Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

GreenWarwick

Members
  • Posts

    115
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by GreenWarwick

  1. Have actually been in these estates a few times. Problem is though that there are no facilities or no sense of community. No local shops or sports clubs etc.
  2. Sadly true. But spare a moment for us Irish of a HPC frame of mind who didn't vote for the above morons or get suckered by the property pushers. Some media organs printing articles suggesting mortgage debt forgiveness necessary (Sunday Independent of Ali O'Riordan fame). If any bailout money goes to fund such a scheme then people in my position must wonder what we do next........Big trade union demo in Dublin this Saturday lunchtime...possibilty of serious unrest........
  3. Greetings to all in the beautiful heart of England. Last night RTE 1 Radio (state radio station equivalent of Radio 4) played a concert, just like Radio Moscow used to do when the chairman of the communist part fell ill. Compare that to FiveLive where Stephen Nolan hosted a lively phone in on the merits of the UK contribution to the Irish bailout... mood now is a mix of denial, stoicism and mounting fear. Up to now civil discord was never going to happen.....but when the IMF hit the lumpenproleteriat and the midle classes then it may very well be a different story. Watch out now for the emergence of a hard right anti EU political grouping.... Rampant consumerism replaced Catholicism and there is now a huge social and poltical vacuum waiting to be exploited...who will be the New Irish hard man?
  4. Agree with the sentiment but AIB ( trading name for Allied Irish Banks) and Anglo Irish Banks are 2 different banks. Allied trade under AIB on the stock exchange which is why some investors nearly had heart attacks when media articles wrongly referred to the near collpase of AIB. AIB isn't in brilliant shape either but will survive because ofits systemic importance and the fact that it is practically state owned already as well.
  5. Spot on Gimble. Perfect analysis of how the Irish were conned. Glad to see a well written account of Ireland's downfall, unlike some of the simplistic paddywhackery that some correspondents engage in. A combination of domestic and international factors contrived to con a huge amount of Irish people. The onus is now on the Irish to refoem their political system to dispose of the moronic parish pump clientelist politicians that they contantly elect. We also need to realise the pernicious role that the EU globalists have played in Ireland's crisis.
  6. Dell made massive profits last year in Ireland (about 28 million euro) but still moved their manufacturing plant from Limerick to Poland: grant aided by EU
  7. Might be better advised listening to Jim Corr rather than Enya....But the point re the public sector is telling. When the Ecb formally takes over the Irish economy and cuts public sector wages by perhaps 20-30% the endgame will really begin. Ireland was of course suckered into the Euro by a corrupt political elite. Don't think that Britain will remain immune from EU expansionism once Ireland has been dealt with. Despite not being in the Euro UK banks will take a massive hit if Ireland defaults. You might also want to research who were the first banks to peddle 100% mortgages into the Irish market. They didn't have Irish accents. Anyway, enough petulance.
  8. See how smart you are next year if Ireland defaults and British banks lose the value of their Irish bonds........ Nevertheless, leaving aside your purile attempt at humour the fact is that post default Ireland will now be used as a laboratory by the EU globalists to implement the next stage of their neo-liberal agenda. Expect swinging cuts in every area of the public sector leading to mass emigration.....much of it to Britain you will be delighted to hear Tahoma. You can give elocution lessons to the paddies and explain to them how Britain was a model of financial probity in recent years.
  9. Sadly I doubt it very much. This was primarily a student demo. Irish students have enjoyed free third level fees for years and now this looks set to stop with the introduction of massive "registration" fees. Currently working in Dublin I don't personally know of any working people who were on the march. I can not forsee revolution here, at least not now. In crude terms, most pensioners retirees, babyoomers etc are doing quite well. The property bubble saw a huge transfer of wealth from the young to the aged. In turn these young dupes who were seduced by the property pushers are too busy keeping their heads above water to worry about protesting. Equally many (Ali O'Riordan et al) are probably so embarrased by being duped into buying property that to protest would be an admission of their lack of judgement and hence merely highlight their gullibility. There is a rentamob element to these marches too, comprised of Republicans, Trotskyites, anarchists, etc so I wouldn't read a whole lot into it. also, I think rebellion may only happen if the IMF or ECB impose swinging cuts, particularly on public service pay. Then it may be a different story.
  10. Excellent analysis Doccyboy . From personal experience I can verify the first part of your post about people crowding out estate agents and developers to buy. I know of a guy working for a developer, who spotting hundreds queing to buy property at 6 in the morning added 3k on to prices of 1 and 2 beds straight away. Today's Irish Daily Mail headline is about the 33,000 ghost estates lying idle around the country. I know people are human and don't want to demonise the suckers who were conned and now in serious debt. Already economists and politicians are proposing schemes to bail these people out. But who is going to pay for it? And more importantly there is the issue of moral hazard. Bail these people out and they will simply repeat their mistakes. I was vilified after moving back from UK for not buying property: often the verbal abuse was quite staggering. Morally and financially, I think these people will just have to take a hit by either paying off or renegotiating their debts or by simply declaring themselves bankrupt. No society should have to pick up the moral or fiscal tab for greed and hubris.
