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GreenWarwick

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Posts posted by GreenWarwick

  1. It never ceases to amaze me the number of authors that post links to their books, on how brilliant it is and why we should buy it so that they can get rich.

    Really? Are you referring to my opening post? The death of the middle classes is a topic directly related to house price inflation, hence my interest. I most certainly am not the author, and indeed don't even live in Britain. Rather, I was genuinely interested to see if anyone had came across or perused this book before I decide whether it's worth shelling out via ordering through the net or whatever.

  2. It's not that modest then is it.

    Think two things at play here. Firstly the triumph of the babyboomers and their tacit support for the appalling escalation in property prices will militate against people in similar occupations to their parents from ever achieving the same lifestyle enjoyed by those same parents.

    Secondly as you say, perhaps what was deemed "modest" was never really viable for anyone apart from the babyboomers, and we are approaching the point where centrist social democracy can not survive much longer in the modern version of super globalised capitalism

    Perhaps this is the case below:

    "Long before today’s urgencies struck, European governments of the left, right, and centre alike spent incontinently and told the recipients that the borrowed cash was little sort of their birthright."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2137391/The-European-crisis-fault-capitalism-result-eroding-social-democracy.html#ixzz2uGTVlM5g

  3. Residential property prices up 5.6% in year to November

    http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/1223/494487-property-prices/

    Today's figures show that the two-speed housing market continued last month, with property prices up 13.8% in Dublin on an annual basis, while they fell by 0.6% in the rest of the country.

    Breaking down the figures, they show that residential property prices in Dublin grew by 1.3% in November.

    Dublin house prices rose by 1.4% in the month and are 13.1% higher compared to a year ago. Dublin apartment prices jumped 20.7% on a yearly basis.

    But despite the recent gains in property prices, overall property prices nationwide are still 46.7% lower than the highs reached in 2007. Residential property prices in Dublin are 49.2% lower than at their highest level in February 2007.

    The CSO said Dublin house prices are still over 47% lower than their highest levels in 2007, while apartment prices are over 56% below their peak levels.

    Commenting on today's CSO figures, Investec economist Emmet Gaffney said that supply remains a major issue in Dublin, with new build activity at historically low levels and secondary market transactions only running at about 1.4% of the total housing stock.

    "In large parts of the rest of the country, the opposite is the case, with excess supply weighing on prices, along with weaker economic fundamentals," he said.

    I don't believe property prices went up anywhere in Ireland. Selective figures may say so, but even in Dublin there were actually no increases.

  4. Prices may have bottomed out, but there will be lots of stock coming to market over the next few years. there are over 20,000 people who have not been paying their mortgage for over two years and the law has just been changed (curtsey of the Troika), so those houses will be repossessed.

    That's why I am not upset about the house that we were trying to buy falling through.

    Think you got lucky. Irish market long way to fall yet...introduction of property tax next month will tip it even further south. This despite despairing efforts of vested interest to propagate the notion that Ireland has differential housing markets a la England and the south east in UK, and hence "good areas" are rising.. Being looking at some stock in suburban Dublin on my travels lately...

    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=708758

    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=710151

    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=706593

    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=709701

    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=709285

    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=697306

    Popping down to Galway in few weeks, will see what the craic is there..

  5. Quality.. Just about sums it all up.

    Greetings from East coast of Ireland. Delighted to hear all going well for you in Galway. Lived near your new home for a few years when first came back from UK, nice spot. You hit the nail on the head re the vested interests and their concerted efforts to ramp up an ever decreasing Irish housing market.There has been a change in focus recently, with an attempt to sell the notion that "good" areas (affluent parts of Dublin and Galway Cities) are holding their values. Personally I think this is nonsense. Some useful debate and monitoring of price drops on Politics.ie below:

    http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/184385-prediction-15-housing-price-jump-next-12-months.html #

    http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/203406-truth-about-property-market.html

  6. I thought the Irish ghost estates were similar to the Spanish ones, built for speculators, not because they were needed to house people.

    I can see this playing out by the government using money transferred from the older generations through taxation/Qe to make up the difference between what peoople can get a mortgage for and what the builders want as profit.

