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rantnrave

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Everything posted by rantnrave

  1. Are HPs the ultimate lagging index of a recession? First the GDP figures go negative, then the job losses become evident six months on and that forces hps down even further into the future...?
  2. The pound drops and exports pick up. It's not exactly rocket science... The story here is not that this is happening, but that it took so long to show up in the figures!
  3. The German tourist may also be expecting his Euro to be worthless in the near future and thus counted his blessings even more to see them turned into Pounds...
  4. There is a winner here - the German tourist. He started with €100 and ended up with £100. Looks like the hooker also took advantage of a dumb money changer.
  5. There's no actual analysis, conclusion or predictions here IMHO. The document could also benefit from some proofreading. Both of which undermine the work really.
  6. This lack of lending adds a whole new dimension to the HPC theories. Levels of IRs, unemployment etc have all been discussed and seen in the past to have an impact on hps. How is a mortgage famine going to affect things in the next 6-12 months?
  7. The current housing market stalemate has far more to do with greedy vendors than stingy lenders. Banks are returning to lending levels that have historically been the norm. Sellers need to realise this. A house is only worth what someone is willing to pay, and in most cases, what someone is willing to pay basically means what the bank is willing to lend. Come Spring, this will be painfully obvious when the 'bounce' doesn't appear.
  8. Everything I order arrives in mysterious brown packaging...
  9. I get stuff sent to my work address, because someone will be in (unless it's a Saturday). Seems a lot of my colleagues do too. Just a thought.
  10. Depends what you mean. Dying in the sense of relocating to the virtual online world? These days, who under the age of 50 doesn't walk into a shop, find something they like, then go and find a cheaper price when they get home and browse the web... High streets will essentially become full of stores which sell products that it doesn't make sense to sell online - clothes shops (so you can try stuff on), supermarkets (especially fresh stuff), Pound shops (too cheap to add p&p to), charity shops, a token one or two banks etc. I fully expect EA 'shops' to all but disappear once a succesful online format for buying and selling houses is developed (three bed semi - add to basket?). Rightmove is a start.
  11. Can we expect your name to change to the 'Realistneither' in the coming days?
  12. We don't need to compete with Asia's booming economies. We can create all the wealth we need through HPI...
  13. Half the article is talking about more stock coming to market, which will bring prices down... If Wales is ahead on sales, perhaps that's indicative that prices there are falling faster than the rest of the country. Any thoughts here TMT?
  14. Yip. Bound to have an impact on the asking price index if nothing else!
  15. Give it a couple of hours, another coffee and you'll suddenly get some alarming flashbacks about what you did when you got home from the pub last night...
  16. From memory, such rises in the past result in much higher % increases. Shops and consumers like round number figures. Something that costs 9.99 now will be a few pence over ten quid after the rise then 10.99 by March. Exactly the same rounding up happened when the Euro countries converted prices to the new currency. This will have an impact. The VAT increase, rising cost of energy, slow but sure hikes in mortgage %s, RPI running above pay rises... It's all trickling through to put households under greater financial pressures. If IRs aren't leading to many repos, all the other factors are playing a greater and greater part. BTW, IIRC isn't the VAT rise coming in on Jan 4th, not 1st?
  17. Things really do seem to be on a knife edge right now. Either it is minor falls MoM for a little while or this is the start of 'the biggie'. No doubt that Nationwide's latest data, indicating just a 0.3% fall last month, has strengthened the argument (as they suggest) that it is just a small downward trend we're currently on, not a full blown crash. However, stripping away the 'seasonal adjustment', prices were down 0.6%. As others have said, this is a bigger downward trend than that which kicked off the last round of falls. I honestly think this farcical game that has been going on waaaaaaaaaay too long is heading for a show down in Spring. People looking to sell, and the MSM, do seem aware that prices are currently falling. At the moment this is being dismissed as the usual end of year slow down. It remains to be seen whether they are right - is this a cyclical movement or the beginning of a structural shift down another leg (only halted last time by record low IRs). When the sellers come out in Spring, we shall find out. My ¥2.60's worth is that this is the start of something bigger. The banks are holding back the ignorant masses from buying the overpriced home of their dreams. I do not think we are going to go much below 125K for the average house though. The impact of the BTL brigade and the lack of supply have to kick in at some level. I'm also not a believer in the theory that in real terms the fall is already much bigger - my salary is definitely not keeping up. As someone else has pointed out here too, I don't think the BTL lot are going to jump in en masse when hps are falling more than 5% a year. At least before Spring we can see what impact the reporting of negative YoY figures will have (assuming Cheryl Cole hasn't bought a new dress that day).
  18. Will try to squeeze a reply in here inbetween some disturbing pictures and the odd one from classic 80s movies... Any 'charity' that's giving money directly to foreign governments needs it head examined. That's the difference between official aid and NGO work. I'm in the latter sector. For what it's worth, we don't use 'professional fundraisers' either. We do work with several other UK companies to design fundraising material, get it printed etc, so we are sustaining jobs in this country too. We have a lot of projects overseas to help people better themselves - people who can only dream of anything like the life we have in the UK (despite the efforts of bankers and the previous govt, this is still a very wealthy country in comparison to most others). Donors and trust funds who give to us fully support that vision. I also receive a 'non-competitive' salary for my efforts - not a sob story, but the reason why I visit this forum!
  19. What started out as a thread about a joke has become a lot more serious and a fascinating discussion! Why should older people be asked to move to more suitable yet smaller accommodation, after having paid for the house and lived there for decades? On the flip side, why should I be receiving a much lower return on my savings in response to poor decisions made by others that I was not involved in, consulted about or approved of? I thought we were 'all in this together'?
  20. As others have also mentioned. I'm not sure that throwing more money at this problem is going to solve this tragic problem. I work for an international charity, so I think we're going to disagree here!
  21. In possibly the most morbid post for a while, and trying to keep things on topic, I do remember an eye-opening response from asking a friend who works in the pension industry whether things were quiet over the Christmas and New Year period. He said the colder it got, the more work they had administering the closure of accounts of older folk who were perishing in the cold weather. We often say on this forum that the three Ds ensure there is always a supply of property coming to the market. Is this weather one of the most tragic ways of increasing the supply of houses coming to market? Sorry if this is a cold-hearted analysis! I am not willing OAPs to freeze to death but just thought I would raise this for discussion.
  22. I agree. On other threads, my comment that the BTL brigade aren't going to snap up properties that are falling in price didn't meet with universal agreement though!
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