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Everything posted by GreenWarwick

  1. Harry took the mick out of house prices earlier this evening on You've been Framed. Played a clip showing a little kid actually squeezing through front door of her doll's house....said it was a demonstration of how ftb'ers and key workers would now be able to get on to housing ladder!! Top Man!
  2. This letter in one of the prominent Irish dailies getting a lot of interest today.. "Sir, – As I write this letter I am hoping that sleep can provide me with some escape from the anxiety and pain that the economic situation is wreaking on me and my family. Until recently I have been able to meet my mortgage repayments and provide for my young children. At this juncture, seeing as the part-time work on which I depended has entirely ceased, I have found myself and my loved ones having to cope with a new torment – hunger. Today I have had nothing to give my children only bread and cereal. My dole payment is completely servicing my mortgage and my savings have run dry on essentials. I dread what each day will bring. The wolf that I have been keeping from the door has finally moved in. – Yours, etc" http://www.irishtimes.com/letters/index.html#1224303002054 Feel sympathy for him, or disgust that he continues to try to hang on to his overvalued house rather than just throwing back the keys, thereby affording to feed his family?... A telling comment on how people cling to the modern myth of house ownership even at the expense of their own and their family's welfare?
  3. Could this have an effect on gold prices? "In addition to the nationalization of his gold insutry, Chavez earlier also announced that he would recover virtually all gold that Venezuela hold abroad, starting with 99 tons of gold at the Bank of England. As the WSJ reported earlier, "The Bank of England recently received a request from the Venezuelan government about transferring the 99 tons of gold Venezuela holds in the bank back to Venezuela, said a person familiar with the matter. A spokesman from the Bank of England declined to comment whether Venezuela had any gold on deposit at the bank." That's great, but not really a gamechanger. After all the BOE should have said gold. What could well be a gamechanger is that according to an update from Bloomberg, Venezuela has gold with, you guessed it, JP Morgan, Barclays, and Bank Of Nova Scotia. As most know, JPM is one of the 5 vault banks. The fun begins if Chavez demands physical delivery of more than 10.6 tons of physical because as today's CME update of metal depository statistics, JPM only has 338,303 ounces of registered gold in storage. Or roughly 10.6 tons. A modest deposit of this size would cause some serious white hair at JPM as the bank scrambles to find the replacement gold, which has already been pledged about 100 times across the various paper markets. Keep an eye on gold in the illiquid after hour market. The overdue scramble for delivery may be about to begin." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chavez-pulls-venezuelas-gold-jp-morgan-great-scramble-physical-starting
  4. As a confirmed housing bear currently living in the east of Republic of Ireland, some of what you say is true. But....the bit about Amazon..c'mon mate stop taking the mick. That's either a joke or spectacular ignorance on your part (we do actually have computers down here).Your scaremongering about dentists and opticians is glib also. Infrastructure is reasonably good in the Republic, better than the UK in many ways from my own experience and generally better than NI .Road tolls, though a rip off anywhere, are on a par with UK. Is your post motivated by some political bias, conscious or otherwise?. I certainly do not underestimate the problems in the ROI, most caused by the electorate's own greed in electing corrupt politicians who sold the country out to the property pornsters. My fear is what all this will do to Irish society, which is still however generally very warm and welcoming without the sectarian hangups of the north. I make these points to be helpful not to prove any point, political or otherwise. If you have disposable cash the Republic offers great opportunities now, especially re housing as I believe prices are a probably on a downward tracjectory for many more years
  5. This article written by Stephen King in today's Independent: Pieces of paper. That's all they are. Whether they're cash, government bonds, equities or pension promises, they all amount to the same thing. They represent claims on future economic output. What happens, though, when we discover these accumulated claims are simply too big to be satisfied? What happens when we discover that the future is neither bright nor orange but, instead, a depressing shade of grey? This, unfortunately, is the reality that's befallen the Western world. While it's convenient to blame the financial crisis, we need to dig a little deeper. As Western populations age, we end up with an inverted population pyramid: the boomers head off into retirement while the population of those who are working age shrinks. But if the boomers' savings are made up of pieces of paper – claims on future economic activity – and the working-age population is shrinking as a share of the total population, it's hardly surprising that, collectively, these pieces of paper may turn out to be worth less than they originally appeared to be. If future output is lower than the claims made upon it, those claims will have to be reduced. And that, sadly, is what we're seeing today. In the eurozone, we're witnessing a struggle between those who own pieces of paper – most obviously German creditors – and those who issued pieces of paper – Greek debtors. The Germans legally have a claim on future Greek tax revenues. The Greeks, meanwhile, are discovering their economy