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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by rantnrave

  1. Natwest are offering 2.89% (before tax) with no penalties / unlimited withdrawals.
  2. I was dismayed when I saw this figure and thought the MSM would be all over it as a 'return to normality' based on fundamentals of UK's economic recovery, first green shoots etc. Have to say however that the coverage hasn't been much and the articles are highlighting the obvious flaw in the sellers' approach. No doubt the Express will hype this though .
  3. Being 'a glass is half empty' type, I've thought that while arguments for a significant HPC are strong, the collective majority will somehow conspire to prevent it. However, having read some of the comments on this mumsnet thread, it's clear how little grasp of economics / bubbles / reality many folk out there actually have. We really could on be for something spectacular over the coming months...
  4. Having lived in Tokyo for a couple of years, I can highlight at least one reason why such small accommodation is more accepted over there - Japanese people do not entertain one another in their homes. The cost of eating out is far far cheaper over there than here. I used to eat out three times a week there, which I would never ever do here. It was good quality too. When I wanted to meet friends, we would just agree on a restaurant beforehand and staying there for two hours was completely acceptable. Most places had all you could drink deals and tipping is culturally offensive. Despite having several good Japanese friends, I was never invited to their homes. The only people in Tokyo who visit each other's homes are foreigners. Thus, if you're not cooking for guests, you don't need a bigger dining room or kitchen etc. I actually prefer the Japanese way of socialising if I'm honest. I'm not a great cook and meeting people didn't involve me having to tidy my apartment first. Of course, the weather there is much more co-operative for such a lifestyle (they get as much rain as we do, but mostly concentrated in five to six weeks of rainy season). The streets are also, needless to say, much safer and 'attitude' free.
  5. Read a shocker of an article in the TImes yesterday. Although it 'pushed the right buttons' in terms of highlighting the lunacy of high house prices and the unfair impact on younger generations, the underlying assumption is that hps today are where they should be based on shortage of supply etc. Tempted to email the writer and ask whether they think today's hps have a strong foundation based on good economic growth and rational lending behaviour...
  6. I haven't done too bad from changing my online savings account every year (to get the best one-year introductory offers). Even at the lowest point, I've been earning 2.4% pa after tax. I know that's slightly under RPI, but as said earlier, I'm saving to buy a house so that's the inflation figure I watch. Sure, there are better returns out there, but I find these are risk free and I have access to the cash immediately and penalty free if anything happened. Natwest are offering 2.89% (pre-tax) at the moment which is pretty good. Snapped that up now my Citibank (3%, orig 3.3%, before tax) has come to an end. Natwest is specially handy 'cos my current account is with them and I can move money around between accounts online in an instant. They even let me have the 2.89% even though I'm an existing customer (which is how it should be imo).
  7. If your savings are solely to buy a house, then that is the only inflation rate that matters. Food and fuel prices may be going up, but house prices are definitely on the way down right now. So, at the moment, you are in effect already getting a very high real rate of interest on those savings. I'm hoping to be in a similar situation in the coming years, so think about such a scenario a lot. Assuming you're not living in the SE, then 150K in cash would put you in a wonderful position right now to do some real bargaining with sellers. I reckon you might even get something advertised at 200K for 150K all cash and no chain.
  8. Getting back to topic (!), there's a printed rag about property where I live that I've only recently noticed. It's being offered for free, as plastered all over the front cover, not the usual one quid... Sign of the times if ever there was one.
  9. Yes, we're all hoping for a negative figure, but to be honest Forex Factory make predictions for each house price indicator and they end up looking foolish when the figure is published and is totally different. How many of us really expected -3.6% from Halifax? An alternative idea would be predicting the spin MSM are going to put on any negative / hype-up any positive.
  10. Not buying a house in the '90s was the worst financial decision I (n)ever made. Not buying a house in the '00s is increasingly looking like the best financial decision I ever made...
  11. 18 months ago, the number of properties coming to market fell while the amount of (misguided) buyers remained constant. I just can't see that happening this time. Buyers are vanishing faster than sellers - spooked by the cuts and knowing the banks aren't lending. If we get down to sales of 30K a month that are nearly all forced, then that is going to bring the price indices crashing down even faster than if more was on the market. That's my theory anyway - someone more intelligent than I is welcome to suggest otherwise!
  12. Hope so. 18 months of -5% per quarter might make it possible for us to make a cash purchase.
  13. Yes - you are right. BUT if the correction we all believe is fundamentally inevitable and overdue is actually upon us this time, then all these indices will need to start reflecting this, as was the case in the second half of '08.