  11. Have a look at the image below to see some of the marketing nonsense doing the rounds before the Irish collapse. Picture says it all. http://img99.imageshack.us/i/belmayne2fx2.png/ And this for a half finished ghost estate nearly ten miles from Dublin City Centre with no amenities.........
  12. But beware: the property pushers are at it again. Have a read of this to see how they try to sugarcoat and spin even the direst of situations......... "Hardy Irish Souls Tiptoe Into Nation's Ghost Estates ." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703735804575535513394082450.html?mod=WSJ_topics_obama They never give up do they?
  13. Absolutely correct. Moved back to Dublin after a long time away. Saw at first hand various UK property crashes so realised the same BS was happening in Ireland.. But back in Ireland we were constantly told that we were "different and that a "soft landing" was imminent. Of course the weasel Bertie Ahern was responsible for a lot of it as he was a whore for the property pushers. (Incidentally the same piece of work is now advertising the News of the World despite maintaining his politician's benefits). A few years ago a bearish female journalist identified single twentysomething females as the main dynamic behind the Irish Bubble. Sadly she was right as the moronic experience of O'Riordan demonstrates. In the modern phase of capitalism where we make nothing, a lot of money is earned from micro markets like the young female demographic or the gay pound. Irish women fell for it hook line and sinker and completely bought the sales patter. A few bearish Irish guys I knew were suckered into the nonsense by their "better" halves. Peope like me suffered wholsale verbal abuse from female property buyers because we would not be hoodwinked. I remember me and a mate being called "losers" by a female banker in a pub when she discovered to her horror that we didn't own. Only yesterday there were clamours in Dublin for a bailout for those in negative equity. Don't be surprised if this happens. It would turn my stomach if my taxes were to be used to bail out Ms O'Riordan and fellow dupes
  14. "Booterstown" is in the supposedly affluent South Dublin stockbroker belt, not too far from where Bono et al hang out when tax residency laws permit them. Developers would have paid obscene money for this land. Bear in mind that this would be among the most overpriced areas in Ireland. Even still, prices will plummet further. Only a few miles from here there are massive empty estates where I honestly belivee the government bad bank "NAMA" will be selling flats next year for virtually nothing. Another huge problem in Dublin now is that estate management agencies have gone bust. EA's never tell you in their bumpf that you may have to pony up about 2k a year in management fees. I know a guy who paid 320k for a 2 bed flat in Greater Dublin a few years ago. Estate managemnt firm has gone bust and each tenant has to look after their own refuse and corridor management etc. Legal wrangle over whether estate fees would be stopped. Around the same time another aquaintence was considering a two bed flat in Greater Dublin.In the end him and English fiance got a three bed semi d for same price in Cheshire,even at height of UK boom. Reckon Irish price collapse has only begun..........
  15. Got it in one. Was in that neck of the woods recently. Alright houses. But before this pans out, I reckon same type of abode will go for less than 100k. Incidentally, did some socialising in that area not so long ago. Visit pubs and restaurants in Greater Dublin and you will notice a huge shortage of 25-40 year olds. All sitting at home in their negative equity shoeboxes. It's actually eerie. You just don't see this age group knocking about. Ok many are married and playing happy families. But from personal experience these were by and large the poor misguided eejits who fell for the property pushers propaganda and are and now in debt up to their necks. 40 more years of staying at home watching X factor, with no holidays, pensions or car. Reckon it's no coinicidence that Irish viewers can now vote for the X factor: it's a captive stay at home audience. Knew one girl who queued all night to slap down a deposit on a 400K 2 bed flat in this area of Ireland a few years ago. The madness of crowds......
  16. Meanwhile, the chief architect of the disastrous Irish credit bubble comports himself with dignity in retirement.................. http://www.politics.ie/media/91067-new-sports-columnist-news-world-bertie-ahern.html
  17. What a wonderfully enlightening reply. It ill behoves you blueskies to descend to Colonel Blimp casual racism. After all we never had easy money dished out by morons in the UK. No nation was immune from the stupidity and rank greed of the property pushers. Nationality or race is not the issue but greed, pure and a simple. It's not as if the British government covered itself in economic glory in recent times. Having lived in Ireland during the bubble I can say, as with the UK, that there was a minority actively engaged in fighting the excesses of the property pushers. Sadly as in Britain, they were shouted down.
