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About waferthin

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    HPC Newbie
  1. What blatantly obvious ramping. Though to me 2200% seems like terrible returns if that is the absolute best you could do making all the right moves for 18 years. If you magically picked the best performing stock every day for 18 years, your returns would be in the order of millions of percent.
  2. waferthin

    My Str

    Can't help but think I have missed the boat on gold, and there has to be a risk it will go the way of oil - in 2007 they were talking about $200 barrels the way people talk about $2000 ounces now. Not sure the missus would go for it, she will see it as gambling. Which it is, to an extent.
  3. waferthin

    My Str

    Just sold my house - well, SSTC, but they are cash buyers, no chain either way, so it's relatively unlikely to fall through. 3 bed terrace in a fairly nice area of Berkshire. I bought in 2006 for ~£180k. Listed it for EA valuation of £200k, in my head I expected 10% less, but thought I might get lucky. After a few weeks and a couple of viewings but no offers, we decided to drop the price. Sold for £180k two days later. Looking at Property Bee that seems to be the pattern in our area: drop ~10%, sell house instantly, though most vendors seem to wait months before twigging that they need to dro
  4. I generally agree with the first point - size of deposit, the amount you need to borrow, your age, how long you are planning to stay in the house etc. all play a part. And of course the speed and length of the HPC - a 20% drop in a year makes it pretty much a no-brainer, but 20% over 4-5 years makes things less clear cut, and this part of the equation is largely guesswork. There's no shortcut - get out Excel, and do the calculations, work through some scenarios. You'll probably find even a moderate price fall (say 15% over 2 years) means you are better off renting, but your individual circumst
  5. The banks are simply returning to sensible lending levels, because they can no longer get away with securitizing the debt and passing the risk on to some other mug. Take a look at this graph of CDO issuance: Hmmm massive ramp up to 2006-2007.... I keep hearing politicians saying things like "the banks must start lending again" - they are entirely happy to lend, but on sensible levels. What the politicians mean is lending like they did in the CDO phase, but thats not going to happen. You are not going to see crazy multiples, liar loans and 100% mortgages, as its now the banks themselves th
  6. Note the weasel words "Up to", and note that they don't quote any source for the 25% claim. Could be "we asked 4 people, 1 of them got gazundered". Most likely just a made up from thin air. It is the Daily Mail after all. That aside, regardless of the percentage, any gazundering is a sign that prices are moving in the right direction, and that falling prices are entering the public consciousness; after all, if people still thought prices were going up, they would be much more likely to tell gazunderers to go stuff themselves.
  7. Professor Farnsworth: Good news everybody! Whew! Just caught up - when I started reading the thread was only 24 pages!
  8. Should you not ask for a pay cut of £51? Arbitrary cut off points are annoying - its the same with Stamp Duty, just no logic to it.
  9. I saw the title of this thread and thought "Yes, its crazy. Surely they can't keep dublin and dublin forever." Badoom tish!
  10. I think her post nicely demonstrates how utterly clueless people are when it comes to mortgages - "protecting" 3 years IO payments. She honestly believes that the money she has paid "into her house" must have gone somewhere and is slowly but surely pushing her "up the ladder". He assertion that she is a "homeowner" despite the stark financial facts demonstrates the social pressure to buy at any cost. Textbook stuff. She has locked herself in a gilded cage, and doesn't even notice the rust appearing on the bars. The fearsome thing is realising that for every one like her who posts to some for
  11. Well you are forgetting that that 20% deposit will be earning you interest while you rent. Plus the money that will pay for stamp duty and fees, that will earn interest until you fork it out. And 3 years of repairs, maintenance, water rates etc that you don't pay while renting. At the end of the day its not quite as simple a calculation as it first appears, and any calculation you do involves a huge amount of guesswork (25% over 3 years.... what about if its actuall 40% over 2 years, or 20% over 4 years, or 60% over 5 years..... your guess is as good as mine), but the bottom line is that whil
  12. That's one of those stats where the mean value tells you very little. I doubt its everyone thinking prices will drop by 0.1% - more likely 101 people thinking they will go down 10%, and 100 muppets still thinking they will go *up* 10%. I take solace that its the "down 10%" people who might actually be able to sell their houses, and that they are at least finally outnumbering the bulls.
  13. This depresses me a little. I really thought loans like this were a thing of the past. I guess it will take some hard and fast law to stop them. The only thing that might make it vaguely reasonable would be if one of them is likely to earn a lot more in the not too distant future - £15K pa as, say, a trainee lawyer or accountant is qualitatively different to £15K pa in some dead end job. Even then it presumes a rosy picture of the future that just doesn't gel with the current state of the economy. I'd be suprised if they have £100 left each month once they wake up to the reality of maintain
  14. I forgot to post here first too. Posted my situation in the "buy or rent" thread so I won't repeat it. To me, the housing bubble is like a bath where the credit tap was turned on full blast. The tap has now been almost completely turned off and the water level (prices) should be falling, but the government have been doing everything they can to block the plughole as doing anything else would see so many pulled down the hole into oblivion. Yay for metaphors! Not sure it stands up to too close an inspection, but I think it paints a realistic picture. Once the blockage (largely consisting of l
  15. This is a "hello" message as much as anything. Hello. My situation is that I bought in 2006. I knew house prices were ridiculous but was fed up with renting and had a child on the way - we moved in a couple of months before he was born. I borrowed about 3.5x salary, which has been totally manageable. Since then, my salary has just about doubled, and I'd like to upsize. I could "afford" to borrow more I'm not keen on borrowing another £100K+ just to get another 2 rooms, or a slightly nicer area or whatever. My job is also an hours drive each way, so I'd like to move closer to work. My wife is
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