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Pick It Down

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Posts posted by Pick It Down

  1. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/8105143/Oil-price-spikes-on-Libyan-talk-of-100-barrel.html

    Benchmark US crude for December delivery rose to a high of $84.14, up $1.19, before slipping back to trade at around $83.94 by 1445 GMT, adding to gains of nearly 2pc on Monday. ICE Brent crude climbed 70 cents to $85.32.
    Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp, told Reuters he thought oil prices would get closer to $100 by the end of the year.

    If QE2 proves to be a damp sqibb commodities may collapse overnight. A lot rides on ben's decision at 18:30 GMT tomorrow.

    Will that be 17:30 our time?

    We're on GMT.

  2. Shouldn't they be encouraging people to switch the lights off. Madcap plans from politicians are without limit.

    They should be encouraging a power supply that can respond to demand. Windmills do the opposite. Peak electricity demand comes at times of very hot weather or very cold weather, conditions that come about with an absence of wind.

    The investment in windmills has been a complete waste, but it has sure lined the pockets of politicians' friends in the industry who got the nod and the wink.

  3. If they raised rates they would have to print over and above the extra debt interest incurred to pay down the debt faster (I'm talking about the effect on govt. debt here) otherwise you're just standing still, the bond market would stick to fingers up to that and the currency would take a kicking.

    Even if they raised rates and only printed to stand still (if they could somehow judge that - which they can't) savers wouldn't be better off and would still be losing money in real terms.

    You can't get something for nothing.

    Gold all the way, but then you knew I'd say that.

    You forget that by printing they can depress bond rates?

    I'm not actually in gold, but it is an interesting alternative.

  4. This country reminds me of Premier League football.

    You have the Manchester City / Chelsea class of billionaires you need never worry about money and can buy up vast swarthes of the country and rent it back to us. These are your super rich global elite of thieves, murderers and the odd genius.

    You then have the Manchester United / Arsenal type of established rich. They have the financial power to do whatever they like, own a lot of stuff and will still own everything in generations to come. This is where most politicians come from.

    The Leeds / Newcastle types of debt fuelled expansion - sometimes they are able to almost reach the top but then they'll come crashing down afterwards. These are your property millionaire, pop star etc classes who live the high life but leave nothing behind as a legacy.

    The Liverpool - overleveraged trying to live beyond their income. Income - not as high as you'd think from the outside. These are the types who made big money in the boom but it was an illusion. Could be the old money family in the crumbling manor house.

    Then you have the Everton/Tottenham /Villa middle classes - they'll live within their means, might have the odd success but really never get to experience the thrills or the depths. Are expected to compete with the "elite" but we all know who'll come out on top eventually. These are your £25k-£100k a year household families.

    Rest of the league - some sensible, some reckless, don't earn that much less than the middle tier but are regarded as fodder by the eilte. These are your low income / benefit types. The odd one might make it into the middle, or even upper tier, but in reality they mostly bump along the bottom.

    HPCers will be the Blackpool/Fulham sort, might be earning F all, might be earning an OK amount, but making the most of what we have :)

  5. They don't need to prepare for the future by saving financial capital. There are many things people can attempt to store wealth in, other than paper money.

    The problem with Pay-Go pensions seems to be one of demographics and governance. The former has to be steady and the latter has to be fair and trustworthy. It seems neither is behaving in an appropriate way.

    Did you quote that from somewhere? If not it's one of the best lines I've seen on HPC.

  6. Been seeing this suggestion in a number of threads recently. Seems to "make sense" in that it could sort out the deficit at the same time as stopping the unfair penalisation of savers. But what would happen to the currency?

    Has this ever been tried anywhere? I expect in the short-term they (central bankers) would be seen to know enough that the effect would be muted, ie they know enough in order to make the two actions counter-balance each other. But would they really?

    Would you prefer to be in gold or paper when the paper is being printed but you could get a 5% YoY return with it?

  7. +1

    This is little-known but entirely correct.

    We have cooled substantially in the last ten years to make 2000-2010 the warmest decade on record, June 2010 the 304th consecutive month with global air temperatures above the 20th century average and the first six months of 2010 the warmest six month period ever recorded. All of this has utterly destroyed the previously much-vaunted upwards trend.

    Nice one Morrissey. Any other profound contributions to make?

    1998 is still going to be warmer than 2010 - both are El Nino years. Why hasn't all that plant food we have been supplementing the atmosphere with caused any warming? Warming is over.


  8. I liked the bloke, and he's a good speaker, but I don't see how he can predict $10 oil and the demise of the $ at the same time. Oil hit $38 at a time when world trade looked on the verge of collapse. World trade would have to truely collapse for $10 oil - I'm not saying that can't happen, but everything would collapse if it did. I'm long oil and happy to stay that way for now.

    And thus the peak oil scammers have another victim :rolleyes:

  9. Methane hydrates are a solid product of a reaction between methane and water that happens at high pressures and low temperatures (i.e. a lot of the sea bed). If you remember the first attempt to put a dome over the Deepwater Horizion leak, it failed because methane hydrates formed and blocked the whole thing up.

    They can also be present in permafrost areas.

    There is significant debate, however, as to how much there is. Trace amounts are present practically everywhere where formation conditions are present; the problem is finding amounts that would be commercial to actually produce. You may have to liberate and capture the methane from square kilometers of ocean floor at a time, or heat vast areas of permafrost, in order to get commercial quantities out. Compared to your average natural gas field, where the big problem is stopping the stuff coming out, or even shale gas, it's a massive technical challenge even if there is enough to make it worth while.

    I'd also point out that as the permafrost warms and the arctic ocean loses ice cover, there is a possibility that it will be released naturally. How much and how quickly is in the 'very unknown' category, but luckily we are running an experiment.

    Ah the new modus operandi of the climate evangelists. Start with a reasonable sounding post and then succumb to the usual ******** warming nonsense, warming that hasn't been going on for over a decade. :rolleyes:

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