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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by Quicken

  1. Somebody said RPI was 5.3%. BUT IIRC you only get back the DIFFERENCE in RPI from when you bought plus the bonus, no? So yuo CUOLD lose out if it goes lower... I bought last year and don't think I'll pile any more in.

    I think you are confusing index with inflation. I also bought last year and I am up around 1k on the back of roughly 5 percent RPI inflation. It's also worth noting that if inflation goes negative (i.e. the index falls) your certificate value does not fall.

    EDIT: typos on phone

  2. Interesting, these are different figures from the ones I originally posted that I got from the NS&I site earlier. Yours appear to be correct.

    Yes, it's strange. They have one set of figures here and another in the how they work tab here.

    It seems they changed their mind from 0.25% AER to 0.5% AER and haven't updated all of the website material.

  3. I have to say compared to what has happened to housing prices in the USA, I do wonder when we ever had the first "dip" here in Britain.

    I feel your pain. In Oxfordshire, the Land Registry figures show us currently (March) just 6.5% below peak nominally (see chart below). We still have an almighty mountain to fall down before houses are affordable, but I think that fall is approaching.




  4. People here have been writing compliants to the BBC ever since I joined regarding inaccuracies and spin.

    It's never done any good.

    Post any reply you get.

    I know, but I'm an optimist. ;)

    I didn't get any response to my previous complaints, but fabrications like this make me angry and the more complaints they receive in response the better IMHO. I think the article reads OK apart from the title and first (bolded) paragraph. Editor spin?


  5. In fact, there are "fewer viewers to houses" now there are more instructions.

    Anyway of getting the BBC to correct their bias mistake.

    I complained as follows:

    This article is factually inaccurate:


    The RICS report does not indicate an increased number of viewings from potential UK house buyers. Indeed they do not record statistics on house viewings.

    The relevant indicator of buyer interest is 'New buyer enquiries' (page 2 of the report). This showed no change, as indicated in the accompanying text on pages 1 and 2 ('new buyer enquiries stabilised in April').

    Please correct this factual inaccuracy.


    We'll see.


    Edit to add: does anyone have a Citywire account to register a similar comment there?

  6. I only applied for the tickets that would be over subscribed (Athletics 100m final and Cycling finals), along with a few qualifiers (Football @ Wembley, Basketball, Swimming, Athletics) where the kids pay their age (£12 & £7). Would be amazed if there was much interest in the less popular sports, they'll give those tickets to schoolchildren.

    Well, there were applications for over 20 million tickets, with only 6.6 million available, so that's roughly 3 times oversubscription on average (but with lots of variation):


    More than half of the 650 sessions are already oversubscribed at the end of the first round of ticket sales, with the following sports reported to have completely sold out: track cycling, rhythmic gymnastics, triathlon, modern pentathlon and the equestrian cross country. Most swimming and tennis sessions have also sold out.


    On a personal note, I have applied for over 20 sessions with my family, taking in hockey, swimming, athletics, tennis and BMX cycling (I didn't try for the ceremonies). I thoroughly expect to miss out on some of the evening swimming and athletics sessions, but if I get them all I will be happy to pay the 1-2k required. This is a once-in-a-lifetime experience after all (I watched every minute of BBC Olympic coverage in 2008).



  7. I heard on the news last night that only 1.8 million people applied from the whole of Europe.

    Yes, but each applicant could apply for up to 20 sessions on a single email address and visa card pairing (visa only), and multiple tickets for each session. So it'll be more like 1.8 million * 10 * 2 for the total number of tickets applied for. I read this morning that the opening ceremony is ten times oversubscribed and I believe the stadium holds 80,000 so that's around 800,000 tickets ordered for that session, with ~720,000 missing out.


  8. As we all know, various government spending components (e.g. Pensions, LHA) are linked to inflation indices (RPI or CPI). As I see it, there are two main problems with this approach:

    1) The inflation figures can be fiddled.

    2) Spending is not directly proportional to income (which it should be for a balanced budget).

