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rantnrave

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Everything posted by rantnrave

  1. But if you open their charts, it says the previous figure was 47K, not 44K. In which case, this would be a static figure. Somewhat confusing...
  2. It's also 8K less I'll need to borrow from the bank when I decide to buy... which isn't looking imminent.
  3. Personally, the knowledge that I haven't lost 8K of equity in the last two months has cheered me up no end
  4. I've pondered this. Autumn is traditionally a good month (so the EAs tell us) for house sales. Seasonally adjusting should therefore limit any rise and exaggerate any downturn? When will this turn around so that a fall of a grand is seasonally adjusted to a fall of 1.5%. Anybody out there more in the know here?
  5. Have you changed your status from bear to neither??? Surely you don't think that today's news makes property affordable again
  6. You must be happy at this news - weren't you thinking Nationwide was going to try and conjure up a rise? I was referring to the down 6% a year mentioned in the Mail.
  7. 'Figures published by the Nationwide yesterday show house prices fell by 0.7 per cent in October - a drop of nearly £2,400. They are now down by six per cent this year.' Where did that come from? (not that I'm complaining to see it in print!)
  8. 100K would be consistent with the 'prices need to fall 35%' figure I see quoted a lot. I just can't see hps going below the level of 2000 though.
  9. Comments at the bottom of the article are seriously misinformed!
  10. Any survey that includes the Channel Islands is going to massively distort the figures. Prices down there make London look reasonable.
  11. I think I've read this differently here. The issue is that if the seller is asking for 125K, which meets your budget, but the bank says it's only worth 100K and they'll only lend you finances for that, then you have to persuade the seller that they need to drop to 100K. And we all know how keen sellers are to drop their prices... So, yes, that might cause a panic. Similar situation happened to a friend of ours, who ended up not buying because the bank didn't agree with the valuation and wouldn't lend against it. There was also a discussion on MSE which the HPC brigade started commenting on where the buyer was indeed starting to 'panic' that the bank wouldn't lend against the value they were trying to buy at. Sorry, can't find the link.
  12. Another thought - high IRs brought about the end of the late 80s bubble. We're expecting IRs to stay low here for a while and so predict that history wont be repeated. However, I don't think lending in the 80s got anywhere as ridiculous as it did in the last decade. Will the removal of 125% and liars' loans be the cause of a similar correction this time? With high IRs, buyers can't serve the loans they have taken out. They then default and the property becomes a repo. Lots of people in this situation means house prices take a tumble due to over supply. With mortgage lending declining, buyers can only afford to buy from those who equally must sell (through debt, death and divorce). However, it is these actual transactions, rather than stubborn vendors, setting the market price. House prices take a corresponding tumble. Does that seem logical?
  13. Some of those who started reading this forum when they were young have aged considerably while waiting for a HPC! The only barrier I see to a crash is the low level of interest rates. It could be a slow grind down, so that by 2020 prices in nominal terms are the same. Sellers wont feel that they are losing value (even though in real terms they have). I will say though that this scenario is dependent on salaries rising in real terms and I don't see much evidence of that at the moment.
  14. I think you'll find it's her singing we're after...
  15. Really! And to think that I've only just graduated from HPC Newbie status. I feel honoured, given that you're about 18 gazillion posts ahead of me!!!
  16. I think the start of the bubble we're presently in is partly a result of hps being so low in the 90s. People who got burnt in the last crash were slow to return to the property market. By 2000 a head of steam had built up as the economy looked to be in good shape and confidence increased. IRs were dropped in response to the popping of tech stocks in the US (which wasn't needed because unlike the credit crunch, the UK wasn't that exposed). That drove a once in a generation bubble that should have ended in 2002. Lending beyond historical norms pushed that into a once in a lifetime bubble that was running out of steam by 04/05. The utter madness of liars loans resulted in the once in a century behemoth of a bubble we're now starting to see unwind. Allowing for the regular / non-HP RPI there has been between 2000 and now, I just can't see HPs going below nominal prices of a decade earlier, even if there is an overshoot on the way down.
  17. In the near to medium future, wont falling house prices encourage boomers who were thinking of downsizing to do it sooner rather than later? Downsizers definitely lose out during a HPC and there might be a stampede of them soon!
  18. This issue is going to be a MAJOR drag on HPs in the future. With uni the best part of a decade and a half behind, I'm wondering if that gives me the right to label indebted students as good for nothings who have no idea about real work... Students today should pull up their bootstraps and all that. When I was at uni, I worked eight days a week so I could supplement my government grant blah, blah. Soon I'll be fit to join the boomers who reckon my generation should eat out of tins so we can save 40K for a house deposit... Any students or soon-to-be students reading this, you have my sympathy. I graduated in credit (just!) and know I was bloomin' fortunate to have avoided all the tuition fees that were coming in soon after
  19. This couple come across like economic dimwits. Unfortunately they represent about 90% of people I know...
  20. Natwest are offering 2.89% (before tax) with no penalties / unlimited withdrawals.
  21. I was dismayed when I saw this figure and thought the MSM would be all over it as a 'return to normality' based on fundamentals of UK's economic recovery, first green shoots etc. Have to say however that the coverage hasn't been much and the articles are highlighting the obvious flaw in the sellers' approach. No doubt the Express will hype this though .
  22. Being 'a glass is half empty' type, I've thought that while arguments for a significant HPC are strong, the collective majority will somehow conspire to prevent it. However, having read some of the comments on this mumsnet thread, it's clear how little grasp of economics / bubbles / reality many folk out there actually have. We really could on be for something spectacular over the coming months...
  23. Having lived in Tokyo for a couple of years, I can highlight at least one reason why such small accommodation is more accepted over there - Japanese people do not entertain one another in their homes. The cost of eating out is far far cheaper over there than here. I used to eat out three times a week there, which I would never ever do here. It was good quality too. When I wanted to meet friends, we would just agree on a restaurant beforehand and staying there for two hours was completely acceptable. Most places had all you could drink deals and tipping is culturally offensive. Despite having several good Japanese friends, I was never invited to their homes. The only people in Tokyo who visit each other's homes are foreigners. Thus, if you're not cooking for guests, you don't need a bigger dining room or kitchen etc. I actually prefer the Japanese way of socialising if I'm honest. I'm not a great cook and meeting people didn't involve me having to tidy my apartment first. Of course, the weather there is much more co-operative for such a lifestyle (they get as much rain as we do, but mostly concentrated in five to six weeks of rainy season). The streets are also, needless to say, much safer and 'attitude' free.
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