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House Price Crash Forum

rantnrave

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Everything posted by rantnrave

  1. Those on the EA Today site have been making the same point. Now the various HP surveys are all tanking, they want to move to regional ones...
  2. Remove the merchandise until Spring, when everything will suddenly and magically be better for selling...
  3. Shame the graph covers such a long time period - bunches everything up. Would like to see something similar for the last five years.
  4. I wonder if we could come up with a way to 'VI adjust' these figures in the way that the Halliwide surverys are seasonally adjusted. Any VI prediction of a fall should be multiplied by four, any prediction of a rise should simply have a minus figure in front instead etc.
  5. If we were to make a graph of mortgage approvals of say the last 20 years, figures for the naughties would clearly be above average. How much would we need to undershoot now to get back to that average? What I'm asking is if there is a point when the low approvals we see now have offset the excesses of couple of years back. Anybody have any ideas?
  6. Count me in that number. More people welcome to join me!
  7. Not quite there yet, but nearly...
  8. There are several flaws in this thinking - I believe that the number of those registering an interest to buy is falling faster than those who decide not to sell. Furthermore, there was a really great point made a couple of weeks on this site by someone I can't remember (sorry) about the amount of pent-up supply there is out there - accidental landlords, people who have delayed and delayed selling so they can get a peak price that wont be back for years or even decades. How long will they keep holding out? Also worth considering is the number of people who have taken their property off the market to try again in the Spring when "things will be better"
  9. Since this seems so obvious to even the likes of my ill informed self, how come we are the only ones predicting this?
  10. Like nature, markets abhor a vacuum. As an example, YoY a lot of HP indices are showing pretty much no change for 2010. That doesn't mean prices haven't fluctuated - it's been a heck of a rollercoaster ride. In late spring some were suggesting up 10% YoY!
  11. So is having IRs at 300 year lows to prop up the experiment of moving away from 3x salary...
  12. Spring time is going to be very very interesting. A lot of sellers are looking at what's happening to HPs now and trying to blame it on seasonal factors. Many are holding out for the Spring when they hope prices will pick up as they have done in previous years at that time. However, as we all know, the rise in VAT, fuel bills, below inflation pay rises (and possibly an IR increase) is making Spring look a decidely worse time to try to sell. Still, people will hope for something magic to wave all that away and as the number of properties coming to market increases again then I think the crash will begin in earnest!
  13. This one's laughable - they got the outcome right but the description all wrong! National Association of Estate Agents The market will be hugely dependent on how much lending will be made available. House prices could remain flat, or in some markets possibly drop slightly, for the first six months, before picking up again and remaining stable in the second half of the year.
  14. There's a lot of 'experts' currently calling the housing market for 2011. Does anybody have details of what they were saying this time last year?
  15. I have heard that the term 'bonus' is a little (only a little) misleading in that those in line for bonuses actually have a pretty standard basic pay without them. In short, bonuses form a much higher % of top bankers' pay than we might think. Doesn't mean I actually agree with the whole bonus culture and risktaking, moral hazard etc etc.
  16. Put differently, the actual figures in October might have been 44,499 and in November 44,501. It's not only the media and VIs that can spin numbers!
  17. Ah yes, that'll be the weather, seasonal dip etc... Oh, hang on, these are NOVEMBER's figures. So December's looking peachy already!
  18. When I worked in an international office in Germany, all the Brits there rushed out to buy houses as soon as they arrived (especially since they thought the prices were at bargain level and certain to rocket up). Those that moved on or back to the UK had real headaches trying to sell them later... Imagine being an accidental landlord while living in a different time zone! The market is so different over there. Your average Joe (or Joachim) really does want to build and not just buy their own place. Until very recently, the government gave generous sums of money to people to do just that. Renting is not a sign of being a failure (in the same way that a being a tradesman isn't either). People only buy when they are sure they are going to settle somewhere and speculation is far less common. The result, much lower high prices and an economy that brushed off the Credit Crunch... I really do prefer the German system when it comes to housing. When it comes to things like being flexible and sleeping in, they suck though... (in case anyone hits reply and tells me to bog off back there then!).
  19. Merv's credibility is not in doubt or on the line here... We passed that stage a long time ago. EDIT - that's a pretty poor posting to make the big 200 really. Will aim for better next time there's a big number coming up.
  20. Well if rents are going up, be sure to get your money's worth folks. I've got somebody round right now fixing a leaky radiator, at no extra cost to myself I might add .
  21. I'm not so sure. I think the VAT rise has given them the perfect excuse to explain rising inflation figures and why no action needs to be taken to fight it. All Merv and co had to do was hang on until Jan and they've pulled it off. I'll risk going on record that a rise in IRs is at least six months and more than likely a year away.
  22. Still, 1.4% over the next six months is hardly epic (more in real terms though). I'm hoping for at least 1.4% down in the next month's worth of data!
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