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rantnrave

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Everything posted by rantnrave

  1. Not buying a house in the '90s was the worst financial decision I (n)ever made. Not buying a house in the '00s is increasingly looking like the best financial decision I ever made...
  2. 18 months ago, the number of properties coming to market fell while the amount of (misguided) buyers remained constant. I just can't see that happening this time. Buyers are vanishing faster than sellers - spooked by the cuts and knowing the banks aren't lending. If we get down to sales of 30K a month that are nearly all forced, then that is going to bring the price indices crashing down even faster than if more was on the market. That's my theory anyway - someone more intelligent than I is welcome to suggest otherwise!
  3. Hope so. 18 months of -5% per quarter might make it possible for us to make a cash purchase.
  4. Yes - you are right. BUT if the correction we all believe is fundamentally inevitable and overdue is actually upon us this time, then all these indices will need to start reflecting this, as was the case in the second half of '08.
  5. Looking ahead at the Forex Factory, there's a RICS sentiment report out tomorrow. Next week is a Rightmove survey. After that comes Nationwide's latest figures at the end of the month. If, big if, these all go our way then it could be a very interesting month. Hang on in there.
  6. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-15920378.html This has been on the market for two years plus. In '08 the seller wanted 95K and turned down 85K. By 2009, the seller saw their mistake and dropped the price to 85K. This year it went down to 70K. Now it's heading to auction (see link below) for 55K. Doubt it will fetch that either... http://www.findaproperty.com/displayprop.aspx?edid=07&salerent=0&pid=7228019
  7. Patter of small feet came along. His parents live out of town in the countryside and have a small cottage on site that's just become empty and they could live in, be closer to family and babysitters etc. They've (original couple) looked at renting their house out to make the move, but are still on a high fixed rate deal that rent is unlikely to offset. Panic bought at the peak imho. Can't help but think if they'd spent any time beforehand on this site they wouldn't be in this position. It's not a problem for them to stay put so it's not exactly a sob story.
  8. This all assumes that sellers could take the financial 'hit' if they absolutely had to. What about those who managed to get on the ladder in 07/08 with a 115% mortgage - ie, they are already in negative equity. I know of such a couple and the minute they worked out a minor price fall had put them in n/e they took their house straight off the market and accepted that they were going to be there for a while. Thing is, they're intelligent people too!
  9. Some friends are in this situation - married couple, just 30, each earning 25K. Where we live, 2.5 times that will give them somewhere reasonable. 3.5 and you're doing very well - which is what they have done. I have to be careful not to lose the friendship when we discuss hps. They are keen to snap up more properties, see them as a good investment and in their position, especially without kids, I can see why they think that (that plus a dose of msm spin). They own two properties and are housesitting their parents place at the mo. One of them they had to kick the tenants out for not paying for three months. They had also absolutely trashed the place. The other place they are trying to find tenants for, but without luck (looking to get too high rent imo). They're also not benefitting from low irs because they fixed rates for an extended period when it looked like they were going up. Absolutely none of this has deterred them whatsoever. Housing bubble? As far as they're concerned their never was one and there certainly isn't one now. At the same time, their situation is boosted by the fact that they still got their uni education relatively cheap. In the future, a young couple both with average salary jobs are likely to have a heck of a lot of student debt which will undermine their finances. That argument is rarely aired, even on this site and could be a big drag on FTB's getting a foothold even if prices come down substantially.
  10. Coming to these shores soon? Absolutely. I've already said on this site that soon after the Fear stage will come 'The Blame Game'.
  11. It's actually a lot less difficult than people think. I work for a charity organisation and developed their media strategy on a budget of zero. I send out press releases once a month that are picked up by at least three media each time. What's needed is for someone to trawl through the websites of MSM outlets and gather email contact details - as many as possible. Then, when Halifax, Nationwide etc release their monthly stats, HPC puts out a formal press release stating their take on the figures. This can be as brief as 250 words. It needs laying out in something like Microsoft Publisher so it appears in the body of an email and not an attachment (so more chance to be read). At the bottom needs to be a contact name and telephone number who media folk can get back to for further comment. Making it look professional, no typos and consistency with the contact details will build the HPC brand. After a few such releases these will be noticed as an alternative comment on the issue of house prices.
  12. And look where Mr. Kent seeks to get help beforehand! http://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/News/Story/?storyid=3599&title=Confusion_as_house_prices_plummet_by_record_amount_%E2%80%93_or_rise_slightly&type=news_features Posted By Trevor Kent on Friday 8th October 2010 12:39:28 Now look here, folk, I am just about to go on the Jeremy Vine Show on Radio 2 at about 1.15. What on earth am I going to say?!! Hope you are still selling. Big T.
