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rantnrave

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Everything posted by rantnrave

  1. London figures are currently masking the falls taking place around the rest of the country. Now, when they start falling... How close are we to the capitulation stage?
  2. The line they keep trundling out 'the QoQ falls aren't as big as last time' is somewhat tired. They are also lining themselves up for a humiliation - the +1.8% rise in October has kept this quarterly figure much more rosy than it should have been. Of course, that was in response to the beast that was down 3.6% the month before... IIRC Halifax don't seasonally adjust (aka fudge) data in the same way that Nationwde do. However, their YoY on figure is more complicated because it takes an average figure of 12, 13 and 14 months ago to get a number to compare to. I also notice that last months -0.1% has been revised to -0.2% .
  3. I pondered this for a while. Actually, I pay my rent with my credit card - my bank gives me points every time I use it. Of course, I pay the full amount every month (and earn interest on it before then in the online savings account I have with them at 2.89%). Every three months I gain enough points for a ten pound Amazon voucher. Am thrilled to know that this makes me "seriously financially savvy"! It's just playing the game as far as I'm concerned (FWIW, I've never missed a payment and am unlikely to do so thanks to reasonable job security).
  4. Forex Factory and many other similar sites. Normally they say the release date is "tentative" until it really is set in stone. They only give the time when it's confirmed too.
  5. Given that the November figure was just down 0.1% and we've had all the snow etc since then, I'm hoping for something greater than down half a percent this time...
  6. Maybe London will end up being like Venice. All the locals end up moving out because they can't afford to live and work there. The property ends up catering to tourists...
  7. Fascinating subject - thanks to OP. Good comments too. The smart money right now is buying shares in twigs... As a reasonably random aside, how strong is the correlation between rising fuel prices and house prices falls? No doubt it is one factor in further stretching families' budgets, but is it a 'game-changer' / final straw? The cost impact is immediate, unlike say IR rises. It's also mostly unavoidable in terms of getting to work, school runs etc. IIRC the last spike in pump prices came in 2008, around the same time HPs started tumbling. Coincidence or a sign of things to come in the near future? Just a thought for a Friday afternoon.
  8. The phenomenon of foreigners snapping up London properties is being exacerbated by Sterling's weakness. Hopefully even a token rise in IRs will give the Pound a boost and make overseas' investors in London property the jitters.
  9. But they don't factor it into the mix and therein lies a big part of the problem of HPI. IRs should have gone up as soon as prices started going mental in the early part of the last decade. Of course, the moment present housing figures are put back into the inflation equation, then Merv could put down his quill.
  10. Absolutely. The US has already done this experiment for us by giving tax breaks to the rich. Would be no surprise if that extra money simply ended up being stashed in Bermuda. The rich certainly didn't go out buying or hiring. However, if people are struggling to get by already, reduce the tax burden on them and the extra money they receive will almost certainly be pumped straight back into the economy. It's not rocket science and while it does raise certain issues, is far more preferable than exacerbating a divide between haves and have nots, which is where we seem to be heading instead.
  11. There can't have been that much data to analyse, shirley?
  12. With the one child policy in place, isn't China likely to get old before it gets rich?
  13. +1 They've been fighting rather than embracing technology. Illegal download sites still offer a far better selection of music than legal ones.
  14. Didn't one report recently compare prices over a 16-month period so they could include some price rises? Desperation tactic... A while back there was a thread about whether houses have delivered much of a return above inflation over the last decades. Taking into account mortgage interest and maintenance, the returns prior to 2003 were minimal and not much different from savings accounts. In real terms, I don't believe we're too far off 2003 prices now anyway.
  15. I thought yesterday's mortgage figures rise was rumbled as people mostly switching to new deals before a possible IR hike?
  16. From my understanding, December is traditionally a weak month for house prices. To smooth out such fluctuations, a seasonal adjustment factor is taken into account. Thus, in this case, a small nominal fall actually became a headline increase. The govt does the same with unemployment figures where, for example, less construction workers are employed in winter. This, in theory, makes it easier to spot real trends rather than seasonal one. To be fair though, I am being incredibly generous to Nationwide. It was shocking to see how they spun a nominal 0.4% fall into a positive figure the other way and fed that to the media who, as expected, lapped it up. I am hoping, possibly naively, that coming nominal falls in traditionally strong periods (eg spring) will then be reported as even greater falls. We live in hope...
  17. IIRC Nationwide doesn't seasonally adjust (aka 'fudge') the figures in the same way Halifax does. It does however employ a strange average of the three months from 12-15 months ago to decide the YoY figure.
  18. ...since they were going up this time last year, even a flat figure will move YoY further into negative territory - this could make for some bearish media coverage!
  19. I certainly think that around the turn of the century, when CD prices dropped, music firms started taking a lot less risk and churned out ever more formulaic radio-friendly stuff. Sure, online piracy has cost both the movie and music businesses massively. However, at the time when illegal downloads were taking off, cinemas and film distributors weren't pressured into lowering their ticket and video/DVD prices in the same way that music companies were for CDs. My opinion anyway. Perhaps I'm trying to find an excuse for why I find most stuff in the charts so bland and lacking in inspiration / talent. Must be getting old...
  20. Think of it this way, what would happen if any major technology company were forced to cut its R&D budget to a minimum? If Apple had been pressured ten years ago to cut the costs of its products, would we have iPods, iPhones, iPads and the like today?
  21. I blame the demise of HMV on the Spice Girls... No, really. In the 90s the UK had a vibrant music scene that was respected (and made big bucks) globally. Then a bunch of 20 somethings in short skirts proved that you could manufacture and mass market music without needing fingers on the pulse of the underground scene. The result is obvious - the quality of music has gone more and more downhill. You don't need to find good singers - with the right software, any human element in singing can swiftly be removed. Think all modern music sounds the same? It has been digitally altered to sound the same! Who even needs to write songs any more? Some bloke from the pub circuit can perform cover versions of older hits, win X-Factor and sell more than any 'proper' artist. The other nail in the coffin here was decreasing the price of CDs - yip, lowering the price prevented the music business taking any risks on new talent. Only artists that produced an instant return, ie, very consumer friendly, were given contracts. Of course, HMV was never cheap. They always seemed to have a Sale on, which would normally equate to 10% off CDs of yesterday's boy band and Now compilation. Other than that, their stuff was top dollar. I've long since sourced music online. However, most of the stuff I'm into isn't covered by the selection (obviously made by middle of the road AOR types) at iTunes. Is it illegal to download music when no paid service offers it???
  22. According to the BBC (that completely non-biased source of house price information), most of the increase was due to remortgaging. Is that likely to be people coming to the end of one deal and scrambling to find an alternative?
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