Left the UK 2009
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Posts posted by Left the UK 2009
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Bump for a very old and interesting thread from about the bottom (so far?) of this HPC. At the start of 2009 I was expecting around 60% falls.
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No surprise here I am afraid, interest rates are not going to increase significantly any time soon, especially with Andrew Sentance due to be leaving the MPC at the end of next month. For some reason, the BoE still has the confidence of the markets.
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if you give any credance to TA, it'll probably make ~1625 (it's the 'consolidation' target). Then, technically it will need to consolidate again or retreat - technically speaking.
I remember at the start of this year, a lot of the pundits were saying a drop to 1250, hell I even put it in my Chrimbo predictions. In the event it barely got to 1310.
That certainly sounds plausible, would make sense for it to occur around June when the Fed is meant to be ending QE2. We will surely come down to test the 1450 level as well at some point. I find it hard to do TA when the price is at record highs. There are a couple of obvious trend lines but my target for the next year or two would be the 161.8 fib extension of the October 2008 to November 2010 bull, at around 1880 dollars.
Good old RB. I particularly remember his call for a "triple top", at about 1000 dollars. It broke that level within a few weeks.
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Wow, I wish that I had listened to the goldbugs a bit more in 2008. At the current rate of increase it should be at 1600 in no more than a couple of months. The way that a lot of the gold commentators are talking about 1650 dollars suggests to me that it will not reach that level, at least in the short to medium term. Nice signature General.
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Great, the British disease is coming to Germany.
You have no idea whether you like the country but already your searching for property.
Property in Germany is cheap for a reason.
I will let you figure out why.
Fairly tight mortgage lending leading to a requirement of a deposit of 30 to 40%?
A high level of stamp duty ranging between 3.5 and 4.5%?
High estate agent fees?
Capital gains tax for the first ten years on a primary residence?
Citizens financially much better educated than in Britain?
Rental laws favouring long-term renters over the landlord?
Without wanting to come across as a ramper, property in Germany is significantly under-valued. Round where I live you can easily find a yield of 8 or 9% with financing costs at about 4%.
i hope that there is no house price inflation here in the future.
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And here is what it looked like two years ago.
Good to see it doing well. I seem to remember some HPCers discovering that it was all funded by RBS?
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199,000 EUR = 176,000 GBP ?! For a flat in it, or for the whole house??
Around here a 2 bedrom flat would cost you that!
http://www.immowelt.de/immobilien/immodetail.aspx?id=20796875
Yes, I spotted that one immediately as well, what a beauty. Interestingly it has its own former slaughterhouse and stables. If I had half a million euros.......
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Mainstream media is a joke. Also when this disaster was first reported back in march. I recall a reporter telling us the people we were seeing wearing masks, were wearing these because Japan was at the height of its Hay fever season.
That is true. They wear those masks all times of the year but particularly in early Spring.
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For anyone waiting for a crash, read this thread carefully and estimate how long it will be before the situation changes and the government stops supporting houses prices via housing benefit. Note that government spending isn't actually going down.
In the absence of government financial collapse (possible) or a mass building program, I just don't see it happening.
Agreed. The issue is very similar to the SMI, supremely unfair and yet very difficult to argue against without looking like a monster. Stuff like this still makes me angry, so glad I left Britain.
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Wow, 200 million pounds as an annual deficit. Britain is borrowing that around every 11 hours. Countries really should be being run like in Canada, there is never a need for a country to borrow.
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I think most office workers have absolutely no idea how hard teaching is. In an office you can get a drink, go to the loo, have a quiet moment to think or a cheeky look on the internet any time you like.
As a teacher you have 20-30 teenage kids watching your every move and word for an hour, followed by another lot, then another lot. Then it's lunch time with 20 mins to eat lunch and 40 mins lunch duty, another barrage of kids and then when they finally go home 2-3 hours marking that MUST be done before they come back the next day. You can't just extend the deadline at school - the exam WILL be on XX June so you HAVE to have taught them everything by then.
If you're tired (and you will be), you can't just take a day off - sorry: half term is 4 weeks away. You are working every weekday, and possibly most Saturdays on the sports field, until then.
There is no such thing as a "quiet day in the office" at school. There is no hope that tomorrow might be a bit easier - every day is timetabled full of lessons.
As head of department, you can also throw in setting the schedule of work, ordering textbooks, performance management for X other teachers and being point of contact for any irate parent complaining about any lesson in your subject.
Seriously, if you have an office job, spend a few hours chatting to a teacher about their job and you will never complain about yours being hard work again.
Great post. What with the problems of dealing with children and unfortunately, the increasing threat of violence in schools nowadays, I can barely think of a worse job to have. I hope they get good pay.
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I admire your persistence, and I'm not having a go, but is Forex Factory ever right?
Forexfactory is reporting the average market expectation, so it is a more a case of if the market is ever right. 0.1 percent up today, so market expectations were roughly correct. Not too bad for peak selling season I guess.
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Nice sell there at 1.613. Setting up nicely to break through to 1.58 with some decent non-farm employment figures tomorrow.
News that the US economy is growing strongly with 216000 new jobs created in the last month sent the dollar tumbling today whereas the ratings downgrade for Portugal and banking problems in Spain sent the euro to new highs. Got to laugh sometimes.
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Just noticed Fafa`s post while writing this and he explains it far better than I could, just typical market movements. I will be looking to sell again when we reach the 25 day moving average.
Nice sell there at 1.613. Setting up nicely to break through to 1.58 with some decent non-farm employment figures tomorrow.
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Great idea OP. A truly staggering amount of money being wasted here from hugely over extravagant council tax. I pay less than 20 euros a month for the equivalent of council tax here in Germany and see a better level of public services.
