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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by rantnrave

  1. 1 hour ago, Timm said:

    The general consensus view seems to be that the markets have suddenly decided that inflation (and therefore interest rates) are about to be reported as much higher in the UK than expected. This could be because the expected CPI figure of 4.1 is going to come out a lot higher than forecast. The next CPI figure comes out this Wednesday, so a leak is possible.


    Last time round we had major bouts of QE, the official inflation figure hit 5% and the BoE was unmoved. Presumably, these latest rumours suggest we're on a fast track to exceed that soon.

  2. 'Last time this happened was March 2007'. Over the next 12-18 months, this level of price rises of course levelled off and reached a plateau. What followed was a really dull period of static prices...

    Alternative take on the data - with so little stock coming to market, EAs are falling over themselves to overvalue the most in order to win instructions. This is, after all, an index of initial asking prices.

  3. Capitalism in this country died when the banks were bailed out. What should have been a significant house price collapse then was staved off by massive money printing and wave after wave of government intervention. We've had a version of crony capitalism since then - with a corresponding misallocation of economic resources and zombified businesses kept alive by ultra low interest rates. Moral hazard abounds.

    When I see reports that today's younger people are massively against capitalism, I think it gets lost that if the banks had not been bailed out in 2008, by now the relationship between hard work, earnings and property prices might have been restored. Didn't Iceland protect retail deposits, let the banks collapse, lob a few bankers in jail to make a point, endure a couple of years of hardship then bounce back stronger?

    Capitalism has always had an element of creative destruction. Business enterprises have always run the risk of failure, and the resources they take up then being reallocated to more profitable initiatives. Never has capitalism been about everybody winning all the time, and anyone in danger of losing receiving a state bailout. That is however where things seem to be at today.

    A separate question is whether that necessary destructive element and the short to medium term hardship it inflicts is compatible with democratic cycles of five years or less. Increasingly, politicians in this country and elsewhere don't seem to think it is. The Chinese authorities of course don't have to worry about such issues.

  4. In the aftermath of the '08 Credit Crunch, QE was tried and resulted in a brief uptick of inflation to 5%. That has given the BoE and others the false belief that they can get away with printing their way out of an economic slump. In reality, I think what happened then was that low wages in China, combined with low wages for EU workers here, kept the inflation genie in the bottle. We could however be about to see a more typical outcome to money printing - ie, what many thought might have happened last time.

  5. Gove is in charge of preserving the Union, levelling up and housing. They are all very much with an election in mind - keeping the Scots on board, delivering tangible benefits to Tory converts in the Red Wall etc. The communities role is a result of the recent Lib Dem by-election victory. Essentially Gove is to water down recent building permission plans so as to not allow a Lib Dem revival.

  6. Liked this quote:

    UK house price growth slows but supply-demand imbalance widens – Property Industry Eye

    Lucy Pendleton, at estate agents James Pendleton, firmly believes that the “froth has come off” the housing market. “A reality check was probably needed nationwide, and it’s London that is probably more ready to take its medicine,” Pendleton added. “Vendors in the capital have been forced to compose themselves over the past month and more sensible asking prices will ultimately help to underpin demand and transaction levels as we move into 2022.”

  7. 11 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

    And yet the ONS 5% drop from last month didn't even make the Your Money section of their website.

    They are now one of the most biased proponents of the HPI forever mantra, pretty disgusting really from our once respected national broadcaster.

    Just for fun I googled their mission statement and number 1 is:

    1. To provide impartial news and information to help people understand and engage with the world around them.


    The Guardian's take is a contrast:
    UK house price growth slows as end to stamp duty holiday looms | Housing market | The Guardian

  8. 7 minutes ago, byron78 said:

    I think they will.

    I'd give it another 18 months before anyone working class who voted for BoJo realises they haven't just been had, they've been lied to and treated like complete idiots.

    The thickest ones won't of course, but you suspect a great many of the unwashed will work it out pretty shortly.

    Nobody will give a monkeys about kneeling (or pretending it'll usher in a new Marxist dawn because they can't possibly be a bit racist can they?) when they can't afford shelter, food, or fuel.

    There's work out there. But no one can afford to move to find it or pay to train to get it either (2K+ for an HGV license and training currently).


    I think we're actually moving more to a style of voting preferences as seen in the US - low-skilled people in towns voting right of centre, educated city types voting left of centre.

    From what I understand, folk in the Red Wall are very patriotic and proud of the UK too. Labour under Keir Starmer is perceived as almost being ashamed of the country.

  9. Labour in its current guise comes across as the party for the metropolitan, remain-voting woke folk. No surprise really given that the architect of Labour's last manifesto proposal to have a second referendum - which cost them so dearly in the Red Wall - was some bloke called Keir Starmer, who represents a constituency in the capital.

    Unlike the Tories, Labour don't throw their leaders under the bus until they have lost an election (or resigned anyway). Overturning the current Tory majority in the next election looks like a massive task too...

    I wish labour would get back to its roots - supporting workers. This would mean recognising that low skill immigration drives wages down, clamping down on benefits for the workshy and delivering policies towards ensuring that the average worker on an average salary could afford the average house price.

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