isn't quite as strong as it once was and they'd rather use their – limited – tax revenues for domestic purposes rather than repaying the Germans. Elsewhere, inflation is rising, thereby reducing the usefulness of cash. While the upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa have all sorts of causes, there can be no doubt that the rising price of food – which, in effect, has reduced the value of people's meagre cash savings – has contributed to a sense of injustice. That, in turn, has added to the growing opposition to regimes which have persistently failed to spread economic wealth far and wide. And, for the people of Britain, life has become a lot more expensive recently, not only because inflation has picked up but because sterling's value on the foreign exchanges has dropped: the pound in your pocket no longer buys you that dream holiday in warm foreign climes........ As I noted in a recent HSBC report – "The Southern Silk Road" – the emerging nations will increasingly be trading with each other in the future, thereby leaving the sclerotic West more and more isolated. Still, at least these new economic superpowers could potentially bail us out. If we want to live the good life again, we could always sell off a few of our prized assets to Chinese buyers: the Greeks could lead the way with the sale of a few of their islands. If successful, the rest of us could follow suit. After all, California is bust: perhaps it could also be sold to the highest bidder in Beijing. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/stephen-king/stephen-king-western-nations-may-be-forced-to-sell-off-some-of-their-prized-assets-2300034.html A new age of Geopolitical allignment? Germany to buy some Greek islands for its holidaying pensioners....Chinese to buy Irish or Scottish islands for military bases? Reminiscent of the deals Britain made with the US for Atlantic military bases in the Chagos Islands. Bet the babyboomers are paralysed with guilt
  6. "My advice is that markets are a nice convenient way of speculating play money for short term gains, but every serious investor needs to keep wealth outside the financial system too. That may be in your own business (if it is resilient) or it may be in real estate (people will always need places to live) or it may be by stashing gold bullion in an offshore safe deposit box" http://www.qwealthreport.com/blog/the-coming-devaluation-of-the-dollar-will-be-sprung-on-us-without-warning/ Ignoring the nonsense about real estate, maybe the rest has a ring of truth. P.S. Danny T, love the Hornets logo......see we're back on the managerial roundabout again....
  7. I pay about €540 a year for a 1.9 diesel car registered in the Republic. This is "cheaper" than paying it on a 3 or 6 month instalment basis. The Irish equivalent of the MOT has to be carried out at independent test centres and has a high failure rate, and appears to be a lot harder to pass than the British system. You can check out its delights at http://www.ncts.ie/. It is quite draconian, and up until recently you could even fail if your indicator bulbs weren't sufficiently "orange". The Irish government is desperately trying to find new methods of direct and indirect taxation to steady the public purse. Water and property charges are on the way. Ireland might even lead the world with a media utility charge as a government minister announced recently that as more people are watching tv via the web,then it is morally justifiable to bring in such a tax to counterbalance the loss in tv licence revenue! Of course, the green agenda is particularly useful when it comes to imagining new taxes. Another gem is the proposed inspection and possible fining of insufficiently maintained septic tanks on stand alone houses. God help the poor fools who were suckered into buying properrty at extortionate levels from the main urban centres....interesting to see how much more they can take.
  8. "A generation of young British adults is close to giving up hope of ever owning their own place to live. A startling new survey reveals that while the great majority of young Britons from "Generation Rent" would like to become homeowners, most believe they will be unable to raise the mortgage they require to get on to the property ladder. A combination of continually rising house prices and pessimism about the future is threatening to send into reverse the explosion in home ownership stimulated by Margaret Thatcher 30 years ago, making Britain more like Europe, where living in rented property is the norm. The findings, issued by the Halifax, coincide with a separate report from the housing charity Shelter which reveals that the number of mortgages offered in April slumped to the lowest level since records began. Just 29,355 mortgages were granted, 18 per cent fewer than during the same month last year." http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/house-and-home/property/britain-to-become-a-nation-of-renters-2291072.html The penny finally dropping..?
  9. Ireland's loss is America's Gain! Allison hits the emigration trail! http://www.irishcentral.com/news/I-never-thought-Id-leave-Ireland-for-the-American-dream--118159014.html The posts after the article show how much she will be missed in the Emeradl Isle, e.g.: "This particular young woman has been bleating about how unfair life is when she got a large sum of money from her family to buy a stupidly price idiot-box in central Dublin. She also happens to be the granddaughter of a cinema chain owner (26 cinemas). She's a spoilt little brat who seems to be earning money through a gig arranged for her in the Irish media by 'friends'" It's laughable that she tries to portray herself in the same light as previous generations of Irish emigrants, like those of the famine era. Perhaps a Hollwood TV movie highlighting her plight is next. Wonder who would play her?
