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House Price Crash Forum

moody frog

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Everything posted by moody frog

  1. Demand and the lack of investment over the last three years !
  2. It has a lot to do with where you choose to live......live in the catchment area of a good state school every town has one but you pay a premium for the house or cheaper house in a zone of a run of the mill school and use the often substantial saving on the bricks and mortar to pay the fees for private education. Theres often 100k off a difference in price from one side of the street to the other depending on the catchment.
  3. Err no...her husband is a contractor and effectively lost his job. Hope you gloating over the misfortune of others are touching wood The article didn't mention if there was any equity left after the sale, why assume there wasn't ?
  4. If you'd posted the rest of the text.....it states that she sold the house and now is in rented accomodation ......... A personal tradegy for the lady in question I'm sure but lowering yourself to gloat over a partial quote is pretty juvenile, dont you think ?
  5. Used to work for Shell.....dreadful company to work for, if the oil didn't flow under its own pressure theres no way Shell could make it happen. Thirty managers all back stabbing involved in every decision, a total dinosaur................the new man is shaking it up and the share price is certainly improving but I'd not recommend them as an employer......dreadful low rates as well.... Conversation with an agent last week........Me: whats the rate ? Agent: well.....err....its x (x being about 15% lower than my current rate) Me: you're joking aren't you ? Agent: no its Shell everone wants t
  6. Ageed but it comes back to the game of musical chairs again, most people will just stay put.......the other poster re. the elasticity of thf the housing market summed it up nicely. People are also less inclined to move when their status quo is under threat perceived or real.
  7. The collective belief may have changed in 2008........but how many home sales have their been since then ? Most people may have changed their beliefs but they didn't rush out to sell their home. Everyone needs somewhere to live and thats what makes the housing market different from other assets......you don't need shares in M+S or a few ounces of gold. Its a fundamental aspiration of humans to have the best cave.
  8. The few true forced sales, are currently snapped up quickly, the only thing that would drive a crash is if there were no buyers for forced sales. There is a lot of wealth out there at the moment looking for a return. How many of those true forced sales are flipped ?
  9. I take the point that many of the people that desire to buy do not have the ability to do so, therefore you are correct they are not pent up buyers in the current situation of affordability wrt mortgage availability. However although I desire a ferrari I dont have the where with all to buy one, however, should the price drop I would then be competing with the others that also desired a ferrari.......hence the desire creates a price floor. Whereas only some people desire a ferrari, everyone needs a roof over their head. The people that bought at the peak are not the only people with a ho
  10. The fact that we are all in agreement that there are pent up buyers says it all really. I agree that pent up buyers have no choice, but to save........as to the sellers most, as in the overwhelming majority, are under no pressure what so ever to sell and can choose the timing of their sales if they ever indeed sell (we all need a roof over our head afterall), it certainly won't be the pent up buyers that dictate the market. Who in their right mind is going to crystalise a loss unless they have to...... Politicians are doing everything possible to have a soft landing, they want to keep the
  11. Wishful thinking. There are certainly many pent up buyers but pent up sellers ? The stand off will no doubt continue ...........forced, as in truley forced sales are so rare they virtually no impact on the majority of people who regardless of the majority opinion on here have no need to sell.
  12. As always with every correction the swing to controlled responsible lending from madness has gone too far when high earners in secure jobs with a decent deposit cant buy their own place. Possibly some good news for people desperate to get out of rented accomodation.
  13. Sell, why ? Theres absolutely no driver for me personally to sell which at a national level is why massive drops in value in the short term are unlikely. The maths are straightforward for a cash buyer and mortgage free owners, I paid 70k for the flat, orignally on for offers over 80k with a home report valuation of 85k, I've spent 5k to freshen it up and brought up surplus furniture from down south so fit out has cost say another grand, if I rented a similar 2 bed for a year it would cost me around 7 or 8k, so even accounting for maint and insurance etc, I'd have to see year on year falls
