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House Price Crash Forum

wave

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About wave

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    HPC Poster
  1. The shame is, investing in housing would solve both, housing and unemployment issues. I agree austerity is necessary where there is waste and spenditure does not generate value. However investing in needed infrastructure, would help to generate growth. UK housing bubble is different than in other countries. All of them had as common factor mortgage availability but in UK (especially in some areas) there is a housing shortage. While in Spain, for example, would not help building more houses to get out of recession, in UK it would be different.
  2. True about some SSTC coming back but also those going into SSTC again. Probably some of the properties SSTC will come back but I see like demand is increasing even if the cannot complete. What I completely agree is with the fact that there is a lot of “No Chain” probably due to people needed to sell or downsizer. Having a look to the decoration of the properties is easier to see a big percentage of 4 bedrooms are old people. In the case of the two offers I did both “needed” to sell. One was due to a divorce and the other one due to moving abroad. Anyway they managed to hold for a closer offer to asking price. If they haven’t MEW their mortgage should be pretty small so not a lot of financial pressure.
  3. I think something is happening and the market is staring to move fast. Unlucky I am seeing a lot of activity in the last month. Most of the properties I was following (Kent) have gone to SSTC. I put 2 offers in two houses that have been in the market for more than 6 months and both were discounted. I offered 500k on 575k asking price both which was rejected. This week both properties have gone SSTC this week It is true volumes are very low but also properties available. If the stock does not increase I am loosing hope on a HPC for a while, if it ever happens I do not know what trigger this change. Maybe sellers are accepting lower offers they received before or maybe people is worried about a financial collapse and are putting money on houses but unlucky the market is moving in the opposite direction I was hoping. We have lived one of the worst financial crises and London didn’t have big drops so every day passes people feels more confident about buying in London even with the current economic uncertainty.
  4. no because in London I have to pay nursery1k / month per kid and both have to work
  5. not sure London has a higher median income. I think it depends what you do for living. I think in some professions you could earn the same or even more than in London.
  6. Some times I think I should leave London http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31761181.html?premiumA=true
  7. Another example: Listed today: 625k http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-36543089.html Listed until August: 595k http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30363946.html?premiumA=true Listed until November: 575k http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-34849655.html?premiumA=true The new PB feature to list similar properties is very useful
  8. Do they start in April or have started on 01/01/2012??
  9. if that is the case that means that there is higher demand even at current prices if the sentiment improves
  10. There is no sign the rates are going up anytime soon. Actually 10 years bond yield is going down. We have seen 5% inflation rates without rate increases so we do not know where the trigger is. Maybe the BoE is happy to keep interest rates at current levels with inflation rates up to 7%... Also inflation rates seems to be moderating now.
  11. Do you have this data so I can update the chart? Anyway the chart already shows 30 years, not sure the 60s will represent how the world is now. Even if that happens again we may have to wait decades to see it.
  12. I am agreed with this, but I could not find such information. True but the information from Nationwide is for FTB so it is valid as the payments a FTB has to do at the beginning. The inflation comment it is true but maybe the disposable income (after basic needs) is even higher now than what it was in the past with higher inflation rates. The original chart shows the UK data. Below I have added London and I have increased the rate to 3+ BoE so this has a higher impact where rates are low than when they are high. The Price to Earnings is coming from http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm As you can see there currently London has a Price to Earnings of 6.39. Let’s assume a household where both earn about 25k. This would give an average house price of 320k ( I think it is quite fair estimation). A FTB with a mortgage of 3.5%, 80% LTV would pay £1.278 per month so £15.347 per year. This is 31% of their annual salary and that is what the chart shows. I always believed prices should go down but I am starting to think this won't happen without rates increases. Taken this risk is what is stopping me to buy at this moment but not affordability. On the other hand we could stay with low rates for decades….
  13. In another post it was discussed about the best way to measure affordability and therefore houses fair value. I think P/E is a good indication but we also should consider the interest rates and therefor how much of the annual salary goes to the mortgage. Nationwide P/E shows: Using this information together with BoE rates and the following assumptions: Mortgage rate = BoE + 2% LTV = 80% Years= 25 The results are interesting: Considering this I think we won't see important prices drop without an increase of rates.
  14. I have found very interesting some of the comments mentioning that P/E adjusted by rates would be a nice chart. I have spent some time playing with Nationwide P/E ratio information and BoE rates and have done a ratio to calculate payment / annual salary. The assumptions used are: Mortgage rate = BoE + 2% LTV = 80% Years= 25 The results are interesting: Considering this I think we won't see important prices drop without an increase of rates.
  15. I am surprised some people are waiting for 15-20%. Is it worth to wait for that? In illiquid market like housing it is not difficult to find opportunities 10% below market price. If that is the case I am not sure it makes sense to wait for an additional 5 – 10% drop that maybe is compensated by higher rates .I think waiting makes sense only for drops at least 30%.
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