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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by rantnrave

  1. Weren't we at this stage 18 months or so ago? I remember when one of these two first started reporting rises at the beginning of the bear trap / dead cat bounce. We scoffed at their figures then, but turned out (annoyingly) that they were right... I believe we'll only be locked in for a fall once the YoY turns negative.
  2. Page 2 of the Money Section (buried in the boxed text unfortunately) contains this little nugget: Over three years shares are down 10.4% while house prices have fallen 15.9% In the interest of balance, the figures quoted for one year is +4.6% and five years is +1.3%, which are still poor rates of return. Dunno if these are a reflection of real or nominal prices though. The biggie, at the bottom of this box, says house prices are up a whopping 98% over the last ten years
  3. You'd imagine you couldn't miss something like that on the streetview, but, erm... where's it gone!?!
  4. I agree wholehertedly with these comments BUT am concerned that prices will stabilise because IRs are still so low. There are many more houses out there for sale (visible in my area from the increase in EA boards) but few priced reasonably. Now HIPs have gone, lots of 'sellers' are testing 2007 prices in the knowledge that they don't have to sell if they don't like the offers they receive. The rise in prices earlier this year was caused by people refusing to sell below peak and I dont see that much has changed since then to alter that. Yes unemployment will rise and may hit 10%. That's still leaves 90% of people who wont be affected. A rise in interest rates to much above 3% is going to affect many more who have bought in the last few years, but I don't see that any time soon. The whole system seems stacked against anything but a very gradual glide down in real terms over the next five years.
  5. And here the (predictable) reply comes... Thanks for your email. We don’t always receive the full set of figures from every lender every month so occasionally they are adjusted to reflect this. Once a quarter, when we do get the full figures we update them with the more accurate figures. I hope this helps. Kind regards Jayne Jayne Chichester Press Officer Council of Mortgage Lenders Tel: 020 7438 8922 Website: www.cml.org.uk twitter: www.twitter.com/cmlpressoffice
  6. I've dropped the three names at the bottom of the page an email, casually asking if they could explain the difference. Will post any reply I get!
  7. So has the abolishing of HIPs simply brought along a bunch of j*rks who wouldn't have put their house on the market but are now doing so with no regard to the economic rationale for lower prices?
  8. Anyone else spot this in the report? Lenders and the government must perform a financial balancing act to ensure supply does not begin to pull away from demand. Why? Also thought there was supposed to be a lack of supply overall out there?
  9. What the...? All I can say is that they must have surveyed the prices of lego houses for sale in Toys R Us to come up with a figure like that!
  10. So far they seem to be stating the blindingly obvious (interest rates can only go up and they will at some point). Even more concerning is how the sheeple need this stuff explained to them!
  11. I see that the Halifax survey for August house prices has now been delayed again until Wednesday or Thursday (it was supposed to be out Monday 6th). Wonder what's causing the delay? Do they have something to hide perhaps???
  12. Given that Halifax posted a 0.6% rise in July, a 1.5% fall in August would be a real decline, in their terms, of 0.9% - exactly what the Nationwide came out with. That 0.6% rise they quoted for July annoyingly helped many media commentators paint a mixed picture. Let's hope for a clearer signal (downwards!) this time. Good news that the Nationwide and Halifax figures weren't out on consecutive days. Assuming Halifax shows a fall, that would be another round of much needed reality check coverage in the media!
  13. Has any just been following the discussion on Radio 2 about the housing market's current woes, reasons why sellers are refusing to lower prices etc? Tried my best to hear it over lunch (13.40 ish), but too many work distractions. Should be on the iplayer later on whatever show finished at 2pm
  14. Definitely far more For Sale signs to be seen out there. At the same time, I pass a dozen new builds once a week or so that are have for the most remained unsold since mid 2008. Seems to be a stalemate out there, with buyers refusing to buy at current prices and sellers unwilling to reduce their property's price. Wonder how long this stand-off can go on?
  15. What is it going to take to change people's perceptions? The best part of a decade's media coverage and EA hype have implanted the view that ever increasing house prices are a good thing and prices will only go up. Convincing people that their house is worth less than a couple of years ago seems impossible. I know a lot of intelligent folk who have jumped into the BTL market with no concept of how much the interest on a mortgage really is, the costs of maintenance etc. People really do seem to be thinking very short-term about the 25 year loan they've taken out. There's complete denial out there about potential interest rate rises. Sentiment for squeezed out FTBs is minimal, because everyone is focused on getting the highest price for their property. There are a few parents out there who are looking at their kids' position and starting to think that prices are too high, but that's it. My concern is that if prices do start to fall quickly, as 18 months ago, sellers will quickly retreat again resulting in a lack of supply pushing up prices. Time will tell.
  16. The new to market bar certainly doesn't back up the idea that ever increasing numbers are rushing to sell. Instead, Fool's Gold is right about stuff hanging around. Wonder why that might be
  17. This has got to be the winner in this category! My link
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