  13. That's a whopping 6K off average house prices. Champagne corks are a flyin!
  14. For most of the last 15 years I consider myself to have been living the good life - made loads of great friends at uni (and no, not p*ssing it up the wall - I'm teetotal) and even stuck around to do a postgrad course. Then took a gap year with a voluntary organisation that stretched on for over four! Saw a very large amount of places, and not as a tourist. Poverty in Africa and some of Asia made me appreciate the opportunities I had (and still have). Met a great woman, married and moved to her country in Asia. Kept in touch with the voluntary organisation and they offered me a paid post back in Blighty. Felt it was right to time to return, so we made the move. During the years I've been away, house prices skyrocketed. I unwittingly picked the worst years to be away from getting on the housing 'ladder', for sure. Does that mean I regret what I've done and the opportunities I've had? Not at all! When my health fails, I'll look back on some awesome memories, knowing I lived my dreams. And if that means I had to rent all my life, so be it.
  15. If EAs aren't getting sales fees from buyers, then they're going to need a source of income from somewhere. Seems fair enough to take that from unrealistic sellers who are denying them the chance to make sales. Survival of the fittest really.
  16. Needs to be better thought through by whoever designed it. I ticked boxes saying I was renting and have no plans to change. A few questions later it asked me why I was planning to buy a property in the next 12 months! I'd just indicated that I thought prices were going to fall over 10% next year and that it was a bad time to buy!!!
  17. I've had the opportunity to live in both Japan and Germany for a couple of years. Every country has positives and negatives. Cost of eating out in Japan was much lower than the UK, which I loved. Healthcare and school fees for the kids are not provided through taxes though (one reason why the birth rate over there is so low). Language is a bummer to learn (three alphabets, one of 20,000 characters!). Mrs rantnrave also had to pretty much end her employment contract any time we wanted to take a holiday! Still, it's very safe over there with squeaky clean streets. Young people have no attitude issues and alcohol related problems are virtually none. The police still think any non-Japanese person is up to no good however and that can lead to a lot ot harrasment for foreigners. The government is unbelievably moribund and inept. Germany was interesting. Definitely a higher standard of living than the UK. People work hard but holidays are very much a priority. Government benefit system is unbelievably generous too. Again, less alcohol related problems. However, life is very regimented. In our apartment block we had rotas for cleaning the steps, outside bins, sweeping snow in winter. Get these wrong and your life is made miserable. This structure extends to society where systems dominate everything and if you have a problem that doesn't fit into the structure then everything grinds to a halt. Customer service is absolutely appalling... Here in Blighty, I reckon people are more flexible and accommodating than other places. There's an underlying sense of ironic humour to most things which I missed overseas. As pointed out on this forum, house prices are obscene though. I am serious when I say that most UK housing is on a similar cost level to inner Tokyo! The complete comparison cant be made though because houses over there are constructed very differently and gardens are non-existent in places. So, yes, the grass is always greener...
  18. Realistically, are we looking at a positive quarterly figure and a negative MoM? If so, I can guess which one MSM will focus on. Any offers for the adjectives used to avoid the word 'crash' - easing, repricing, adjusting to the economic climate etc etc?
  19. Past my bedtime I"m afraid... I do remember being online and making breakfast at 7am when last month's Halifax figures were released... Is it definitely midnight?
  20. Guess who is cheering this news on in the comments... GREAT HEADLINES. 29.09.10, 12:40am Only a handful of people want house prices to fall. The majority of working people will greet this latest news with a happy face this morning. I think it shows once and for all that the UK is back on track. Lets hope they continue to rise. • Posted by: Sibley •
  21. To a certain extent I agree. Movements of +/- 0.3% month by month are hardly going to result in mass outbreaks of panic. However, when some of these indices show YoY going negative, then it will be picked up by MSM and given extensive coverage. Hopefully with several indices using different methods and timescales to calculate the same basic fact, by Christmas there will be a steady stream of 'house prices now lower than a year ago' stories.
  22. Isn't this survey the king of lagging though? Is the YoY falling? No sign of it being picked up on MSM websites (yet).
  23. Not that it helps you much, but I need to move my money out of Citibank later this month and now have a better insight of how (not) to go about it. Actually, they wrote to me to say the one year bonus rate was nearly up - strange business model - telling me effectively to move my cash to another bank, which is just what I'll do.
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