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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by rantnrave

  1. If that is true, folk around where you live are a heck of a lot more clued-up than where I am. I have a colleague who can't wait to buy because they think renting is dead money. Elsewhere, a friend still thinks property is the best investment against inflation out there (even though they've become accidental landlords after moving to this area). He was absolutely gobsmacked when I told him that YoY growth figures were about to turn negative. I've considered sending him a link to this site, but he would dismiss it immediately and I might lose a good friend! It will take a plane flying the banner of falling hps to be in the sky all day everyday to change views here. Anyone who is aware that all is not rosy in the housing market shrugs it off with 'happens every year at this time and it will all bounce back in the Spring...'
  2. The missing piece of the jigsaw here is that nominally the fall is -0.6% but in their wisdom Nationwide has decided to seasonally adjust that to -0.3%. Don't recall seeing the reverse of that effect - ie, a 0.3% fall is seasonally altered and given out as a headline figure of -0.6%. Am happy to be shown evidence of this.
  3. IMO it's the credit situation. Even if the uninformed want to buy at inflated prices, as they have for most of the last decade, the banks aren't lending like they did. Put differently, the party was in full swing and someone just took away the punch bowl. People stay merry for a little while longer and then reality sets in - the women there are all ugly hoofers and the host has a shocking taste in music. *edited for extra sarcasm*
  4. They've just cut and pasted the graphs from the Nationwide release...? When they post the lifecycle of a bubble chart, then I'll be impressed (turns to watch pig fly pass window).
  5. Good point. Even more so if we take the quarterly rate which is -1.5%. That's 6% a year give or take with 4% inflation and so a drop of 10% a year in real terms!
  6. There are so many assumptions in this commonly expressed view that are clearly wrong. I'll try to summarise: * The number of buyers registering with EAs is falling faster than the number of new vendors. Thus, the number of interested buyers relative to vendors is still in the buyers' favour and moving more so. * Many vendors have deluded themselves into thinking that things will start moving again in the Spring. This is of course after a VAT rise, fuel bill hike and for most folk, a below RPI pay increase. In short, buyers will have an even harder time getting a deposit together come March than they are now. * There was an excellent comment on one discussion here recently about 'pent-up supply'. Many potential vendors have found themselves over the last two years instead becoming reluctant landlords, expecting prices to start rising again soon. How long before they give up waiting? * Banks have already admitted they don't expect the tight credit conditions to ease during 2011 - even less money is available for mortgaging lending as the banks prepare to start paying back the taxpayer bailouts. * IRs are not rising, but mortgage rates for existing borrowers are creeping up all the time as special deals end. * The BTL brigade are not going to start snapping up properties that are clearly falling, if slowly, in value. I could go on here - govt spending cuts, there being no such thing as a forced buyer but forced sellers due to 3Ds (awful thought - cold weather finishing off more elderly)...
  7. Up 0.2% and milked for all it's worth by the Daily Express. Halliwide to then be down by around 1.2% next week, leading to a flurry of headlines about 'mixed signals in the housing market'...
  8. I agree, but the sentimental value of YoY going negative is considerable. YoY falling from say 2.0% to 0.6% is a big fall. However, in terms of media attention, I think a smaller fall that moves the YoY from 0.6% to -0.1% will attract a lot more coverage.
  9. Check the Estate Agents Today website too, where they seem to have increasing amounts of time to attach each other with handbags - as I posted with this link yesterday: http://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/News/Story/?storyid=3712&type=news_features
  10. I'm getting 2.89% (before tax) with an online saving account. This is linked directly to my Natwest current account and I can move funds in or out as much and as often as I wish without incurring any penalties. Yes - I am aware that this is a rate of return less than inflation, but the savings are to buy a house at some point in the future and since they are coming down in price I am content with how things are going.
  11. So is it better to keep cash under a memory foam or normal mattress? I'm pretty much in the position you describe here. My savings are solely to buy a house, so if they're coming down in price I'm not too worried if inflation is a little higher than the interest I'm earning (which I check regularly to make sure I'm getting the best deal). Since I'm comfortable with this plan and it is working out right now, investing in anything else seems like a risk I don't want to / need to take.
  12. Is there a 'cash under the mattress' forum?
  13. Sounds like some other data we watch rather closely on this site...
  14. What other series of indices does that sound similar too...?
  15. Careful - they might think you're suggesting reductions of 0.32% and promptly comply.
  16. More than a hundred days to sell? So those coming to the market now aren't likely to get any bites until the so-called Spring bounce anyway!
  17. Yes indeed - read all about it on the EA Today site: http://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/News/Story/?storyid=3712&type=news_features I've chipped in my tuppence on the forum.
  18. Unlike house prices, which, as we all know, can only ever go up.
  19. Unless they're still thinking through Saturday's edition of X-Factor...
  20. Yes - they've subcontracted the survey out to the same lot who do the Halifax figures...
  21. http://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/1081292-OMG-I-KNOW-why-the-property-market-is-stagnant Seems the MNers have finally realised that exorbitant property prices might not be all good news...
  22. I read that to mean that of all the houses recently coming to the market, 30% of them have been lowered in prices. That is most likely to mean a third of the new instructions have come down in price by 5%, while the other two thirds haven't budged in price.
  23. That allows only one withdrawal a year without penalty though. I signed up for Natwest at 2.89% penalty free a couple of months ago, but can't find that deal being offered any more. Now it's up and running it's very handy because I can move money between this savings account and my current account which is with them instantly. Was amazed they let me open it actually since I'm not a new customer. IMO it's about time banks rewarded their longest serving customers with better rates, rather than one year bonus deals for new customers. I guess the sheeple really are daft enough to be lured in by a good one year bonus rate and then just forget to move the money out...
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