    Intereesting to see the tack the vested interests are taking over here in Ireland now. Their mantra is that "good" areas are picking up. They have abandoned all pretence that house prices outside of affluent urban areas will ever pick up. This can be witnessed in certain media outlets of late.It is nonsense in my opinion, in that house prices will possibly never rise here anywhere again for a whole generation. What is grating though, is the whinging by burrowers that the banks let them have the money, with some even saying banks should be sued for lending too much. The banks can defend themselves, but it is annoying to hear people say that they had no choice but to buy.

    Know someone who viewed a house in rural area 40 mins drive from Dublin. Nice bungalow. good bit of land, €80 K asking price. Reckon same would have fetched circa €300K + about 3 years ago.

  7. The Euro - and particularly a weak Euro - is very beneficial to Germany. It's makes their exports much cheaper to non-Euro countries than it would be if they were using the D-mark or other alternative currency.

    Germany is a huge exporter (biggest in the world by value) and a massive chunk goes outside the EU - to the US and China.

    Of course, they may realise that the wheels are falling off the world economy and feel the price of being left holding the Greek/Spanish/Italian baby isn't worth paying if exports are going to be anaemic anyway :ph34r:

    Nothing is certain in this world, and I have no love for the elitism of EU institutions or the hubris that accompanied the introduction of the Euro. We can see the fallout all too clearly here in Ireland. But the Euro is ultimately a political tool and one that benefits Germany.

    Proponents of returning to old national currencies make some valid points. Others argue that the existence of electronic money make such a reversion even easier. But the sheer logistics of reverting to marcs, pestata, punts, francs etc would be practically impossible in an age of liquid global money. Even such a suggestion would see a run on eurozone bank deposits and a fight of capital to London, Zurich and elsewhere..

    A good article to read is the following link regarding the current state of the Euro written by Prof of Economics Antony Mueller:

    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/antony-mueller/2011/12/30/whats-behind-the-euro-crisis-and-how-will-it-end

    It makes some pertinent points:

    "While the pronouncement of the “euro crisis” has become a main topic in the newsrooms and while a plethora of pundits hasn’t got tired of predicting the end of the common European currency, the facts tell a different story. By the end of 2011 the euro was quoted higher than its long-term average since its inception and the official inflation rate of the euro zone has been kept under two percent. The average debt burden of the countries that make up the euro-zone is less than that of the United States or Japan"

    " A dedicated consumer of financial news soon would have gained the conviction that the Maya prediction of the end of the world in 2012 was nothing compared to the end of the euro and the European Union. Yet while sinister ink was spilled, the exchange rate of the euro held up well and economic growth did not falter in the main economies of the euro-zone. Germany, which represents the largest European economy, experienced the year 2011 as one with steady growth, low interest rates, and a declining unemployment rate. While the pundits were struggling to outcompete each other putting forth one worst case after the next, reality took a different path."

    So economically, the Euro suits Germany nicely. Politically wise:

    "Can one truly exclude the hypothesis that maybe it was the intention of some decision-makers at the top echelon of the European Union to take the Greek debt troubles as an opportunity to push the Eurozone towards a fiscal union?"

    In sum, I think the Euro will survive as overall it actually suits Germany regardless of what the Eurosceptics say.

  8. Some people spend all thier working week though running around working trying to earn enough to pay the mortage though.

    Always bound to be double, treble and upwards thread as if everyone spent a good 10mins checking to see if its been posted or not then by the time they had checked chances are its already been covered and another 10mins of productive time wasted.

    Indeed Russe11, many thanks for your sympathy.Hence the reason why I meander along here at the witching hour, as I suspect along with many others a frazzled lifestyle prevents us from reading every post..if only time permitted. Part of my point in posting too though was the fact that this has made its way onto the Beeb, who airily play it as an amusing lifestyle puff piece. Presumably a Panorama documentary will shortly issue by the state broadcaster decrying why couples have to resort to such lengths to be housed

  9. Sounds depressingly familiar....

    http://www.savills.ie/_news/newsitem.aspx?intSitePageId=112474&intNewsSitePageId=119842-0&intNewsMonth=6&intNewsYear=2012

    “When we contrast 2012 data with the same period last year and even 2010, we find that First Time Buyers led the activity in those years, followed closely by returning Ex-pats and other overseas buyers. The trader-uppers didn’t really feature. We now see a return of families seeking to trade up or down which ultimately it is starting to have a positive effect on activity”.

    Then this yesterday.....