  10. This little ditty doing the rounds on Irish Boards: http://www.politics.ie/media/156167-latest-musings-alison-o-riordan-2.html "This a story about a young girl Who thought she was special, that she owned the world A child of South Dublin, and fee paying schools Studied UCD Arts, with the vacuous fools She dreamt that she’d lead such a wonderful life Throw dinner parties for the girls every second night Clothes, shoes and handbags, she’d buy on her card But plastered with fake tan, she looked like a tard She’d be like Paris Hilton, the princess of bling Her apartment would be fit for a queen and a king And like Carrie, Samantha, Miranda and Charlotte She’d have sex in the city like an upper class harlot Parading around in her new kitten heels she was an expert on property deals A canny investor, yes she would be rich Everything’s great, there would not be a hitch When she got some good advice from Brendan O’Connor She should really have known that she was a gonner Poor Ali believed the estate agent’s pitch He laughed to himself, thinking “what a thick bitch” Our princess bought in at the height of the boom Unaware that impending disaster did loom “Prices only go up, at least I think that is right” They all tried to warn her, she said “you talk shite” Then the crash came to bite her, she was out on her own Massive mortgage repayments, couldn’t pay off her loans “Why didn’t I listen?”, she mournfully cried Now no man will have me, my dream it has died She writes for her trouble, but can’t string two words Her illiterate rubbish only fit for the birds Made a name for herself as a stupid blonde bimbo, The one with the mortgage who writes for the Sindo Now she’s left on the shelf, she’ll never be a bride No man will touch her, she begs for a ride The loan sharks are calling, the phone is bombarded And poor Ali now knows she was ************************************g retarded FOAD Ali, you fat, useless, tangoed munter." Harsh sentiments on the writer's part!!
  11. Excellent article today by Prof Morgan Kelly who accurately forecast what house house price inflation would do to the country. Well worth reading, in the UK context as well. Sadly, no political party in Ireland would have the nerve to do what he suggests. Will the British establishment behave any differently come the financial denouement that Jonathan Davis et al are forecasting? "Ireland’s Last Stand began less shambolically than you might expect. The IMF, which believes that lenders should pay for their stupidity before it has to reach into its pocket, presented the Irish with a plan to haircut €30 billion of unguaranteed bonds by two-thirds on average.(Minister for Finance) Lenihan was overjoyed, according to a source who was there, telling the IMF team: “You are Ireland’s salvation.” The deal was torpedoed from an unexpected direction. At a conference call with the G7 finance ministers, the haircut was vetoed by US treasury secretary Timothy Geithner who, as his payment of $13 billion from government-owned AIG to Goldman Sachs showed, believes that bankers take priority over taxpayers. The only one to speak up for the Irish was UK chancellor George Osborne, but Geithner, as always, got his way. An instructive, if painful, lesson in the extent of US soft power, and in who our friends really are." ......"However, our current slump is not temporary: Ireland bet everything that house prices would rise forever, and lost." Full article at: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0507/1224296372123.html
  12. Quite correct, in the same way that Allied troops frogmarched Germans to cinemas after the war to see filmclips of the damage their glorious regime had inflicted on humanity. Along with other Irish based Hpc'ers we are torn between "told you so" and a complete sadness that the sheeple bought into the nonsense, and the subsequent effect it will have on national sovereignity and social cohesion. Knew a guy who bought one of these 2 bed slaveboxes outside Dublin a few years ago for €320000. Now he tells me it was the worst decision of his life.......do you feel sorry for him or condemn for his stupidity..or both? The new Irish gov have rowed back, temporarily at least, on increasing mortgage relief for those who bought during the boom while ending relief for future buyers. Hilariously, the Irish nurses union have called for a campaign for civil disobedience regarding mortgage payments..... Read it at http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/union-proposes-mortgage-strike-153709.html A pity they weren't so concerned about the plight of their health services when they continously elected governments composed of muppets. Sod them..............no sympathy
  13. This morning saw the bizarre spectacle of ratings agency Standard and Poors claiming Irish property prices have bottomed out. Now, given ratings agencies inability to forecast anything recently one wonders why they are putting forward this obviously ill founded judgement on property prices.... 