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Everything posted by Quicken

  1. Hehe, yes I expect a lot of this going forwards. Personally, I've paid far more CGT than income tax to date which has made me realise how ridiculous the under-taxing of cap gains and dividends is.
  2. I can't see them going down that sort of discriminatory route personally, and nor should they for various reasons including international treaties, tit-for-tat and basic decency. I'd rather they revoked non dom status of course, but pigs might fly.
  3. 1970s stagflation, hyperinflation, or the mystical 'high growth with inflation'? UK productivity numbers this century, not to mention demographics, do not provide a good basis for the latter.
  4. Basically any taxation has avoidance strategies. It isn't easy to collateralise everything though surely? CGT is just laughably low compared with income tax (basically half), with a massive annual allowance. I'd like to see a German style system with no specific CGT. The flat tax (Abgeltungsteuer) is 25%. Of course they have the solidarity surcharge but it's broadly applied and a separate issue. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abgeltungsteuer
  5. OK hive mind. Covid spending has been, to use the popular term, unprecedented. Big tax rises are surely coming after some can kicking. But where? It would make all sorts of sense to tax capital gains and dividends more like income, but will they do something sensible that hurts rich donors? What about all those allowances that keep accountants busy? Inheritance tax? Income tax? NI? VAT? Land taxes (chance would be a fine thing)? So what do we reckon? I am genuinely stumped.
  6. Aye. Scotland dropped the stamp duty wheeze in April. Cheekier rates too: https://revenue.scot/taxes/land-buildings-transaction-tax/residential-property
  7. Slough bankrupt: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/02/slough-goes-bankrupt-after-discovery-of-100m-black-hole-in-budget "An audit revealed in May that the council’s reserves – thought to be £7.5m – were only £500,000 after it emerged they had been drained to correct an accounting error made two years previously that had overestimated the council’s income from a commercial joint-venture, Slough Urban Renewal."
  8. https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated "PHE estimates two-dose effectiveness against hospital admission with the Delta infections at around 94%. We can perhaps assume there is at least 95% protection against Covid-19 death, which means the lethal risk is reduced to less than a twentieth of its usual value. But the risk of dying from Covid-19 is extraordinarily dependent on age: it halves for each six to seven year age gap. This means that someone aged 80 who is fully vaccinated essentially takes on the risk of an unvaccinated person of around 50 – much lower, but still not nothing, and so we can expect some deaths."
  9. Well yes but we are talking about the real world. And yes I didn't really give that statement context. First, it's herd protection which is fine and I do follow the rules (most do not). Second, social distancing is always more effective. Third, the better understanding of transmission from contact tracing suggests ventilation has a larger effect, and you're very unlikely to get transmission walking past people outside. So it's right they have been dropped from being required outside. I get the swiss cheese multiplicative measures idea by the way but it needs to be proportionate. Not opening your mouth has a big impact. So talking, puffing from exercise, and especially shouting and singing are all bad. But humans are social creatures and talking and seeing people's faces is a primal need. I am hopeful a largely double vaccinated population can get that back. It's important.
  10. Eh? USS is thin gruel. I prefer the MRC scheme. 😉
  11. Member contributions have gone up by over 50 percent since the pre 2011 final salary scheme. Employer contributions have also risen. Employer plus employee only used to total 22.35%. Now it is over 30 percent for cpi (used to be rpi) uprated career average. These cuts were explicity made to reduce a notional deficit. It is much less generous now. https://www.theguardian.com/higher-education-network/2011/mar/22/university-lecturers-pension-dispute
  12. The hospitals and intensive care units in the uk were filling up with covid 19 patients. Now, they are neither filling up with covid 19 patients nor those with any vaccine side effects. The vaccines work, and they're safe. Masks have always been of questionable value however. Thankfully, vaccine conspiracy theorists are very much in the minority in the uk now. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
  13. For those wondering how these generous public sector pensions work, here's a breakdown from USS, the funded university pension scheme: https://www.uss.co.uk/for-members/youre-a-new-joiner/what-youll-pay The number that should stand out is 21.1 percent employer contribution. This is why full economic costing for university staff is a lot higher than salary... USS is currently career average 1/75. The boomers got a more generous final salary model with lower contributions.
  14. I'll hold my hands up and admit I doubted this one as it'd be incredibly obvious for the treasury and home office (austerity anyone?). But no, here it is in black and white. Genuinely shocking: https://www.entitledto.co.uk/help/pension-contributions They must be relying on the fact most folk are spend it all now merchants.
  15. Funnily enough, when you are looking at contributing to a private pension, investment income (e.g. p2p lending) is not deemed eligible ('relevant') as income despite being taxed at the marginal rate (albeit with no NI). Really annoyed me when I realised that and caused me to completely abandon SIPPs and adopt an alternative long term savings model. Complicated and inflexible, pensions.
  16. Logical consequence of NIRP. The BoE of England is moving towards NIRP too. Guaranteed misallocation of capital - centrally enforced. It won't end well.
  17. Interesting priorities revealed by each party's top asks for the Scottish budget: https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19142012.kate-forbes-calls-cross-party-support-ahead-scottish-budget-vote/ Labour - Massive care worker pay rise Lib Dems - Farming, councils, education Tories - STAMP DUTY CUT!!!
  18. Pensions companies have been getting into residential property for years (REITs post-2006). Hell, farmers have diversified into the residential landlord business. I don't see why John Lewis would be hamstrung by a lack of experience. Corporate strategy is another question.
  19. You're clearly more optimistic than me about the likely tax take in the next couple of years. Slow motion train crash in exporters and financials. Think the bounce back loans will be repaid? EDIT: In my book, the BoE buying 90% of new debt IS budget desperation.
  20. With a bit of joined up thinking and a bit of budget desperation, they'll probably move it to 20% deduction across the board for pension contributions rather than the 40% giveaway. With auto-enrollment bedding in, the pensions industry is less dependent on the high-rollers.
  21. Sounds about right. So, more than the teachers who have to get back to work so all the parents can too, or the scientists who do the sequencing work on virus strains and come up with vaccines, or the care home workers etc. Also more than the supermarket workers who've also been 'keeping the country alive' over the last year. To be fair, I think Boris and co. painted themselves into a populist corner with all this clap for our NHS heroes stuff.
  22. Not TCoN, but surely any policy designed to increase asset prices disproportionately benefits those with most assets. Superdeductions look like a good elite tax avoidance wheeze too on first view.
  23. I think the property market interventions overall are small beer. At least they didn't revisit SMI, or BTL tax deductions (AFAIK). It will be interesting to see the Scottish government response in the build up to the elections in May.
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