  18. Greetings from sunny Dublin. Came back to Ireland after living in UK during late 80's and 90's. Immediately recognised from 2001 on that Ireland was developing a major property bubble. It wasn't that I was particularly intelligent or psychic. In retrospect a donkey could have it seen it coming. But the property pushers managed to take over power by getting their good ole boy Bertie Ahern into power. Ahern inherited a decent export lead economy, but handed it over to the property pushers while maintaining his man of the people image. Tax incentives and propagande were spewed out to continually inflate the bubble.So called economists came out with unbelievable nonsense about how Ireland was different, due to its population structure, developmental lag etc. Any old nonsense was churned out to maintain the mirage that a soft landing was going to happen. Spoke to a guy who shelled out 320k 3 years ago for a 2 bed flat 10 miles from Dublin. This week the neighbouring 3 bed semis going for 260k. They won't fetch half that in a year. A guy I know who had dealings with the government bad bank - "NAMA"- reckons in the same village next year 1 and 2 bed flats may go for 5-10 k as the firesales begin. What is interesting is that Irish people who lived abroad tended to have a more sceptical view of things and in my opinion have not been burnt as much. I find now that guys in their twenties and thirties who bought in the last 3 years or so have hardly got the price of a pint at the weekend. On the plus side though, Dublin has regained some of its old pre bubble charm as the BS artists who talked up the bubble have gone into hiding.
  19. Brilliantly put, Jammo, well done. And when it does inevitably pan out as you describe, wait for these misguided sods to start begging for help from the government. Am currently working in Dublin. Some of the mood music and spin here seems to be softening us up for a "rescue package for mortgage holders" : - at the already distraught taxpayers' expense. Sod them! They've already damaged society enough!
  20. Bertie pulled off "the man of the people" schtick to a tee. But equally interesting to see how Minister of Finance Brian Lenihan blamed the "political class" at that time for causing the damage. This is the same Mr Lenihan who as a Fianna Fail backbencher supported every one of Bertie's bubble inducing tax incentives. A Fianna Fail supporter in Dublin today finaly admitted to me today that they were wrong about their predicted "soft landing". Same person got into btl 2 years ago, arguing that 10 times the average wage was a fair price for property.......You get the politicians you deserve, as we sadly know north and south on this island
  21. Totaly agree. when it was in Ireland a few years ago it was totally overhyped. Was living in vicinity of K Club in Co Kildare then in 2006. Palpable lack of interest in the end, with only the golfies and the property pornites the only ones to get animated about it. Being on satellite telly also killed off any popular appeal. Anyway, can you really imagine Tiger giving a damn about it? see below from:http://archives.tcm.ie/irishexaminer/2006/09/05/story12463.asp Irish Examiner "Economic impact of RyderCup overhyped, claims report " THE Ryder Cup might still be almost three weeks away but there are already fears that the only thing “epic” about the competition’s first staging in Ireland is the hype. A new report by independent consultants has suggested that official estimates made by Fáilte Ireland about the value of the competition to the economy are massively inflated. A study by Anderson Economic Group in conjunction with Amárach Consulting states the true amount of extra revenue generated by the Ryder Cup being staged at the K Club in Straffan, Co Kildare will be around €43 million compared to Fáilte Ireland’s estimate of €130m. However, the State tourist authority last night stood over its figures saying it was satisfied with its calculations about the potential economic benefits of the tournament. Fáilte Ireland said an economic impact study on the Ryder Cup at the Belfry in 2002 found the area had benefited by €100m. “Taking into account inflation over the past four years and the attraction of the Ryder Cup in Ireland, €130m is a reasonable figure, especially given the value of media exposure and legacy benefits to Ireland,” said the spokesperson. However, the AEG study claimed many such official estimates are published “largely for public relations purposes” and do not use consistent or conservative evaluation methods. “As a result, the reports mislead the public and investors as to the true economic impact of an event,” it observes. The €130m estimate by Fáilte Ireland has also been quoted by Tourism Minister John O’Donoghue and the Irish Hotels Federation. However, the new report said it seemed unreasonable to believe that a three-day event like the Ryder Cup could generate the same amount of revenue as the 138,000 overseas golfers who visited Ireland throughout 2004. The AEG report estimates that the competition will generate 137,700 new visitors days based on 25% of visitors to the K Club being overseas tourists in addition to 2,000 foreign media personnel. It believes every visitors will spend an average of €220 per day. In addition, it calculates that an extra €16.1m will be derived in indirect economic benefits through such measures as various employers hiring additional staff. The report said Irish people attending the Ryder Cup do not have an economic impact on a national scale as their spending is “simply a shift in economic activity away from another local activity, like seeing a movie or going to another sporting event”. A similar AEG report for the 2004 Ryder Cup in Oakland Hills near Detroit, Michigan claimed its economic impact would generate €39.1m for the area, even though “official” estimates were over twice that figure at €77m. Fáilte Ireland also said that Deloitte had been commissioned to carry out an economic impact assessment of the Ryder Cup, which will be published in early 2007.
