, same ages are saving saving saving and waiting waiting waiting, fortunately under no pressure unlike perhaps some posters here who have families and just want a damn roof over their heads at a sensible price. it will happen but none of us can predict when since the government can and might interfere when said Armageddon looks like becoming reality and that’s the problem, economics in general in the UK has been far removed from reality for far too long.
  4. House price collapses historically go hand in hand with job losses and the subsequent loss of confidence in the economy. we aren’t nowhere near that, yet. but a lot of quoted jobs are suspect at best, plus there are lots of what I call ‘ghost’ jibs where companies are employing ppl who have nothing to do, no wonder productivity is sluggish. those ppl fry very quickly when sentiment changes. house reductions come after all this unemployment filters through, brexit could stoke this loss of confidence, we all know though that the economy is very fragile, despite best arguments to the contrary. the elements are in place but we aren’t there yet, predicting a slide isn’t difficult in my view, when is another issue entirely. im encouraging my eldest 21 yo to save save save and wait for the fruit to hang much lower, fortunately she’s in no hurry.
  5. Japan has proved that rates can indeed stay low for an inexplicably long period, I factored this in after 2008 and don’t expect much upward trajectory anytime soon. if as suggested in the article the near retirees are saving more with interest rates likely to,offer no return it’s potentially possible it will be ploughed into the housing market increasing prices further as more amateur landlords are enticed into something different where prices only ever go up :)) In addition the fact we have way too much debt is going to outweigh the obvious need to attempt to normalise rates, which, has put us in a right mess.
  6. Ahh, not necessarily so. our local Sainsbury’s had to kick the contractors off site that had held the deal for a number of years. Word was from some friends involved in the case that there were some ‘issues’ rega ding staff. two months later and a new contract and gang, this time primarily Albanians. Things appeared smooth up until recently and suddenly, they have gone too. I don’t yet know why but can guess. are my local Sainsbury’s incompetent? Are the contract winners trying their Luck? either way not a great endorsement for Sainsbury’s, or, the car washing industry so now blighted with migrant labour.
  7. I have sympathy here with the ‘older generation’. my first property purchase was in1993, we knew we wanted a repayment mortgage, so we headed to the EA to meet their Scottish widows ‘advisors’. for twenty minutes she went on and on about endowments, I’d already got three tiny ones as advised by my dad (just come out in March 😂) which were just independant. I eventually got a second to say, all well and good but I want a repay... the words hardly escaped me before she said ’do you work for nothing?’ to which I replied ‘yes’ sometimes (being a market trader then) i thought she thought I was winding her up so after we both combusted and I told her to ‘f’ herself we walked away from the whole deal and the agent who hadn’t done anything wrong missed a sale. i think what the youngest on here imply sometimes is that we were all a bit slow but actually I don’t think I could demonstrate a point of hard sell any better, she had no intention of even discussing a repayment mortgage, none at all, that’s what most of us were dealing with back then.
  8. Excellent appraisal, agree entirely. thinking like ‘them’ hasn’t done me badly and usually one is able to work out what ‘they’ are going to do before they do it. the assault on landlords being a prime example after ‘they’ saw where all the cash moved from once the banks gave up offering interest to those lucky to have savings. a huge collapse is coming, don’t forget toilet rolls, hygiene arguably as important as gold in a crisis.
  9. I suspect that since HMRC can go back years and they first sat and waited to see how many landlords would not declare. Greed then takes over for many and after they get away with it for 1,2,5,10 years the greedy so and sos can’t help themselves. i suspect HMRC have just sat and waited , knowing they can go right back to the start and ruin those greedy gits in one foul blow. In addition it will likely cause a HPC which will then allow their corporate crony chums to buy back in again, taking more properties off the market whilst building their bulging corporate portfolios ever greater. As much as I support this scheme I still see nothing much being done about the large corporations, but, since the country is run by them I never expected to so the low hanging fruit will have to do.