  14. Looking ahead at the Forex Factory, there's a RICS sentiment report out tomorrow. Next week is a Rightmove survey. After that comes Nationwide's latest figures at the end of the month. If, big if, these all go our way then it could be a very interesting month. Hang on in there.
  15. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-15920378.html This has been on the market for two years plus. In '08 the seller wanted 95K and turned down 85K. By 2009, the seller saw their mistake and dropped the price to 85K. This year it went down to 70K. Now it's heading to auction (see link below) for 55K. Doubt it will fetch that either... http://www.findaproperty.com/displayprop.aspx?edid=07&salerent=0&pid=7228019
  16. Patter of small feet came along. His parents live out of town in the countryside and have a small cottage on site that's just become empty and they could live in, be closer to family and babysitters etc. They've (original couple) looked at renting their house out to make the move, but are still on a high fixed rate deal that rent is unlikely to offset. Panic bought at the peak imho. Can't help but think if they'd spent any time beforehand on this site they wouldn't be in this position. It's not a problem for them to stay put so it's not exactly a sob story.
  17. This all assumes that sellers could take the financial 'hit' if they absolutely had to. What about those who managed to get on the ladder in 07/08 with a 115% mortgage - ie, they are already in negative equity. I know of such a couple and the minute they worked out a minor price fall had put them in n/e they took their house straight off the market and accepted that they were going to be there for a while. Thing is, they're intelligent people too!
  18. Some friends are in this situation - married couple, just 30, each earning 25K. Where we live, 2.5 times that will give them somewhere reasonable. 3.5 and you're doing very well - which is what they have done. I have to be careful not to lose the friendship when we discuss hps. They are keen to snap up more properties, see them as a good investment and in their position, especially without kids, I can see why they think that (that plus a dose of msm spin). They own two properties and are housesitting their parents place at the mo. One of them they had to kick the tenants out for not paying for three months. They had also absolutely trashed the place. The other place they are trying to find tenants for, but without luck (looking to get too high rent imo). They're also not benefitting from low irs because they fixed rates for an extended period when it looked like they were going up. Absolutely none of this has deterred them whatsoever. Housing bubble? As far as they're concerned their never was one and there certainly isn't one now. At the same time, their situation is boosted by the fact that they still got their uni education relatively cheap. In the future, a young couple both with average salary jobs are likely to have a heck of a lot of student debt which will undermine their finances. That argument is rarely aired, even on this site and could be a big drag on FTB's getting a foothold even if prices come down substantially.
  19. Coming to these shores soon? Absolutely. I've already said on this site that soon after the Fear stage will come 'The Blame Game'.
  20. It's actually a lot less difficult than people think. I work for a charity organisation and developed their media strategy on a budget of zero. I send out press releases once a month that are picked up by at least three media each time. What's needed is for someone to trawl through the websites of MSM outlets and gather email contact details - as many as possible. Then, when Halifax, Nationwide etc release their monthly stats, HPC puts out a formal press release stating their take on the figures. This can be as brief as 250 words. It needs laying out in something like Microsoft Publisher so it appears in the body of an email and not an attachment (so more chance to be read). At the bottom needs to be a contact name and telephone number who media folk can get back to for further comment. Making it look professional, no typos and consistency with the contact details will build the HPC brand. After a few such releases these will be noticed as an alternative comment on the issue of house prices.
  21. And look where Mr. Kent seeks to get help beforehand! http://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/News/Story/?storyid=3599&title=Confusion_as_house_prices_plummet_by_record_amount_%E2%80%93_or_rise_slightly&type=news_features Posted By Trevor Kent on Friday 8th October 2010 12:39:28 Now look here, folk, I am just about to go on the Jeremy Vine Show on Radio 2 at about 1.15. What on earth am I going to say?!! Hope you are still selling. Big T.
  22. That's a whopping 6K off average house prices. Champagne corks are a flyin!
  23. For most of the last 15 years I consider myself to have been living the good life - made loads of great friends at uni (and no, not p*ssing it up the wall - I'm teetotal) and even stuck around to do a postgrad course. Then took a gap year with a voluntary organisation that stretched on for over four! Saw a very large amount of places, and not as a tourist. Poverty in Africa and some of Asia made me appreciate the opportunities I had (and still have). Met a great woman, married and moved to her country in Asia. Kept in touch with the voluntary organisation and they offered me a paid post back in Blighty. Felt it was right to time to return, so we made the move. During the years I've been away, house prices skyrocketed. I unwittingly picked the worst years to be away from getting on the housing 'ladder', for sure. Does that mean I regret what I've done and the opportunities I've had? Not at all! When my health fails, I'll look back on some awesome memories, knowing I lived my dreams. And if that means I had to rent all my life, so be it.
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