koala_bear

Big issues are factories having been closed down for 6-8weeks so stock shortages and more local suppliers having no stock of certain items as they sold it all (albeit at slower rate int he last 4 months) and deliveries on new stock are a bit sporadic with longer lead times. Things will mostly sort themselves out, but it will just take a bit of time. Things should be better in general by the end of the summer holiday season, but I can see a number issues lasting through autumn and winter. (And then there are the manufacturers and suppliers who go bust.) Some (more sensible) suppliers are also ordering smaller than usual (for them) order sizes to preserve cash-flow in these uncertain times. Hence many more items cycling status between in and out of stock. Again this will resolve itself when there is more certainty on what actual sales volumes for individual products look like.

Plenty of solvent suppliers with quite a few products not available to sell to solvent customers! This is going to get worse before it gets better (customers currently chasing the last available stock from alternative UK suppliers) and the GDP figures, but when it resolves there will be a bit of a bounce. On the other hand plenty of suppliers with stock they can't sell too! When suppliers are restocking they are being much more cautious about stock levels.

Presumably they are dispatching some goods, just not all goods? Lots of retailers in number of sectors just can't get the stock of certain items and promised delivery dates to them from suppliers aren't being kept. With lots of stuff made in the far east, the number of container ships has been reduced and the ships are being slowed down to save on fuel with that adding circa 2-3 weeks in some cases. Some specialist (construction) products I've been looking at are estimated at 4months to delivery as the manufacturer tends to make a large batch every so often (rather than continuous production line) and just skipped a batch earlier this year.

It also cost way more than expected to complete hence I can't see Hammerson and co-investors not trying to recoup that from the tenants (who aren't bottomless money pits as they now discovering). Choose at least 2 of the following to get hammered: Land values Building values Business rates.

Ditto, my team has been winning a few contracts and taking some away from the usual suspects. We have been going in slightly cheaper but doing a far higher quality job with which the customers are very happy which means it is now harder for the usual suspects to win as we have effectively moved the goal posts, so it would be horrifically expensive for them to match on quality. We aren't the only ones doing this in our area currently We are also being asked to sort out the usual suspect mess on non delivery or major errors that would get JR'ed because they didn't pay enough attention. The total effort bidding experience is huge so a large cost to developing the material needed. I spoke to one of the usual suspects UK leader for the subject area last week and they were dismayed* about the moving of goal posts because they can't respond as their in house expertise is already poor and they are reliant on subcontracting the specialist bits (which is now beyond their existing sub capabilities). *team billable hours and their personal bonus for winning contracts (based on values) vaporised.

The wasn't a huge clear-out last time (focus was on financial sector) and the longer the gap between clear-outs the messier it gets. Low IRs mean the driving force for clearouts is much lower so they only really happen if a sector or firm's revenue dries up dramatically Plenty of firms (especially retail and hospitality) were already in trouble and the reality is that problems over the next 2-4 years have been condensed into this year. It will be interesting to see if the big step up in internet shopping is maintained. There will be several waves e,g, 2nd waves when firms realise that they can cut "management-type" jobs as they have fewer outlets a while after cutting outlets or some sectors where demand has dropped because unemployment has shot up. The problem for the government is that some of the deadwood may be rather close to home in party members businesses.

They are closing about half of their US shops which is included in the 900 despite being described in the article as office jobs!

Lots of older 4 engine planes going to get scrapped or for occasional type charter use so spares and servicing will be down completely e.g. RB211 family. The planes getting scrapped release huge quantities of usable spares. Also the remaining orders of some planes still being manufacturer aren't large e.g. A380 or A330. Hence the number of product families being heavily supported by Rolls will more than halve. e.g. just A350, A330neo and B777/B787 on the commercial side

Yep, the mid-market bit of the restaurant sector was in deep trouble with lots of closures and more being lined up (e.g. we are closing X restaurants but not naming the locations). Covid has just pressed the fast forward button.

e.g. https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-14/antibody-study-shows-just-5-of-spaniards-have-contracted-the-coronavirus.html "Only 5% of Spaniards have been infected with the coronavirus, according to the preliminary results of a study by the Carlos III public health institute, which took blood samples from nearly 70,000 participants...."

The Manchester study is very very poor methodology wise and even got dismembered by Sunday time journalists, best to ignore it. It doesn't align with community antibody testing studies "have been infected rates" from Italy and Spain etc.

Plenty of newspapers and TV covering articles in the Lancet and other sources: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8320113/Studies-provide-evidence-coronavirus-damages-kidneys.html

The numbers calculated from different sources and methodologies from different sources effectively don't agree with each other, we need the results of large scale community antibody testing. The UK death rate could well be higher than elsewhere because we count things differently* and probably because lots of mistakes were made in UK hospitals early on (see suggestion in the guardian that ~20% may be due to not controlling spread in hospital properly) and discharging to carehomes etc. compared to other countries. Hence it might be wise to assume a higher UK deathrate due to poor handling of the situation compared to other countries (e.g. lack of PPE). The UK hospital death rate appears to be dropping as doctors have learnt what to do better e.g. CPAP early to avoid ventilators if at all possible. A back of the fag packet type calculation will give you a potential envelope but won't say were we are in the envelope. *Only UK and Belgium counting care home death properly.

Is the unexplained variation possibly a case of errors in the floating point look up tables depending on what processors were in the machines being used? e.g.: https://software.intel.com/en-us/forums/intel-math-kernel-library/topic/777759

That will be interesting to see what it does to the market stats... Presumably low volumes so indices all over the place but to begin with only the buyers set on their dream home looking to complete and pay silly prices... Then presumably followed by lots of sales falling through as the mortgage valuations don't match expectations and desperate sellers start to list.

It would certainly be in the low 10s of billions and then there are the other costs of which such as JSA is just the start...

Boris very carefully said "some of the hospitality" industry with the visual illustration on the charts including a cinema type ticket and starbucks type ice coffee drink container. So take away or enforcably spaced? Rather than pubs as they were before???

A small first step to calibrate things is probably wise...

The Scottish case and death curves haven't been going down at the similar rates to some other parts of the UK hence it looks like R is still worse in Scotland. London is thought to have R at 0.5-0.7 currently.

The analysis also showed that the UK average large urban area case rate was 7+ times higher* than the rural/small town rate hence disaggregating multiple factors will be difficult. * 64 vs 9 cases per 100,000 people

It appears that CV has only occurred in about 30-40% of care homes rather than a huge majority, which tends to agree with your suggestion that 10% overall might be difficult The distribution of those infected seems very unevenly with lots of clusters.

From the article: "While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place." He isn't being as laisez faire a people might want to think...

For what remains after a big increase in home working...

Probably still waiting on parts from China like they were pre-shutdown, many of their customers will be in no hurry for the equipment.

A big assumption to assume most of those companies know they need to do any work!