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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by rantnrave

  1. Still, 1.4% over the next six months is hardly epic (more in real terms though). I'm hoping for at least 1.4% down in the next month's worth of data!
  2. Is there any chart, graphs or tables of this MoM? I wonder if this particular measure is the ultimate in lagging? Would love to see the dead cat bounce on there now coming to an end, only for the purpose of bringing a smile to my frozen cheeks...
  3. That, is a very good point. Fortunately, Daily Express readers don't have to worry about this problem. Seems their memories can only last 24 hours, maximum. BTW, over on the EAtoday site I linked to earlier, they are bemoaning the fact that this country's media give overtly doom filled coverage of HPs .
  4. The fact that this subject has only come up now the indices are all showing real and sustained falls smacks of utter desperation. The EAs themselves are now discussing the need for regional not national reporting: http://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/News/Story/?storyid=3824&type=news_features
  5. I can't, but the biased media, hordes of greedy vendors, the Bank of England, the government and a whole range of other VIs are going to give it a good try!
  6. Yes, but Spring is coming and everything will be alright then! You just watch HPs bounce...
  7. I make 5 grand on 165K a decline in real terms...? Of course, it's the trend we're looking for. On Monday, according to the Daily Express headlines, HPs had fallen 3% in four weeks: My link So, 5,000 turnaround in 48 hours is pretty good I reckon. Shame Sibbers hasn't provided us with his wisdom in the comments. Indeed, as those posting there have noticed, the Express only allows comments on articles that show a rise...
  8. That's because we were starting from an even more massive bubble. It was so ridiculous that when prices finally started coming down in 2008, even homeowners thought that was a good thing because they had continuously been going up so much. Those days didn't last long...
  9. I've seen a few such stories on the Guardian site. As usual, Oreally makes some really valid points in his comments though - makes me think he is a HPCer moonlighting on the Guardian site. Anybody know?
  10. Aye, 'tis I. The posters there are actually quite good at discussing the issues themselves. There have been some fascinating exchanges about bringing down vendors' expectations, affordability etc on the site in recent weeks. Unfortunately, when HPCers join any of the debates, the EAs become very defensive. A descent into mudslinging normally follows. I only step in, at what I hope is a polite level, when priced out FTBs are being described as binge drinking losers who can't save a deposit, or HPC comes in for an unwarranted attack. I think an intelligent discussion / exchange between posters from both sites would be very worthwhile. Many of today's EAs have only operated in a market where prices rise. The idea that they can make money, more money, out of falling prices seems to get lost. The older, more experienced EAs do pop up from time to time and point this out. I do think EAs should stop fearing a fall in prices and embrace the extra sales opportunity it brings. It would also be good for many who post there (and apparently have a bit more time on their hands than usual right now) to visit this site and get an understanding of the mindset that frustrated, priced-out FTBs and others have toward what has happened with UK HPs.
  11. No-one else seems to have picked up on this latest report... • In October UK house prices increased by 5.5 per cent over the year but were slightly lower over the month (-0.1 per cent, seasonally adjusted). • The average mix-adjusted UK house price was £209,466 (not seasonally adjusted). • Average house prices were 0.2 per cent lower over the quarter to October, compared to a quarterly increase of 0.5 per cent in July (seasonally adjusted). • Average prices increased during the year in Wales (9.1 per cent) and in England (5.9 per cent) but were lower in Northern Ireland (-8.9 per cent) and in Scotland (-0.4 per cent). • Prices paid by first time buyers were 3.4 per cent higher on average than a year earlier whilst prices paid by former owner occupiers increased by 6.3 per cent. • Prices paid for new properties were 4.4 per cent higher on average than a year earlier whilst prices for pre-owned dwellings increased by 5.6 per cent.
  12. Taken from the horse's mouth... Following an alarming trend, the typical (median) Time on Market for unsold properties has risen a further 17 days since last month and now stands at 135 days. Meanwhile the average (mean) Time on Market is also up 15 days to 207 days.
  13. Taking this to its logical conclusion - EAs that are only offering overpriced property are going to go bankrupt. Not the best business model really...
  14. Trying to steer things back to the OP... Last month, this survey was +0.3% and the sensationalist blurb they have put out today about hps being higher than at any stage in the last two years was pretty much equally true then. The fact is, this month is 0.2% growth. The nominal figures involved are minimal and the trend, which is just about there, is the rate of growth slowing and about to become negative. They have nailed their true colours to the mast with the ridiculous and overly optimistic blurb though. If this report does include cash sales and thus capture the very top end of the market, then this data confirms what the last Land Registry figures showed - the lower end of the market is being affected most and will ultimately pull the top end down. Halifax had figures that bucked the trend for a couple of months. Anyone remember the rather spectacular figure they conjured up to correct that in September -3.6%! This report is also the one that probably gets the least media pick up too (it's not given a mention on Forex Factory either).
  15. Herein lies the problem. There's enough in place for modest falls, but realistically what is going to push them off a cliff? IRs will stay low, unemployment isn't rocketing, the job cuts aren't as bad as feared. Sellers on the whole seem prepared to sit this out, without wanting to acknowledge that banks aren't lending the levels like they used to in order to support peak prices. The HPC is in stealth mode, going on beneath the radar. Ina few years time prices will be marginally lower in nominal terms but 20% down in real terms. This will allow sheeple the face-saving delusion that they didn't lose money on their 'investment'. Transaction volumes will still be at historically low levels. This will result in there being less EAs around (hip hip hooray) and the madness that was property speculation will be long over. People who have sat rather than sold will come to see their property as a home. That's my €0.0238759 worth.
  16. You may have just won HPC post of the day...
  17. To her credit, she does join in the discussion in the comments! Makes for fascinating reading. This comment she made below looks ominous though. What data is out tomorrow? Dare I suggest that once you actually become homeowners, you won't be so keen on prices falling - at least not for the first couple of years or so until you've paid off some of your mortgage and are out of danger of negative equity? Several of my colleagues also need house prices to fall so they can buy their first home - we are all keeping our fingers crossed for them. But in the meantime I'm afraid that whoever reports the house price figures ( there's another one out tomorrow and I can absolutely promise you won't like that one) will simply reflect what different interested and knowledgeable parties say. I'm afraid I've got to concentrate on annuities now - looking forwards to our chat tomorrow.
  18. With each new set of data, Halifax and Nationwide usually revisit the previous months figure and often there is an adjustment. This is not rectified in the tables on this site though - that's maybe why the numbers don't add up. Any mods out there who can look into this?
  19. Agreed. Annoyingly, once that drop disappears from the quarterly figures, then statistically the three month rolling figure will likely start going positive. Lies, damned lies and...
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