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0625/cso-house-prices-index-sees-first-nationwide-rise.html

    "...with signs of pent-up demand among under-35s seeking to buy a family home"

    God bless them....

  10. And they do look after their staff. My mother worked there, only part-time - one or two days a week. When she died, although it was 20 years after her retirement, they still sent a representative to her funeral.

    Worked for them back in the day when just out of college in early nineties. They certainly took the partnership idea seriously. Management generally had good relations with staff. It was quite paternalistic though, at least back then. Management had a different canteen and were allowed use the front/customer entrance of the store. The company had a national and branch newspaper which was bought for a few pence- not free- by staff. It was casually mentioned to me once by a manager that I didn't always buy the company newspapers, preferrring to read real ones instead. Worker/manager councils were held weekly.Cynical staff argued that the Quaker ethos was a shield for lack of unions and poor pay then. Management and long term staff seemed to buy into the company ethos thing, but many younger staff I knew just gave it lip service, coming as they often were from the more educated strata in society, merely earning a few bob before they moved on to graduate opportunities. Staff reviews were common then, even for junior staff like myself, which seemed bizarre. But as has been said, they seemed good re funerals etc. and had a fondness for remembering old partners.

  11. Down down deeper and down this side of Irish Sea..

    "HOUSE prices are continuing to freefall with average homes now up to 59pc cheaper than during the height of the boom, latest figures show.

    Last month alone, average prices dipped 1.9pc around the country, bringing the overall drop in house values down nearly a fifth (17.4pc) since the start of last year.

    In Dublin, where the plunge has been even sharper, prices came down another 4pc during last month.

    Prices of both houses and apartments in the capital have now plummeted more than 21pc over the past year, and are down 57pc since the peak of the property boom. Apartments alone have fallen by 59pc.

    With average prices in Dublin around €431,000 in February 2007, widely held to be the height of the bubble, which translates to around €246,000 wiped off house values"

    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/246k-wiped-off-average-dublin-home-in-five-years-3034088.html

    And this all based on mortgage lender figures...probably doesn't even show true extent of the carnage...

  12. Someone with a large mansion style house behind a gate and long driveway isn't paying the full mortgage repayments they agreed to pay, when they laid claim to such a nice property. Probably over 6 months of lenders forbearance, then months of lenders trying to reclaim property in court, sees a court order issued.

    Some groups have formed believing the lender has made no loss over the mortgage because of securitization. Implying the debtor should be able to keep their fine house, and fresh young buyers should be forced to pay much higher prices with mortgage debtors in all the nice homes not having to suffer any consequences.

    Valid point....I'm somewhat wary of some of the people arguing for debt forgiveness...are they entirely altruistic?

  13. So the Irish property bubble was bank-rolled by UK banks.

    So Irish 'property developers' made fortunes and lots have got away with it leaving the UK tax-payer to pick up the bill.

    So Irish 'propery developers' helped to drive up house prices in West Wales using money from UK banks.

    So Irish 'property developers' now come to the UK to go bankrupt.

    Um, hasn't anyone thought about taking a gun to lots of these feckers?

    A lot of them are still swanning around continuing to enjoy their jetset lifestyle, being indulged by NAMA, the Irish government investment vehicle that socialised their losses.

    "... Finance Minister Michael Noonan said he will not direct Nama to lower the €200,000 salaries sanctioned for two of those developers as it would be "inappropriate".

    http://www.examiner.ie/ireland/nama-denies-supporting-quinlans-plush-lifestyle-181067.html

  14. MOD EDIT OFFENSIVE RACIST REMARK MOVED

    What exactly are you saying?....That only the Irish were gullible enough to fall for property porn or dim enough to spend millions on premium phone lines to trashy tv shows? Having experienced both phenomena on each side of the water I can assure you they weren't. Walsh is indicative of the dimwitted celebrity obsessed credit bubble culture that engulfed the western world in the last decade.Whether intended or not your comment has a nasty undertone.

  15. You have to wonder just how many other Irish celebrities, politicians, etc, are caught up in the Irish property bust? Perhaps Louis the only one to have the guts to admit to his losses.

    Classic ponzi scheme though. Classic!

    What was aprticularly frightening that many of those who helped create the bust even strted to believe their own bs....

