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House Price Crash Forum


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About proprlyst

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  1. FTB assistance only for purchase of new build. Helps homebuilders not exisiting homeowners
  2. corporate tax being cut. by 2% from April. rationale being fear that corporations will move the business to other countries. I guess the only way to get a tax cut is to threaten to live the country
  3. Inflation 4.4% for Feb 2010. Remember comparing with Feb 2009 index figure which does not include that VAT recent VAT rise. In fact VAT was at 15% in Feb 2009. The cut from 17.5% to 15% was part of the fiscal stimulus package initiated by the Labour govt in Dec 2008. Now VAT is at 20%. There is some base effect that is biasing CPI uwaprds. CPI constant taxes series may provider a clearer picture. YoY CPI constant items is 2.7%. But even the CPI constant taxes is still rising.
  4. http://wp.me/pTU04-75
  5. Chart.1 shows the ebbs and flow different measures of inflation: CPI all items, CPI excluding indirect taxes and CPI at constant taxes. I wonder if this it what the BOE sees? http://wp.me/pTU04-6i
  6. I guess it MAIN street doing all the heavy lifting and not the city. Bail them out with our tax contributions and then get us to pay the budget deficit too.
  7. Hi I wrote a blog post this topic. http://wp.me/pTU04-i.I looked more specfically at the residential property cycle. What is evident is that low inflation has prevented a flood of repossessions.Also on the blog are recession comparisons with employment. Let me what you think
  8. proprlyst

    Usa Gdp

    Net exports and the consumer boost GDP. I was quite surprised by how personal consumption expenditure held up during the recession. Amazing how much private residential investment has fallen.
  9. Maybe it was not bad weather that caused this http://wp.me/pTU04-5Q
  10. I agree with interest rate- issue- if BOE raises rates to pacify market about its committment to fight inflation and forgoe entrenching economic growth could have an impact on house supply. More so if expectations of future interest rate rise take hold. This could led an increase in more properties coming onto the market. According to the BOE MPC minutes for Dec 2010 - inflation may reach 4% spring. This will depend on: commodity prices, strength of sterling and inflationary expectations. Loads of uncertainity.
  11. My sentiment is that it will depend on interest rates. If the base rate remains at the levels and mortgage rates especially standard variable rates do no rise then supply will increase at a moderate rate.According to RICS house market survery for Nov 2010- surveyors continue to see fewer vendor instructions. More properties will become rental properties. Price will continue to decline, but the rate of decline will be more of drip-drip , than a gush. Possibly rents will moderate as supply of property on the market rises. http://*******.com/33fjfmf
  12. My take is Shapps is looking at the supply side of the housing market. I think the coalition believe the can build house prices downwards. By increasing the rate housebuilding above demand- prices will fall. Should be interesting how they achieve with Localism Bill
  13. Low transactions volumes usually indicate a stalemate between buyers and sellers. - Looks a long slow bleed in property prices. the 1990s crush had higher inventory levels - http://wp.me/pTU04-5p
  14. I am going with 1.2% decline- previous qtr showed a unsually strong rise http://wp.me/pTU04-5p
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