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What's the budget for SMI?
Or is it flexible?
I think that I have read on here that it was 400 million pounds, but that would surely be expanded. Some extraordinary information from this website, which however does not look to be an official government website. Apparently people who took a mortgage before 1995 are eligible to receive it. How could someone have bought a house in 1995 and not have paid it off by now?
http://www.governmentmortgagehelp.co.uk/ways-of-aiding-you-with-repaying-your-home-finance-loan/
My point anyway is that this ridiculous system cannot continue if it gets to the point where a quarter of the population is on it. And a banker bashing stop paying your mortgage campaign would have a chance of success if supported by a few well chosen celebrities.
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http://www.independent.ie/national-news/landlords-pocket-rent-but-leave-loans-unpaid-2598196.html
Also some house buyers don't even pay the first month's mortgage and go into immediate arrears.
Let the ROI taxpayer take the hit you say. Unfortunately a lot of the BTL and residential loans were through Bank of Scotland (Ireland) and Ulster Bank (RBS) so we as UK taxpayers are taking the hit too.
Wow, a free house! Thats what I call a house price crash!
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Problem is that the government has done everything so far to avoid mass repossessions. A rapid increase in interest rates would only mean a deal would be done with the banks to defer/cancel/reduce debts to avoid mass bankruptsy and repossessions, along with increased government help including extensions of existing schemes. Once people become aware that defaulting on the mortgage is almost the norm then this option will become more palatable, much like bankruptcy is almost socially acceptable now.
Exactly right. In my opinion, the best thing for HPCers to do would be to start a campaign highlighting and encouraging mortgage default, the SMI system would have to collapse if millions were doing it.. What a ridiculous country Britain is.
For the record I put 4 percent. Which is why they won`t raise them there.
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Just noticed Fafa`s post while writing this and he explains it far better than I could, just typical market movements. I will be looking to sell again when we reach the 25 day moving average.
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Just up on the Asahi Shimbun website http://www.asahi.com/business/update/0330/TKY201103300306.html 15:47 Japan Time
President of TEPCO has just announced at a press conference, that, given the state of reactors 1 to 4, the company will have no choice but to decomission and shut all four of them down for good,
I can't say that he had much of a choice...
Extraordinary. It should have been obvious from the time of the reactor 3 explosion that this place was unsalvageable. Thanks for the translations 小田急線。
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It's roughly equivalent to Astrology as far as being based in reality goes. There is a massive amount of post-hoc rationalization involved; at best it's a way of rationalizing your own hunches (which may themselves be valid if you spend a lot of time looking at the markets).
As I said, TAs will find their channels, support levels, head and shoulders and whatnot in random data. This should tell you about how powerful the technique is.
It is certainly not an exact science, and different analysts might see different things when looking at the same data. I would also agree that technical analysis is a reflection more of the collective market herd mood than of any fundamental economic analysis. But that is the point. The market is not an anonymous entity that is always correct, it is a collection of traders all looking for the same or similar things and prone to wild shifts in emotion that produce wild shifts in price.
If you were to produce some random data for an imaginary share or currency then technical analysts would look at it, find channels and support levels and then this would affect future price movements in this imaginary share.
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short-termism in the city....here, in this post, we see the proof.
speculators cae not about economies except their state now and the next few minutes...yesterday was ancient history, this afternoon is a new genesis.
This is why the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent....speculators buying and selling all day and everyday, and when they cant they buy futures, hedges derivatives.
This is not business. This is Speculation.
That`s right. I am no city boy but I do speculate, at the moment against the pound.
I never understand why technical analysis gets so much stick. Anyone who knows how to do it knows how enormously powerful it is.
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I am neither a salesman, and hopefully not a fool either.
But by definition, inflation means an increase in the overall money supply, which has the net effect of lowering the value of each unit of currency, which can then result in price increases due to more money going chasing after more or less the same amount of real world goods and services. Of course, there is always the argument that because people will have less money to spend on goods and services that means that the cost of those goods and services will have to come down. Whilst this may be true of the hooker who sucks your knob off down the docks, it may not be true of core goods whose price is very much related to the cost of the raw materials used to make them. Perhaps it is much more likely that everyone will have less money to spend, but prices will rise as result of inflation (of the money supply) and all the resulting extra currency that is bidding after the raw materials in question, not to mention future markets trading also having the effect of pushing the prices up (as a result of freed up liquidity going on the hunt for real world investments that aint gonna blow up in someones face).
Anyways, there has been a huge increase in base money M0, supposedly to counter a big decrease in broad money (M4) from debts being defaulted upon or repaid, whilst the banks are shying away from creating new loans, however, all this extra M0 being pumped into the system is setting the system up for a period of potentially wild hyper-inflation, if/when confidence is restored to the system enabling the banks to restart rampant credit creation and go on the high risk investment trail once again. On the otherhand, if we dont experience another phase of rampant credit creation, the banks continue to hold on to the capital to buffer the slow deleveraging of the derivatives trade, and the trend for freed up liquid capital to go chasing commodites continues, thus pushing prices up their........ this will all result in a collapse in the CPI because?
I look forward to reading your explanation.
Great post. There will be huge inflation in the next decade and the pound will fall considerably against most other currencies. There might be a considerable fall in house prices before that as well.
Questions On The Uk Housing Market - Guardian
in House prices and the economy
Posted
Agree with that.
I just cannot understand the mindset of these people, this utterly reckless approach to personal finance. I almost enjoy trying to live on as little money as possible. I give myself an extra chocolate biscuit if I can spend less than 50 euros in a week. Far more fun than buying a new car.