  10. I think most ppl agree that the fundamentals of a disaster are there and evident in our system. market forces have long stopped operating particularly in the housing market where stimulus and interference have kept prices up. my view is that of another poster who simply said when the credit stops, the banks and corporations have such a hold of our economy that they can effectively grow it or collapse just by the tap of credit. collapse asset prices via a recession and buy back up housing stock on the cheap to effectively push us towards a privatised rental country where housing stock gradually moves into the hands of the richest elite whilst simultaneously making long term debt slaves of the poor unfortunates. i think it was Jim Rickards that said recently that the system is bankrupt beyond repair, the elite know it and for some at least there vision of a one world bank will come ever nearer as the public get more despondent with boom bust cycles with special drawing rights (SDRs) being the new ‘currency’. I have no idea about that but it’s obvious our system is bust and purely reliant on credit or, pulled forward demand. When will a collapse happen, if at All? Who,knows, I predicted the 2008 collapse as early as 2002 but clearly they hadn’t put anywhere near enough credit and debt slaves into the system by that time. I had a feeling for 2018 but at best, it may slow later in year with a problem in 2019, who knows, only the elite know so they can position themselves to hoover up the debris long before we’ve even woken up. For me that’s how I see it, you can’t print money and charge interest which isn’t printed at source and expect there to be enough ‘money’ to go around, QE masks this deficiency and lack as most seeking work find it, until it gets withdrawn and the credit taps get turned off.
  11. Actually a sobering statistic then as it’s quite plausible 2 years down the line, the honeymoon deal over, having to remortgage, and potentially the market turning south. anything even remotely like 2007 and some serious negative equity. Usually with sliding property prices come higher unemployment and things get very desperate. Then the landlords that have exited the market a while ago saving their bundles come in and scoop up again, some of the those victims being those who paid the greatest premiums. A never ending repeat cycle as I see it. It’s great news ftb are able to buy again but not now, save your cash and wait, don’t be an unnecessary victim.
  12. As will the astute landlords waiting for prices to drop with the readies in their pockets, not all landlords are brain dead chasing them up to oblivion.
  13. Often the scamper by investors out of the south and into the north is a sign that the market is in its final throes. Pruces are beyond unaffordable now and any sign of recession can quickly lead to carnage. But with interest rates so low it’s really worrying how many ppl might still lose their homes in such an event. Can’t see IR ever normalising in this country again in my life time.
  14. Only my observations and experiences but we are all naturally assuming we will make it to pension age, medicine may indeed be advancing but so are the needs of ever increasing numbers in duebetes, bowel and Cancer wards at hospitals. one national newspaper front headline today was regarding a hospital in oxford who can no longer service the needs of cancer patients and are having to eek out both the treatments and schedules so as to cope. Knowing plenty of friends at my local hospital they have seen numbers increasing by 25% in these wards over last 5 years and amongst cancer patients the scary thing has been the ages, it’s no,longer an illness confined to the OAPS, it’s hitting 30and 40 yo too. i have my doubts whether a significant portion of future OAPS will ever actually have to worry about this issue, it would be foolish not to plan for retirement of course but with resources disappearing and nursing posts going unfilled at a time when demand is getting ever greater, from what I’m hearing, I’m beginning to wonder.
  15. Quite simply this will continue well into the future. as we continue to pay billion pound a week in interest only, not including principle sum, the gvt proportionally have less disposable income, so they cut back. it only takes a huge reduction in tax income and the scales really tip. all this austerity is in part a cover story to hide how much money we are truly giving away with nothing to show for it. so, they cut back to the councils who then have no choice but to ask us for above inflation charges to make up the shortfall. Include police (speed cameras), hospitals (crazy at times parking costs), and it goes on and on and will continue to get worse. one day when the public sees funallynthat sod all gets spent on roads, education, health, we might all collectively ask where the f*** our cash is actually spent. ppl also forget the leisure, arts and sports burden the gvt used to shoulder now gets cash from lottery players, another avenue the gvt have been able to secretly cut back on without public outcry. to even attempt to save 1-2 million in say education is plain daft when we gift 1 billion a WEEK in interest payments alone puts things into very obvious perspective, that, this country is at an end as far as the system is concerned.
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