  14. I suppose, you're paying someone else for the privilage of using their property as well then. Given the implied bitterness there's obviously a few decisions you reget, did you miss the boat by much ? I have a wee flat in Aberdeen bought outright from a pressed seller a few months ago using cash that was effectively costing me money to bank. My main home is in the SE bought nearly 25 years ago with less than a year to run on a 270 quid a month mortgage. Yes, I'll take any financial advice you'd care to offer.
  15. In Aberdeen, public sector first time buyers were out of the city market years ago. I guess it happened in London and the south east a decade or two ago. If they are owners, they bought a decade ago or are mortgaged way beyond comfort. Hourly rate comparisons.......the bulk of the employees are minimum wage or slightly above, in a town where tiny studio flats in the worst parts of town went over 50k at least 7 years ago and where an experienced engineer is currently making between 500 to 600 quid a day ! To date, there have been negligable head count reductions up here, the spending review
  16. I cant see that there will be any spectacular falls regardless of wishes of the life renters on here, the government policy is clear that the housing market will be allowed to correct slowly to do otherwise would not be in anyones interest in the short term. Many public sector, soon to be unemployed/unemployable will have been renting anyway due to the low wages their non-productive jobs command. Stagnation and a slow real term decline due to inflation is my bet.
  17. Well.......no crash in the North East apparently with the oil industry picking up momentum again after a quiet 2 years, in my engineering speciality personnel day rates are back up near to peak with a busy 2011 forecast according to the head hunter calls. http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/2050638 House prices rising by nearly £1,000 a month North-east bucks national trend to record increased annual sales By Ryan Crighton Published: 13/12/2010 House prices in the north-east are rising by nearly £1,000 a month despite falls in the rest of the UK. Latest official figures rele
  18. I good friend of mine missed out on a house in Clifton Road which had a closing set at midday today. No other house in the area has sold over valuation for ages and closing dates were very rare. Today out of 6 noted interests there were only 3 bids yet his bid of just over 10k above the valuation of 360k was third ! His solicitor said he was at least 5k behind the winning bid.
  19. I would suggest that the rise in prices is directly related to the improving local jobs market. There has been a marked increase in oil related activity over the last few months, I'm an engineer, oilcareers were typically sending me a list of 5 or 6 broadly suitable jobs a day, now its in the teens and often over 20. I understand from various collegues that its the same across the patch and that many of the North Sea oil opcos have a backlog of work which is getting/now has budget approval. The glory days of 06/07 are still some way off but the rate squeeze is defo over.......well heres h
  20. I dont believe the flat upstairs will rent for 695 a month, but it is being advertised at that at the moment. Torry two beds are typically in the order of 600-630 a month max, they are bound to get market resistance to nearly 700 a month. Aberdeen rental yields for flats I understand are in the order of 6 %, if I ever rented out the flat I've bought, not planning to but you never know, the gross yield based on 10/12 rental would be just over 8% which I'd be more than happy with given that it virtally costs me money to save, if you get my drift.
  21. Needed somewhere cheap...........as I have my home elsewhere, not interested in schools etc, its in the cul de sac end of Menzies road, reasonably quiet, ok condition. Better value than the travel lodge or 100 a night serviced studio flats given I'll be in town for at least another year. Solicitors advice was that the valuations are meaningless given the low volumes, that big houses, 400k plus where sticking but that nice granite flats were still selling but with more reasonable expectations. He also confirmed tht that offers wont be accepted without finance being in place and that unless y
  22. After a number of serviced flats and much looking finally took the plunge as my contract in Aberdeen has been extended, Menzies Road, two bed flat, overs over 80, valuation report said 80 but my offer of 70 (cash purchase) was accepted last week. Slightly smaller, better deco flat upstairs was sold in december, offers over 98 on a 98 valuation sold for 95 and is now being advertised for 695 a month...... It may well be that vendor expectations are becoming more realistic.
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