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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by Quicken

  1. 30 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:


    There is a separate tax day announcement now on 23 March - proposals to reform CGT, business rates and other taxes may be confirmed then (e.g. consultations and calls for evidence not final conclusions). So any changes or reforms are for next year's budget if at all.


    Got to give the rich fair warning and time to avoid.

  2. 2 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

    Seems while he can find money for the stamp duty holiday extension to 30 June (and to September re the £250k tax free threshold) the Chancellor was unable to find the cash to continue fund the £20 a week top up to universal credit. This will end from the autumn.

    Buy to let landlords 1 - the disabled, the poor and people who have lost their jobs (e.g. due to cancer or serious illnesses) who rent from them Nil!


    Both measures extended until the autumn. So, the same.

  3. 3 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

    1. Date you sold

    2. I didn't let Barclays know and have transferred £250k from Kraken with no questions asked, so far.

    Yup. If you sell for eur or usd and only later convert to gbp, it's still the day you sold for fiat. They just apply the daily bank exchange rate to calculate how much gbp equivalent you sold for.

    HSBC have generally been fine about large withdrawals from kraken for me. They do ask (AML) questions about source of funds and source of wealth when traferring large sums out (and may fire up the fraud calls) but don't have a problem with crypto and don't ask for documentary evidence ime.

    TransferWise are quite another matter. Very demanding and nosy (bla bla regulatory requirements). Wanted to see the exchange records from kraken, with my name/acct details visible as well as payslips and tax returns, ffs. I told them to do one, cancelled my transfer and am closing the account. We'll see if Starling are better.



  4. 7 hours ago, Houdini said:

    I don't, I got fed up seeing 15 year old quotes taken out of context to justify an attacking a poster who argued with him.

    Yes, but what passion and zeal! What commitment to have a library of quotes ready to go for Wall of Text time. A quality of rant far exceeding the strangeness of Erranta. Imagine what Venger would have made of this thread.

  5. 14 hours ago, The Spaniard said:

    The BBC has many variants of COVID fatality.

    Died from C, died with C, died after testing positive for C, died from illness associated with C ...etc...  

    In the US the CDC's guidelines for filling in death certificates are hugely biased towards a COVID cause of death and hospitals are given substantial cash incentives for recording patients as COVID.

    There seems to be a concerted agenda to maximise COVID fatalities.


    No need for conspiracy. The total excess deaths over five year averages tell the story of the outbreak.

    E.g. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53233066

  6. On 08/07/2020 at 21:54, sammersmith said:

    Do you think this paradigm is with us now and until the end of time? It's been 15 years, and this is a long time, but do you feel this could continue for another 15, or 50, or 100 years? Will there never be enough stimulus that could increase prices and the, increasingly priced out, population will always want higher prices? 

    This is an honest question as I often hear people saying that this is a new normal but to my mind 15 years is short in the grand scheme of things, and in the last five years the stimulus seems to lack the boom effect of 2013/14. 

    I remember the last time people were yelling New Paradigm to explain why fundamentals didn't matter any more. It was just before the Dot Com bubble burst.

  7. 18 minutes ago, xxxx said:

    I retire too with a smile on my face.  This is because house prices are now falling and the market is at long last correcting itself.  All those priced out, hard working families will finally have a home of their own.  Does it make you happy that families are forced into rented accommodation?  Is that what makes you smile?

    It is also OK to savour some schadenfreude over the well-deserved BTL comeuppance. Sweet, sweet schadenfreude. I miss Venger

  8. 1 minute ago, Dreamcasting said:

    Spot on. The guy throws insults due to his insecurities. It's a weird sort of coping mechanism.

    Fortunately, this site has very limited exposure to the general public, therefore there is little risk to others. Most people have never heard of this forum because the majority of people don't have any interest in typing "House price crash" into Google. And I think if anyone does stumble across this forum, a little digging, researching and critical analysis of posting history, will show that none of the predictions made ended up being right. Following this site and advice would have cost people an awful lot of money these past 15 years. Fortunately, I spotted the flaws in the typical thought process of the hard core crashers, but I do enjoy popping in to have a chuckle at the latest crazy thoughts. We also should not forget the few on this site who STR'd, who just so happen also have a vented interest in property. They hoped they'd get rich by timing the fake market, selling at what they thought was the top. What they did in actual fact was priced themselves out of the market. It should come as no surprise at the level of abuse you will receive on this forum, however that is just an emotional reaction from a bitter person who got greedy all those years ago, and ended up being laughed at once they were found out. Now they're going to be left holding a bad of confetti, and still no house. Bless.

    Bolded part is false for me. Very, very false.