    Taking these factors into account, here is my suggestion for a sustainable long-term policy: link government spending components, not to an inflation index, but to the tax take in the previous year. With this form of indexation, it might be possible to go further and set the total budget for the current year to be the tax take from the previous year. Thus, growth would produce a modest surplus, while contraction would allow for modest stimulus spending.

    What do you think?



  9. I doubt it - the BBC pins this on a fall in food prices. There may be a blip that food is cheaper this March than last March, but I don't see a general trend of food getting cheaper: quite the reverse.

    Easter was 4th April last year, so the pre-Easter food sales would have gone into the March data. Lots of overpriced chocolate etc.



  10. http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/analysis/-housing-policy-not-helped-by-fsa-rules/1029396.article

    FirstBuy aims to help 10' date='000 buyers over two years - that’s 1% of the normal first-timer market. Applicants will get an equity loan of 20% of the price of a new-build property, funded by the government and builder.

    Borrowers need a 5% deposit and the loan will be interest-free for five years, repayable on the resale of the property. The details are important when looking at the scheme in conjunction with the regulator’s affordability approach and views on responsible lending.

    Lenders must take into account foreseeable changes in borrowers’ circumstances when assessing the affordability of the loan through its term.

    The additional financial cost, for which the FirstBuy borrower will be liable in five years’ time, is presumably such a change and must be taken into account now.

    So based on today’s income, those using FirstBuy will have to show they can afford the higher payments and loans not on fixed rates must be stress tested against future interest rate rises.

    Will lenders support the scheme if the borrower does not have a guaranteed exit strategy at the end of the preferential period?

    And will borrowers’ current financial positions be able to meet their future liabilities to make the lending responsible today?


    Interesting analysis of the FirstBuy scheme. Unsurprisingly, the responsible lending concept sounds perfectly sensible to me. I just hope the FSA actually brings in these regulations.



  11. http://citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/fsa-clamps-down-on-land-investment/a485344

    The Financial Services Authority (FSA) has secured an order freezing the accounts of Plateau Development and Land after accusing it of operating an unauthorised collective investment scheme.

    The FSA secured the order against land acquisition firm Plateau and sole director Wasim Minhas in the High Court. The regulator declined to comment on the case but said it had five active investigations into land banking schemes which had attracted £42 million from investors.

    Land banks encourage investors to buy bundles of property with the expectation of values rising once the schemes operators have secured planning permission for development.

    Plateau and Minhas have been blocked from selling or trading in land by an order issued by Mr Justice Floyd sitting in the Chancery Division of the High Court.

    They were ordered to hand over the names and contact details of ‘brokers’ and agents used to market or sell land in the United Kingdom. The London Bridge-based firm holds the freehold to land near Cranbrook, according to court documents.

    Paper tiger learning to bite?


  12. I had to show this link. Seems confidence is so unexpectedly high that even the headline underestimates it!!!! That or some factions of the media havent caught up with the message.


    'Third of homeowners expect UK house prices to rise in next six months'

    Three out of five (59%) homeowners in the UK expect house prices to rise over the next six months, according to the latest Zoopla.co.uk Housing Market Sentiment Survey.

    Confidence in the market outlook has strengthened from its record low at the end of last year when only 54% of homeowners expected prices to rise, but remains some way below the levels seen one year ago when four out of five (81%) expected prices to climb.

    Homeowners are also more optimistic about the amount by which they expect house prices to rise in the coming months. According to 7,984 homeowners surveyed by Zoopla.co.uk, house prices are expected to rise by an average of 2.8% over the next six months, noticeably up from the 1.9% predicted three months ago. The number of respondents who expect values to drop over the next 6 months has fallen to 1 in 4 (25%), down from 1 in 3 (33%) in December.

    And, in typical British fashion, homeowners remain more confident about the prospects of the value of their own home compared to those of their neighbours. On average, homeowners predict the value of their own properties to grow by 3.2% over the next six months while they expect overall prices for property in their area to rise by only 2.8%.

    Improved confidence in the future of the property market combined with the arrival of spring has resulted in a rise in the number of homeowners planning to conduct home improvements over the next six months to 40% of all households. And contributing to the increased confidence in the property market is the feeling that lending conditions are improving, with 12% of respondents stating that mortgage availability is better now than 3 months ago.

