rantnrave

If the Scots want out then let them go. I do however find the view that Scots loathe the Tories to be ignoring recent political history. Mrs May lost many Tory seats in England in 2017 and could only form a minority govt with the help of the DUP and a bumper crop of Tory MPs from... Scotland. If the Scots hate the Tories, they kept them in Westminster in 2017... The idea that Scotland wants out of the Union because the UK has left a trading bloc with its closest economic neighbours seems bizarre too. Surely Scottish independence would mean the country pulling out of a trading bloc with its closest economic neighbours...? You need to go back ten opinion polls to find the last time Leave was ahead in Scotland though.

Added to that, I'm wondering if Western property has become the unofficial new Gold Standard to backing up fiat.

This rate of growth is 'obscene', according to... estate agents: https://propertyindustryeye.com/price-growth-of-over-13-in-the-year-to-june-is-borderline-obscene/

I thought FTBs didn't pay that anyway??

Unlikely, given that the index they put put each month is of initial asking prices

Yep In that context, a fall of 0.3% is quite bullish.

Rightmove's initial asking price index isn't seasonally adjusted. It always falls at this time of year if I recall, and usually by more.

This. As someone who receives weekly updates on the normally placid savings market, these developments are significant. Knew I would have to restate this, but it is this momentum and pace of change I am trying to highlight rather than the paltry levels on offer.

0.65% now leading the Easy Access chart - although that's a new name for me and being app only may deter many. Should spur competition though and rates are well off recent lows. https://savingschampion.co.uk/best-buys/personal/easy-access-accounts

One reason? https://propertyindustryeye.com/stock-levels-falling-and-chains-falling-through-due-to-sdlt-surcharge-propertymark/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/aug/08/halifax-latest-to-slash-mortgage-rate-amid-flurry-of-rate-cutting

Sure about that?

Every possibility that the current inflation is temporary is going to be given time to be ruled out before any interest rates are considered.

Another bank today joining the 0.6% club at the top of the Easy Access league. Definite momentum with interest rates on the up (albeit from a very low base).

Another new entry today at the top of the Easy Access chart at 0.6%.

Annual growth decelerates from 13.4% to 10.5%.

Down 0.5%... Must be a coincidence with most of the Stamp Duty holiday ending, cos the boom's all about a race for space. Apparently.

Drawing attention to the rate of direction, rather than the amount on offer, the leading Easy Access Account savings rate has today hit 0.55% (yes, I know). At the trough about a year ago this was 0.4%. So, savings rates have nudged up 0.15% without any corresponding rise from the BoE. Still woefully below inflation, but competition is gathering momentum with the number of accounts offering 0.5% noticeably up in recent weeks. Having that round figure broken today is significant too. (data from the excellent Savings Champion site)

Everyone's getting pay rises, so those with mortgages can afford an increase in monthly payments if IRs go up. More income can also be used to pay any extra taxes needed to cover an increase in the govt's debt repayment bills.... So what's the problem?

May purely be coincidence, but I see that Yomdel stopped updating their Property Market Sentiment Tracker at the end of June: https://www.yomdel.com/property-sentiment-tracker

We've just passed the point of opening everything up in the face of rapidly rising numbers - which has previously been a sure sign that another lockdown is coming. Why announce a lockdown on the last day of the Christmas holidays before all the children return to school, when you can declare one 24 hours later after they have all interacted for one day...

Are the BoE pensions still inflation linked?

Bank of England ‘addicted’ to creating money, say peers https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/16/bank-of-england-creating-money-lords-quantitative-easing The Bank of England risks becoming addicted to creating money and needs to come clean about how it plans to unwind its £895bn bond-buying programme, the House of Lords has warned.A report from a Lords committee – the members of which include the former Threadneedle Street governor Mervyn King – said there was a threat of quantitative easing (QE) leading to higher inflation and causing damage to the government’s finances.The Bank started using QE, a process whereby it creates money by buying government and corporate bonds, in 2009 during the global financial crisis, but has stepped up its use during the coronavirus pandemic. But the Lords economic affairs committee said the Bank had become too dependent on the use of QE, which it said was widening Britain’s wealth gap by boosting asset prices. Michael Forsyth, the committee’s chairman, said: “The Bank of England has become addicted to quantitative easing. It appears to be its answer to all the country’s economic problems and by the end of 2021, the Bank will own an eye-watering £875bn of government bonds and £20bn in corporate bonds.” Lord Forsyth said the scale and persistence of QE – which was now equivalent to 40% of the economy’s output – required the sort of “significant scrutiny” the Bank had not faced up until now. “Going forwards, the Bank must be more transparent, justify the use of QE and show it’s working. The Bank needs to explain how it will curb inflation if it is more than just short term. It also needs to do more to mitigate widening wealth inequalities that have resulted from rising asset prices caused by QE.” The committee said during the course of its inquiry, it had become apparent that the Bank of England was widely perceived to be using QE to finance the government’s record peacetime budget deficit during the pandemic. “The Bank’s bond purchases were aligned closely with the speed of issuance by HM Treasury,” the peers’ report said. “If perceptions continue to grow that the Bank is using QE mainly to finance the government’s spending priorities, it could lose credibility destroying its ability to control inflation and maintain financial stability.” In a statement, the Bank said the pandemic had posed an unprecedented threat. “QE and the package of other measures announced over the past 18 months have lowered borrowing costs right across the economy, providing much needed support to all borrowers at a time of extreme economic stress. It is wrong to suggest that the MPC has pursued another policy, namely to finance the government’s borrowing during the crisis. The evidence does not support this assertion.” Forsyth said his committee had taken evidence from a range of experts from around the world, including former central bankers from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. “We found that central banks all over the world face comparable risks. “QE is a serious danger to the long-term health of the public finances. A clear plan on how QE will be unwound is necessary, and this plan must be made public.”

GBP reasonably stable - no expectation of an imminent rate hike

2.5%, up from 2.1%