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Pick It Down

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Posts posted by Pick It Down

  1. Exactly - one year of poor harvest due to a local climate abberation and it's the end of the World 'media scare' scenario!

    This happens normally somewhere around the World every year.

    Note that it now needs Big Business Banksta 'speculators' to force the price up artificially, on the tiniest bit of bad news!

    They directly killed well over 30 Million people in poorer countries, due to starvation, the last time they 'speculated' with basic foodstuff prices!

    We've not had many moronic catastrophist threads recently about food/oil/water. Have a bunch of TFHs left us? ;)

  2. Martin Lewis is pointing out this isa:


    * New! Inflation-beating cash Isa. National Counties Building Society's index linked tax-free cash Isa pays a guaranteed 1% AER. PLUS, it locks your cash in for five years and on maturity you get the rise in RPI inflation. You must save a min. £5,100 including any transfers from old cash Isas.

    This means it's now the only account guaranteed to beat inflation (as the Govt's NS&I axed the only similar deal in July). You can apply until 30 Sept but I suspect it'll be over-subscribed and close sooner.

    Yet don't automatically think: "Wow, at current rates, it's 5.8% tax-free!" Five years is a long time; inflation could change a lot and if interest rates rise, this may no longer look a cracker.

    But we have deflation. :unsure:

  3. There is a big campaign for safe standing:


    When I lived in London I had a season ticket for Fulham (pre Al Fayed days), a club I had chosen to watch purely because they had a big terrace behind the goal with a view of the Thames. Good atmosphere and a nice view when the football flagged. I don't consider myself a Fulham fan, then or now, but they got my money because they had a terrace.

    As long as Chelsea, Spurs whatever can fill their gounds they couldn't care less that their all seater stadia drive people like me away, but when they start finding they can't sell all their tickets they will finally start taking notice.

    Newly-built rugby league grounds have terraced areas, it is great being able still to watch sport standing up with a pint in your hand. :)

  4. I think far more telling than attendances is that on almost all the Sky live games I've 'appened across, when they list the squad at the beginning, almost every side has empty slots as they are "....unable to name a full squad"

    There is just not the embarassment of riches anymore, certainly outside the Premier League, that means clubs can have dozens of fringe players in their squads.

    In reference to what Bloo Loo says up there, I was a massive supporter of a certain London team through my teens and early twenties, there is a certain working class camararderie involved that's difficult to explain. However, Sky have destroyed the game, and because of them I no longer go. As you suggest, I'm no longer willing to fund the lifestyles of the players, and further encourage Sky's destruction of the game with hype, advertising, corporatisation and kick-off time shuffling.

    English football sold it's soul in the nineties to Sky. Everyone will tell you the quality is better, but the soul has gone in favour of out of town Lego mega-domes, face-painting, all-seater stadia, goal music, mascots, 5pm kick-offs, shitstains like Jamie Redknapp and Andy Gray, euurghh. Not for me anymore. But I'll be here if they ever come back looking for real supporters. B)

    Watch lower-league football. Non-league is a really good typical football experience still. You get to see a load of new towns/boozers too. ;)

  5. Blackpool claim to have more or less sold out every home game this season..(by the way, a very interesting article)..


    As for Wigan, they're a tiny club by premiership standards, and rather "unfashionable", who are trying to attract supporters from a small fanbase. Its very competitive in the NW, with the fanbase highly fragmented due to the sheer number of FL & Premier League clubs in and around the vicinity.

    They haven't really got a successful history to fall back on (such as Leeds or Southampton). Wigan have only been a league club for 32 years. Bigger clubs manage to hold on to their status as being a "big boy" even though, in footballing terms, they aren't. I've always believed that Wigan was a Rugby League town. Looking at Wigan Warriors attendances over the last few years would probably give a better representation of how well the area is doing..

    Ticket prices are barmy.. My club are in League One. An average game can cost £20...


    Warriors are averaging 15.6k attendance this season which is the second highest in the last decade. The highest attendance was 22.7k versus Warrington.

  6. It would be more obvious with the oil price on the same graph. I'd like your explanation why production didn't increase while the price exploded to over $140/barrel and demand growth from China and others expanded at an impressive rate.

    Production takes a while to respond. Something about new oil rigs not being able to go up in a day.

  7. Where is the peak?

    I don't see an obvious trend in that graph. Could go either way.

    Also oil production doesn't depend on how much oil is in the ground, not yet anyway. The amount produced depends on how much the oil countries want to produce (plus demand, price manipulation, etc)


    But don't let facts get in the way of their conspiracy theory.

  8. OK, this is the USA, but will the idea reach the UK? ... Here's how the plan works. Say you buy a $300,000 house in a subdivision where the developer is participating in a private transfer fee program and has recorded liens on every lot. When you later sell the property, you will be required to pay a fee of 1% of the price you receive. The money must be disbursed out of the closing proceeds and sent to a trustee representing investors. Those investors fronted cash to the developer in exchange for the right to receive streams of payments for decades as individual houses sell and resell.So, if you buy a house this year for $300,000 and resell it for $325,000 a few years from now, you will owe $3,250 at closing. Even if the house drops in value, you will still owe the 1% fee. And if you refuse to pay it, the deal will not close because a lien has been recorded that runs with the title to the property and mandates that every seller pay. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-harney-20100808,0,1183989.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fbusiness+%28L.A.+Times+-+Business%29

    in something resembling English?