  22. Over here in Ireland the market continues its merry trend downwards. This despite the denials being pumped out by the usual spivs.This article was front page news for much of the Irish press today: http://www.galwaynews.ie/14770-four-bed-house-sale-offers-over-%E2%82%AC1-considered Four bed house for sale - offers over €1 considered! September 2, 2010 - 7:00am by Dara Bradley When Michael Dempsey advertised that he would consider offers of over €1 – yes any offer over ONE Euro – for a newly built four bedroom house in County Galway, he hadn’t bargained on some of the queries he would receive from potential ‘buyers’. “I’d one lady from Clifden ringing me. She asked about the details of the house but after a while she said she thought one Euro was too dear! Sure what would you get for a €1?” he laughs ironically, shocked that anyone would think his property is worth less than a hamburger. “I’d another tulip ringing me the last night ... he was just taking the Mickey out of me to be honest. I humoured him for a while; he was asking about how many windows were in it ... he made an offer but I told him he’d have to come and see it first but he wasn’t interested in viewing it ... just taking the Mick”. But Michael, a driver from Moylough, insists his ‘House for Sale’ advertisement in the Connacht Tribune newspaper last week is no joke. He will consider every offer of more than €1 on the 2,300 sq ft house – which includes four bedrooms (two-ensuite), sitting room, kitchen, bathroom, walk-in hot press as well as 1,200 sq ft floored attic space – in the townland of Gatestown two miles from Moylough and Mountbellew.
  23. Ireland is an interesting case, to put it mildly, at the moment. Being in the euro straitjacket currency devaluation is not an option hence the internal devaluations of public service and wage cuts to attempt to regain competitiveness. The sad fact is that Ireland had a good economy up to the election of Bertie Ahern and his Fianna Fail government who were notorious pimps for the property industry. Ahern was a brilliant politician in the sense of his cunning and guile but utterly disastrous for the country. He handed a decent export lead economy over to the property barons in what effectively amounted to a coup d'etat, according to one commentator.Ahern introduced a myriad of tax reliefs to continuously inflate the bubble: there were even incentives for building in seaside resorts to name but one.When they ran out of ideas to incentivise the residential market they started doing the same thing with commercial property. e.g. the hospitality industry where one analyst recently estimated Ireland now has a surplus of about 60,000 rooms. Ahern was presented to the public as an honest working class Dublin lad, who enjoyed the football and a few pints.It was an image that tso many twenty and thirty somethings fell for, believing he would neved mislead them on property.In 2005 he scoffed at those who suggested house prices might actually fall. Four years ago, in a famous speech to the comrades of the Irish TUC he suggested, to thunderous applause, that those who questioned the fundamentals of the economy should "commit suicide". Ahern and his buddies labelled anyone who went against the consensusy as "talker downers". As I refused to buy property in Ireland I when I moved to Dublin I was abused with this label on many occasions. Sheddweller's tale t is a very accurate account of what went on here in Ireland for the last decade. Sadly, it has a huge impact on Irish life. Being naturally gregarious we in Ireland are now reduced to sitting at home in overpriced hovels sipping cheap beer at the weekends. All this is having a huge impact on mental health. And ironically, given Ahern's comment, I fear it will be those who were suckered into the property scam who may end up being most at risk at suicide. The banks will survive I have no doubt, but only at the expense of the social fabric of the country.
  24. Have been mostly based in Dublin area for last decade. Lived in UK during ninties recession and witnessed negative equity etc. at first hand. When I came here realised that the massive increase in house prices was completely unreal, even moreso than previous British bubbles. it was sustained by government tax initiatives, cheap euro interest rates, but mostly by a media bought off by vested interests peddling blatant nonsense. With a few honourable exceptions (see David McWilliam's excellent work) it was unbelievable how many people in Ireland fell for the same house price con.Very few commentators were willing to put their heads above the parapet. However many people saw what was happening and profited spectaculary from the bubble. These were in general the over fifties and boomers, who in my opinion were happy to stand by as the under thirties fell for the barrage of property porn unleashed at them. Many of these older guys pulled out in time and are now happily ensconced on golf courses in the Algarve living off the profits their over hyped properties garnered. As always a certain cohort had to buy out of necessity. But in general, as elsewhere in the western world, it was a generation of dumbed down under thirties who fell for the schtick and are now in serious trouble. One academic has rec koned prices will fall approx 80% from the height of the bubble in 06/07. There are parts of the country, especially the midwest, filled with "ghost estates". These will inevitably be knocked down or palmed off at rock bottom pricers. In my own opinion, by the time this bottoms out, a 3 bed semi, even near Dublin, will go for approx 100k, while some unfortunates are paying mortgages on same for anything between 400k-600k. Desperate times for many and a salutory tale for many in UK and elsewhere as to why we must be ever vigilant against the housing bulls.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.