    "Defeated taoiseach Brian Cowen faces seizure of UK buy-to-let property. Court ruling could mean Brian Cowen will lose his Leeds flat in row over troubled buy-to-let investment"

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/06/brian-cowen-uk-property-seizure-threat

  16. "Quote

    http://www.bbc.co.uk...litics-12002783

    BBC

    16 December 2010 Last updated at 14:24

    Unfinished and empty

    The flats at Navenny Place remain unfinished and empty, with locals claiming it has lurched from emblem to eyesore, standing testament to the folly of the Irish building boom.

    The project was financed by Ulster Bank, part of the UK taxpayer bailed-out Royal Bank of Scotland.

    Ulster Bank pulled the plug, the development company went into receivership and the entire residential site went up for sale.

    This is where the numbers become difficult to compute, because this block was once seen as being worth around 9.5m euros (£8bn; $12.6bn).

    Yet the bank put it up for auction with a reserve of just 550,000 euros. That works out at around 11,700 per flat."

    Seems like the Irish aren't the only ones who are not very good at maths. Do you think they know what "bn" stands for? Oh, the Beeb! Maybe they are trying to talk the pound down? And the USD with it.

    Wouldn't bother considering buying any junk like these flats as they are worthless...not worth a red cent imo. They're even talking about knocking down blocks of "apartments" (flats became apartments over here too during the madness) on the periphery of Dublin. Was in Dublin the other night at a work do....struck me that only about one of the seven or eight people there that I knew had a mortgage. Anyone who bought in the last 5 years has simply no discretionary income and cannot afford to socialise.Irish society is now dividing into those who were shafted by being dumb enough into being conned into the property scam and those who weren't. Of course many of those who were unaffected were the babyboomer generation who are doing very nicely in Ireland. A few of us relatively young people who avoided the consensus were derided as unpatriotic idiots..even being told by former PM Ahern at one stage that we should consider suicide. I don't even see the people I know who took out mortgages in the last 5 years. They are the living dead, bereft of any social life, cocooned in their slaveboxes.

    The recently elected Irish government pathetically tried to follow its predecessor by attempting to invigorate the property market by increasing tax reliefs etc. But it's far too late. Property owners will also enjoy paying a flat property tax in Ireland next year.

    Smart money seems to be still hanging on,perhaps with a view to buying land. Many upper-middle class Irish made their money generations ago by buying distressed estates of the impoverished Anglo-Irish gentry after the famine. Looks like the same pattern will reemerge shortly

  17. Interesting article today in Irish Independent:

    Property collapse: From €380,000 to €65,000 – Dublin house sells at 17pc of peak price

    IF you ever needed proof that the property market had collapsed, here it is.

    A Dublin father yesterday bought his ideal family home for €65,000 -- three years after walking away from the three-bed house when the asking price was €380,000......

    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/property-collapse-from-euro380000-to-euro65000-ndash-dublin-house-sells-at-17pc-of-peak-price-2942518.html

    Still overpriced in my own view, but hopefully a sign of the forthcoming return to some semblance of sanity.

    For alook at what Irish punters are thinking, check out:

    http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/176274-house-sells-17-boom-price-has-reality-finally-hit-market.html

  18. It's been a tough time to be Irish. The boom years are a distant memory and now there's just austerity and a long haul back to recovery for a nation crippled by the reckless lending of its banks.

    But, a year after the country was forced to call in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), there is a sign that the people are fighting back and targeting the hated lenders with the "nuclear option" of a mortgage strike.

    Ross Maguire is the co-founder of New Beginning, a new de-facto trade union for Irish mortgage holders and those in debt distress with banks, which aims to recruit 10,000 members in a movement that has strong parallels with the Occupy protests that have swept through scores of countries.

    "The nuclear weapon is for borrowers acting in concert and to say that unless proper and sustainable solutions are put in place which are fair and reasonable, then we should not continue to pay under these current conditions," he says. So does this mean a "mortgage strike" under the New Beginning banner similar to the "rent and rates strike" by nationalists in Northern Ireland protesting against internment without trial in 1971? ....

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/18/ireland-banks-mortgages-repossession-new-beginnings

    Jury's still out on these guys over here in Ireland.Many Irish people are getting fed up of everyone in mortgage difficulties being portrayed as innocent victims; especially the buy to let brigade and those who got into the ponzi scheme purely to make profit. If mortgages are to be "restructured" who's going to take the hit; the taxpayer?

    After all,most of these people were quite happy to take on this mortgage debt when times were "good".

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