    BTL is evil. The perpetrators might not realise, but it is. That is the cult thinking. What each BTL purchase (not build) does in net terms is to turn one owner occupier household into one renting household. All sustained by an ever-growing debt mountain. It won't end well.

  9. 23 hours ago, Wayward said:

    You are wide of the mark here.  Many of us on this forum have not invested in UK housing but we are invested in the real economy,  own businesses,  have extensive share portfolios etc. 

    Yup. It was through discussions here with Scepticus that I decided to get into Crypto in 2014, and was subsequently able to diversify into shares, P2P etc. Rather better returns than property, and NO DEBT

  10. 2 minutes ago, Deckard said:

    Thank you Quicken, it's good to see you back here.

    Nothing wrong in buying when you feel it's right for you and your family - well done :)

    Thanks Deckard. Yes, it was the right move for us to reduce our monthly outgoings as I just retired from employment and now just run my investment business which has sailed through the rough seas of Lockdown admirably thus far.

  11. Love this thread. Bravo Deckard. I drifted away from here, but have been popping back in a bit more lately to see the show. Naturally, prices are now set to crash as I bought (small place, cash) in December 2019, and moved in just before lockdown.

    Not to worry though. I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket. I used to say the tipping point for a crash will be when the house price indices hit 150k again. Bring it on I say. I wouldn't want to be highly leveraged in this market.


  12. Not so much a prediction, but Wirecard has chequed out:


    Turns out they cunningly 'misplaced' 1.9 billion euro down the back of the sofa, and after the FT ran stories on how dodgy they were even the auditors EY noticed:



    It comes after the German firm last week disclosed a €1.9bn (£1.7bn) hole in its accounts.

    Former boss Markus Braun has since been arrested and accused of inflating Wirecard's finances to make them appear healthier to investors and customers.

    The firm's creditors stand to lose billions of euros from the scandal.

    The controversy erupted last week when auditors EY refused to sign off on firm's company's accounts, having been unable to locate the missing €1.9bn.

    The Munich based firm, which employs almost 6,000 staff in 26 countries, initially claimed the money was held in accounts at two banks in the Philippines.

    But on Monday Wirecard said the money simply may not exist.


    Cracking statement from the company on this by the way. 'Prevailing likelihood':




    "The Management Board of Wirecard assesses on the basis of further examination that there is a prevailing likelihood that the bank trust account balances in the amount of 1.9 billion EUR do not exist,"


  13. 58 minutes ago, Si1 said:

    why can't commercial landlords just go bust? because they're tories?

    Not quite that simple. Pensions.




    Recent research by Estates Gazette, a commercial property weekly, showed that as much as 60% of all UK retail space is owned either directly or indirectly by the public, including pension funds, the public sector and individual shareholders.

    It's been a secure form of income until now.


  14. On 02/06/2020 at 18:48, Chunketh said:

    Also, by lowering the tax free rate to 20%....

    A higher rate tax payer would pay 20% going in then up to 40-45% coming out....60-65%

    An additional rate tax payer would by 25% going in and up to 45% coming out 65-70%

    Slap on your VAT lets make it an even 80-85% or 85-90%. Lets pray they keep NI out of the equation.

    Clearly a bonkers idea and there are plenty of other places to go. Abolishing the inheritance gambit <75. The rules there should be uniform, with the income taxed as it would have been for the original recipient.

    CGT on house sales. Increase VAT on non-essentials.

    Or maybe...just maybe....TAX COMPANIES PROPERLY!!! 

    Rock and a hard place for Rishi. Companies are already looking at mass redundancies with the slightest whiff of tapering the furlough free money. Increasing taxes on limited companies will just accelerate redundancy plans.

  15. On 02/06/2020 at 14:49, Dorkins said:

    National insurance is such an appalling tax, it distorts everything (hiding wage income as investment income e.g. contractors paying themselves dividends) and hides how heavily taxed labour is. The sooner it is merged into income tax the better, but I won't hold my breath.

    Once-in-a-generation opportunity for a structural reform like this. Never let a good crisis go to waste etc. Here's hoping.

    Or how about an Abgeltungsteuer? A flat tax on private income from capital, including dividends, interests and capital gains (among others). Flat tax rate is 25% in Germany (plus the 'temporary' 5.5 % solidarity surcharge they added to many taxes in 1991)  


  16. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/feb/10/home-ownership-ons-rent

    "In a reflection of surging house prices and a lost decade for wage growth since the financial crisis, the Office for National Statistics found that a third of 35- to 44-year-olds in England were renting from a private landlord in 2017, compared with fewer than one in 10 in 1997.

    The government statistics agency said home ownership had become increasingly concentrated among people over the age of 65. Almost three-quarters of adults in the generation that includes baby boomers born after the second world war own their own homes outright, up from just over half in 1993"

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