  9. I think that is the problem with all news just now, journalism seems to have changed from reporting facts in a sensible and measured fashion to random speculation.

    Some of the reporting on the cloning issue has been damned right dangerous with the lack of understanding of the issues involved.

    The same when it comes to house prices, it is all very well to say that 'Haliwide report prices in June rose 1%' with the crap we are getting now reading things into figures that is either nonexistant or at best highly speculative.

    I hope you mean that it is a non-story? It is despicable the mainstream media making out there is something dangerous about cloning, which is just a varient of genetic selection which has been going on for millennia.

  10. I think Peak Oil will deliver what I want through very high energy costs acting as a huge brake on excess:

    A return to local living, a requirement for human physical labour leading to full employment, an end to silliness in general - celebs especially, less rushing about, less buying things, less debt, less government nonsense as they won't have the money to waste in the first place, more time for other people, more reading, more contentment.

    It sounds very good which makes it a shame that Peak Oil is VI nonsense.

  11. There are two new (last five years) developments in my road: small blocks of new flats (about 20 between the two of them).

    I consider it scandalous that those were built without at least solar hot water panels. Could efficiently supply 100% of hot water in this season, and make a good contribution to heating+hot water even in winter. And add real value to the flats.

    [edit to add] and ground source heat pump to fill the gap. My brother and sister-in-law are adding that to their house, which is a whole lot more trouble than building it in in the first place.

    Is it cost-effective? Does it require government subsidy?

  12. Not interested or cannot afford? I would be very surprised if anyone in their 20's could afford to buy at the current price level without some form of liar loan and/or liar deposit.

    That said, someone is buying in because the whole thing hasn't seized up like a Taiwanese VCR.

    A chap I know who's 28 has bought a place for £70k from inheritance, everyone else I know is happily renting. I'm in my 20s and could afford around a £15k deposit for somewhere but refuse to at the moment as prices are as we know ridiculous (possibility of BoMaD but personally refuse to go that route). Two cousins had a £100k-ish inheritance and as far as I know neither has "invested" it in property, one seems hell bent on frittering it away travelling for 10 years. Everyone else has been to uni so have had 3 years experience of renting and found it nothing to be afraid of.

  13. Meritocracy.

    - if you are contributing decently to society (ie, earning a decent wage), then to be able to buy your own place

    - if you get into ridiculous debt, then are penalised for it rather than bailed out

    - if you make stupid lending decisions, or invest in entities that do, then you and not taxpayers suffer

    Basically the exact opposite of what is happening right now. I would rather see meritocracy and some collateral damage, than see the current morally hazardous situation continue of things being propped up.

  14. How dare these non ivy league mortals have the tenacity to even comment on an article by st. Krugman.

    The little people just dont understand these complex policy areas.

    Worryingly, certain libdem politicians have suggested a similar view on the AGW scam, calling for dissent from the 'consensus' be silenced.

    You know someone is wrong (and know it) when they call for others to be silenced, and refuse to engage in public debate. The sheeple fall for it though.

  15. I believe on current trends italy is projected to lose 30-50% of its population per generation.

    The UN medium scenario sees world population peak at I think 9 billion in 2050 and fall thereafter.

    Of course that is for the whole world. In the west the net decline will begin much earlier than that.

    And up to 2050, while the population is still growing overall it will be rapidly aging, so by 2050 the demographic structure of the entire world is similar to that of japan 5 years ago. Note that japans demographic driven financial collapse happening in 1989, some 20 years before the population actually began falling.

    So I say world growth stops completely about 2030.

    Not sure what cherry-picking Italy adds to the discussion really, there will always be a spread of pace of population change.

    I hope to see 10bn people on the earth in my lifetime :), it would be a very good news story.

  16. Technology and innovation increase as a result of increases in available energy.

    We "invent" farming....we get pyramids

    We invent a means by which we can industrially exploit hydrocarbons...we get planes, trains and automobiles


    If we are to carry on with business as usual for 6.5 billion and rising, we had better come up with an energetically viable alterrnative to hydrocarbons. A uniquely dense and portable form of energy.

    And we had better do it yesterday.

    Any ideas Bardon?....

    The idea is reduce hydrocarbons per person average use. This will be done by the market making energy more expensive.


  17. Those demographic transitions look ever so neat and tidy don't they Mr Noodle. What gets me is that at the same time as describing a neat series of steps in population development, this article bases that analysis on the last 200 years. 200 years that have, as a result of the industrial use of hydrocarbon energy, seen an absolute explosion in the human population. They even provide a graph to show the rate of increase in that period!

    Given the above particular circumstances of the recent rise in the human population, the decline, post peak production of hydrocarbons, is just as likely to be as steep and as rapid as the ascendency.

    We are in an era of surplus, we can economise if necessary and this will be achieved by market incentives. People will go back to living closer to work for example.

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