'House prices have hit bottom' -- and won't be moving soon By Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor Thursday May 05 2011 Ireland's housing market has now hit the bottom but it may be several years before prices start recovering, a leading credit ratings agency said yesterday. Standard & Poor's said the Irish property market was coming to the end of a "correction'' in prices, but with interest rates set to rise, prices were unlikely to show much growth. "Ireland's prices have corrected but there's no recovery in sight," said the American-based agency. The agency claimed prices had fallen 33pc from the peak, but many people believe the falls have been much steeper. It added that Ireland's falls were the largest in western Europe since the global recession began. "Irish house prices have, in our opinion, completed their correction but it will take time -- probably another couple of years -- before we see tangible signs of market activity resuming," said a new report, which looked at the whole European market. Prices are now back at 2000 levels and are far more affordable for ordinary buyers. "This suggests that, unlike other markets, Ireland has pretty much fully corrected the excess of the previous housing bubble. Still, this does not mean that the market is about to pick up again soon, in our view," said the company. "We continue to see uncertainties about the extent of supply overhang that still needs to be absorbed," said the company. It said there were different estimates around about how much excess supply there was in the Irish market. At the upper range, some analysts believe there are 300,000 excess houses and apartments in the Irish market. "More recent estimates from the Irish Department of the Environment point to a much lower number of 23,000, but based on a smaller survey of recently completed estates," the agency pointed out. The general health of the economy was also likely to play a part in prices, said Standard & Poor's. "Ireland's overall economic situation, with growth expected to remain very weak this year on the back of a severe fiscal adjustment, combined with the likely gradual rise in eurozone interest rates, does not call for much optimism regarding the short-term housing market," said the agency. Standard & Poor's used house price data from the ESRI and Permanent TSB. Some analysts believe these figures understate the full extent of the recent price declines. - Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor The last line says it all...... a more apt opinion would be the voices aired on this thread. http://www.politics.ie/economy/159741-house-prices-hit-bottom-says-s-p-report.html
  14. That's our Brendan alright, man of the people.............. Sunday Independent, 29 July 2007: "The smart, ballsy guys are buying up property right now. [...] Tell you what, I think I know what I'd be doing if I had money, and if I wasn't already massively over-exposed to the property market by virtue of owning a reasonable home. I'd be buying property. [...] So why would I be buying property right now if I could? Well, for starters, property is good value these days. It's certainly cheaper than it was six months ago. " Sunday Independent, 10 January 2010: All those paper millions that made us all feel so rich are gone, and now we curse the day we ever got on the ladder, we curse the ancestry that gave us this obsession with the land, and we curse the politicians, the banks and the media that encouraged the madness http://quotesfromthebubble.blogspot.com/2010/01/brendan-oconnor-sunday-independent.html
  15. "Down at Myrtle Beach last week I spent some time nosing around a condominium overlooking the sea. With its own health spa and swimming pool, a good location and a sleek appearance it was all very tasteful. The show apartment was 1300 square feet. Two large bedrooms and bathrooms, and the sort of generous cupboard space that UK builders always seem to think we can live without. There was a little balcony, and of course a nice fitted kitchen complete with giant American style fridge. ‘150,000,' said the sales agent, ‘......dollars.' Three years ago, these apartments were selling for over 400,000 dollars. If it were anywhere in the UK, it would cost twice as much at least. In recent editions of Penny Sleuth I have been explaining why I would not touch UK property investment. How the economic predicament of this country dictates that land values and houses prices must come down. But this place is very different. These properties are now selling way below their building costs. And I have to admit that the rental yields look very enticing. This particular flat would yield an annual rental from holiday lets of about 30,000 dollars. That is a 20% yield on cost. Even allowing for some agent hype, this is the sort of yield that gives the owner the luxury of a handsome income while he waits for capital values to recover. It just goes to show how delusional we are about property prices in this country. Can anyone point me in the direction of that kind of value in the UK? I'd be delighted to see it. Hell, I might even buy in. Unfortunately, I sincerely doubt it exists. The trip to Myrtle Beach has only made me more certain: UK property has a long way to fall before I get interested. It seems that when it comes to excess, we British can put the Americans to shame." • This article was first published in Tom Bulford's twice-weekly small-cap investment email The Penny Sleuth. http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/us/housing-us-once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity-11605 The only way is down....
  16. Thanks for all the advice folks, much appreciated and all brilliant. I suppose it's a balancing act trying to be civil and maintain friendships, yet being able to remind people just how docile and boorish they were when they were suckered into the property con. Having said that, maybe the whole thing makes you realise that a certain type of person is motivated purely by greed and not worth maintaining contcat with. Have to laugh though at some of the great ideas offered: silver bar in the coat pocket, Maldive holiday brochures, a wallet full of big notes and offering to buy for 25% of the other guy's shoebox; hilarious! Cruel too, but a necessary wake up for these peopleto reflect on their past idiocy?