    The greatest improvement in confidence over the last three months has been in Northern Ireland where 57% of homeowners now expect house prices to rise over the next six months, up from only 42% three months ago. In England 59% of owners expect house prices to rise up from 55% three months ago and in Wales 54% expect prices to climb, up from 49% three months ago. In Scotland confidence remains unchanged from December when 63% of those surveyed expected house prices to rise over the next six months.

    Nicholas Leeming of Zoopla.co.uk, said: “After almost nine months of falling confidence and falling house prices, it looks like the property market is now starting to turn a corner. Falling prices have created attractive buying opportunities and with continued low inventory of property on the market, homeowners are increasingly expecting prices to rise in their local area. We still remain somewhat short of the confidence levels seen in early 2010 but there has been a clear improvement over the previous quarter and this is welcome news.”

    Disregarding the VI spin, this is great bear food. First, confidence has crashed year-on-year from 81% to 59%. That's a big fall, and quite possibly 59% is a record low for the time of year. Second, only 12% of respondents said mortgage availability had increased, meaning 88% did not. :)



  13. I found the following of interest. You can view Shadow 30th Percentile LHA rates for various authorities here:



    For example, Oxford would go from:

    room, 1 bed, 2 bed, 3 bed, 4bed

    £85.38, £160.38, £196.15, £229.75, £323.08, £403.85


    £78.46, £150.00, £173.08, £207.69, £288.46

    That's roughly a ten percent drop in the 2-4 bed range, and much more for the 5 beds.



  14. Here's a reworking of the Dire Straits classic I came up with that expresses some of my feelings as a member of the priced-out generation. I thought it fitted here as I believe it reflects the market psychology of a lot of would-be first time buyers. Hope you like it.

    I want my, I want my HPC

    Now look at them yo-yo's, that's the way you do it

    You keep the rates low on the MPC

    That ain't working, that's the way you do it

    Money for nothing and the work's guilt-free

    Now that ain't working, that's the way you do it

    Let me tell you them guys ain't dumb

    Index-linked pension and a six figure salary

    Never get a blister on their thumb

    We got to work to save a deposit

    9-to-5 is a distant memory

    We got to share or live with our parents

    We don't wanna be doing this at 40

    The little banker with the pinstripe and the Rolex

    Yeah buddy, that's his own hair

    That little banker got his own jet airplane

    That little banker he's a millionaire

    We got to work to save a deposit

    9-to-5 is a distant memory

    We got to share or live with our parents

    We don't wanna be doing this at 40

    Look at that, look at that

    I should have learned to play at banking

    I should have learned to roll the dice

    Look at that MP, they got it flipping second homes all the time

    When can we have some?

    And he's up there, what's that? Printing press noises?

    Banging on the QE like a chimpanzee

    Oh, that ain't working, that's the way you do it

    Get your money for nothing and the work's guilt-free

    We got to work to save a deposit

    9-to-5 is a distant memory

    We got to share or live with our parents

    We don't wanna be doing this at 40

    Listen here

    Now that ain't working, that's the way you do it

    You keep the rates low on the MPC

    That ain't working, that's the way you do it

    Money for nothing and the work's guilt-free

    Money for nothing and work guilt-free

    Get your money for nothing, and the work's guilt-free

    Money for nothing, work guilt-free

    Look at that, look at that

    Get your money for nothing, and the work's guilt-free

    I want my, I want my, I want my HPC

    Money for nothing and work guilt-free

    Easy, easy

    That ain't working


    I want my, I want my, I want my HPC

  15. can i make a point about this - up to 9 or 10 years ago, the public sector really did earn a fair bit less than the private sector; part of the compensation for this was the generous final salary pension scheme

    I think, even as a public sector basher, that these accrued rights can't be watered down, given this context, they were earned under different conditions.

    There IS tho an overlap, but a small one, where public sector pensions were excellent as well as salaries being excellent at the same time, but in practical terms it is probably not worth arguing the toss over, I guess.

    True, but we're talking about accrued rights to a final salary pension (component) and the final salary is calculated in the current era, not the previous one.


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