  17. Anyone been getting much in the line of verbals from property owners recently, especially the negative equity brigade? I certainly have. The other day in a social setting, a guy I know was lamenting his personal finances caused by his now obvious disastrous forays into property. He then exclaimed to all present that there was a tightwad in the company who wouldn't understand how "ordinary" people felt. This went on for a number of times to the point where he began to refer to me personally ; e.g. here comes the miser, millionaire etc.( I have always refused to buy property) After a number of weeks I decided the best tact to take was to go along with him, thereby agreeing that I was indeed a miserable millionaire as I never bought into the property con. One incident ended with me opening my wallet and tossing a few coppers at him; cue outrage and further verbals . In another setting some couples and singles I used to hang out with with will now limit their socialising to the ubiquitous "house party" and accompanying whinging about house price falls. Any time we agree to meet for a drink they invariably will arrive at the boozer just before closing time to avoid splashing out. I'm no millionaire sadly. But at the time of the boom I had to listen to condescending nonsense from these saddos about how I was missing out. Ironically nowadays, whilst not being rich by any stretch, I'm not being crucified by neg equity and can afford the odd night out and holiday.Now there seems to be a reverse snobbery at work, fueled by these people's realisation that in fact they were the losers. Have HPC'ers got any suggested tactics for how to deal with these people?
  18. Very succinctly put. The fear now is that the political establishment will push for "debt forgiveness" for the sheeple who bought into the con. Sitting here in ireland I see this already happening. the new government has doubled mortgage interest relief for those dumb enough to have bought houses between 2004-08. Yet, there will be no such relief at all for anyone who buys a house from here on in.If I got a penny for every clown who has argued for debt forgiveness in the last month in the Irish media i would have enough for a one bed flat in a Dublin suburb (about €300). The same geniuses srgue that it is anglo-irish culture that we buy rather than rent. Sod them from all of us who never bought. And the other argument that the Irish and british have no decent rent controlled sector is equaly facile. if these clowns stopped watching X factor and got politicaly active none of them might be in the mess they helped create for themselves.
  19. Sadly, your comment sums it up in a nutshell. As someone who lived in both countries during the false credit bubbles I witnessed the insane pressure put on people to buy into the houseowning dream. It was rampant greed driven individualism at its worst. Yet, the new Irish coalition is going to increase mortgage interest for those who bought between 2004 and 2008. Populist nonsense. These people were conned, yes. But to prevent this from happening again they should pay for their docility, arrogance, hubris and stupidity.Ultimately noone held a gun to their head. I'm afraid that until the negative equity generation will only learn their lesson when, and only when, they are turfed out onto the streets. As with Britain , it became fashionable to sneer at people who lived in old style council houses or rented accommodation. Let the negative equity generation realise that only hard work and real money can allow you to own property, which in itself is a fairly limited concept. Maybe the state should reintroduce rent controlled social housing that can also return a profit. The anglo Irish myth of widespread home "ownership" is a myth and now is the time to consign it to history.
  20. You can get about 2.5% if you lock money away for about a month or higher from the main comercial banks. The seriously troubled like Anglo Irish were offering higher rates. But as they are nearly all state guaranteed now I suppose one is as good or as bad as the other. Remember though that the banks automatically deduct deposit interest retention tax (DIRT) at source for the government. This can be either 27 or 30 percent of interest gained, depending on whether it is a short or long term loan. It seems to be a moot point as to which is which, but I think anything over a year attracts the higher rate Most of the political parties are sopping up to the negative equity brigade for the election though and are not that interested in savers. One party ,Fine Gael, is proposing to abolish mortgage interest relief for new buyers, but increase it for people who bought between 2004-2008 because of their "unfair" mortgage burden!
  21. Meanwhile over here in Ireland all the political parties are now engaged in sopping up to the negative equity generation as election time fast approaches: e.g http://www.eveningecho.ie/news/ireland/fg-to-extend-mortgage-interest-relief-if-elected-492173.html http://www.labour.ie/mariemoloney/news/12421422669344.html http://www.fiannafail.ie/news/entry/wallace-welcomes-extension-to-mortgage-interest-relief/ Sadly the main political parties all seem to think bailing out the negative equity brigade will somehow right the country's dire finances: at the expense of those of us who didn't believe the BS. Utter lunacy pandering to these people who as with the above mentioned lady have only themselves to blame for buying into the lie. Let them flog their overpriced shoeboxes, leopardskin clothes and souped up boy racer muppet mobiles and come back into the real world.
  22. On a relatively similar theme, anyone noticed that new bookmakers shops seem to be springing up everywhere......a reflection of where modern society is after two decades of casino capitalism maybe?
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